2022 Detroit Lions win total: Going from laughingstock to just above

The first season of the Dan Campbell era saw just 3 wins. The Lions were not really a pushover though, just undermanned at most spots.

It also had to sting a little to see former QB Matt Stafford lead the Rams to a Super Bowl. He was not going to lead the Lions there, but that was the general idea when they selected him with the top overall pick many years ago.

The trade of Stafford netted them Jared Goff, who was a capable signal caller (though much maligned). The simple fact is that he does not have a ton to work with. Detroit had a hard time creating big plays on offense, which is likely to be the case again this season. They could have addressed that in the draft but instead they went with a high-motor edge rusher with their top draft pick. That selection seems pretty safe, and they should see some production there as a result but it is mostly the same cast of offensive characters. The offense average under 20 PPG a year ago. It is hard to win down there. 

The defense was second to last in points allowed last season and third from the bottom in sacks. Their top pick can address some of that but Detroit will need more than that if they are going to be more successful than a year ago. 

I know the Lions had some close calls last season but it is interesting to see the market be so bullish on Detroit heading into the season. They would need to double their win total from a year ago to cover the over. That's a lot to ask. 

Detroit Lions Win Total

Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

Best Bet: Under 6.5

Given these numbers have been out for a while, I am guessing the fact that this is still -110 on both sides means the Lions just aren't drawing much interest. For me, this looks like an easy under play, even though the Lions do not have anything close to a difficult schedule. 

Their division (the NFC North) is playing the NFC East this season. That is a boon to solid teams like the Packers and Vikings but for a team like Detroit, there is no such thing as an easy game right now. 

Detroit has the benefit of having three of its first four games at home, including games against Philadelphia and Washington in the first two weeks. I think both are going to be losses but I give them a good chance to break into the win column in Week 4 at Ford Field against Seattle. 

The simple fact is that other than hosting the rival Chicago Bears, and Jacksonville Jaguars, it is tough to find games where the Lions are going to be favored. Playing at both New York teams is a nice draw but both of those games are on the road and they are likely to be underdogs in each. 

Another road game at Carolina now looks a little tougher with the Panthers deciding to add QB Baker Mayfield into the mix. 

Detroit lost five games a season ago by less than a touchdown. Some see that as a bit of bad luck but with this team only marginally improved (at best) it is hard to see how they turn even half of those types of games into wins this upcoming season. What is going to put them over the top other than a little more experience on the sidelines this year?

I still like Detroit to compete hard like they did a year ago but that is still not going to convert into many wins.