2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers win totals: Tom Brady looking to go out on top

With the NFL season fast approaching and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers among legit Super Bowl contenders, it is easy to forget just what transpired this offseason in Tampa Bay.

First, quarterback Tom Brady retired. Then he was back, but head coach Bruce Arians was out, replaced by former Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles (who has not been very successful as an NFL head coach). Oh, and tight end Rob Gronkowski has said he is done for good, whatever that is worth.

All of that is just a pretext for a season that will be Brady's last in the NFL. The Bucs are still a serious contender to get back to the Super Bowl (and win it), but they are not really anyone's favorite right now, especially in an NFC where the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers might be better than they were a season ago. 

Nobody is expecting a drop-off, but it is hard to see how Tampa has closed the gap between itself and the top teams in the NFL. The Bucs' win total is high because they are talented — and they play in a weak division.  

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers win totals

Over 11.5 (+105)
Under 11.5 (-125)

Best Bet: Over 11.5

I was a little surprised at the pricing of these propositions. I did not think the over side would be the better value. Are you really going to fade a motivated "Brady Bunch" against their schedule? 

The Bucs start the season with back-to-back road games, but they should still be able to get off to a good start, as they will be favored against Dallas and New Orleans. 

That start is followed by three straight home games, and that pattern of two on the road and then three at home is repeated over the first half of the season. 

That first stretch of home games is tough with Green Bay and Kansas City back-to-back (then Atlanta). Getting those games at home looks good for the Bucs to show they are a contender early. 

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The next set of road games is at Pittsburgh and Carolina, both very winnable, and the following set of home games is too, with the exception of a contest against the Super Bowl Champion Rams. Los Angeles eliminated the Bucs from the playoffs last season, so the game will be highly anticipated. The game after is a potential letdown spot but the team will really be in trouble if they lose to Seattle. 

The Buccaneers have their bye in Week 11, and after that, the schedule is not too taxing. The following week, they have to go to Cleveland, but it looks like they are not going to be preparing for Deshaun Watson, so they will get the Browns in an awkward spot. 

They also play all three of their division mates again, which should lead to three more wins. As long as Brady is still a master of his powers, they will have a chance to win away at Arizona and San Francisco, and at home against Cincinnati. 

The division they are in is what makes this win total probable as Brady makes his farewell tour through the league. If you had to pay a premium for it, I might look the other way but not with that payoff. Tampa might finish the year with the best record in the NFC. 

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