2022 Carolina Panthers win totals: Baker Mayfield could help reach mediocrity

The Carolina Panthers won five games last season. That is three seasons in a row at that total but last year was a decline with the longer 17-game season.

Last year's offense, led mostly by quarterback Sam Darnold, finished 30th in yards and 29th in scoring. Top running back Christian McCaffery was not fully available, though that probably would not have made much of a difference overall. It is that context that pushed them to draft Matt Corral as a possible long-term solution at quarterback and to trade for Baker Mayfield from the Cleveland Browns.

The defense, on the other hand, was fourth against the pass and helped them to be second in the NFL in yards allowed. However, they lost their top pass rusher, linebacker Hassan Reddick, who signed with Philadelphia. Getting to the quarterback is crucial to having good defenses in the modern NFL so they have to figure that out.

With the Mayfield trade, there is a lot of buzz about Carolina right now. Unfortunately for their fans, it is not going to last very long into a season that is not likely to produce much more than what we have seen over the last few seasons. 

Carolina Panthers Win Total

Over 6.5 (+105)
Under 6.5 (-125)

Best Bet Over 6.5

Per the article, during last week it is hard to see how the moves to get Mayfield has a lot of immediate impact on the Panthers. I think that Mayfield raises the floor at quarterback overall but it does not seem like a difference-making move, especially if he doesn't earn the starting job before the season.

It's a fun bit of scheduling that Carolina hosts Cleveland the first week of the season. That adds a little bit of juice for the Panthers. They have a chance to get off to a good start with a trip to New York to face the Giants the following week. Even a home game against New Orleans looks winnable in Week 3.

After that, the schedule definitely stiffens with five of the next six games against playoff teams from a year ago. The outlier in that time is a game at Atlanta on Oct. 30, and they play Atlanta again two weeks later on a Thursday night. Those games are must-wins in terms of getting to the over.

The Panthers have a bye week to start December and then are going to need a couple of wins when they travel to Seattle and then return home to Pittsburgh and Detroit. That is where they could get that seventh win before finishing on the road against Tampa and New Orleans.

There is not a lot of margin for error with the Panthers but I can see a seven-win season. I am not sure another couple of wins is enough to save coach Matt Rhule's job but it is better than the alternative and we can make some money. I am curious to see if the market moves on this team as we could have gotten them at 5.5 before the recent trade. 

The positive payoff is what grabs my attention with this bet. It also might be worth considering cashing out early if they do start strong.