2023 Fantasy Football: Analyzing Week 12 Chalk

Examining how you handled the chalk is essential to analyzing previous play. That said, it is arguably more important to scrutinize how the field dealt with the chalk because the information gained can be added to your decision-making process.

Suppose the field is making considerable mistakes in processing ownership percentages and in how the chalk interacts with other pieces on a slate. In that case, I can confidently alter course and leverage those inefficiencies in our favor.

I will break down rosters each week, examining processes along the way. This piece will examine the state of chalk from the previous week to see if any meaningful takeaways develop.

Week 12 Chalk

We’ll start this process by going back to my analysis of each piece of chalk expected to be rostered by more than 20 percent of the field.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

Trey McBride saw a healthy nine targets against the Los Angeles Rams. However, he failed to put up a meaningful guaranteed prize pool (GPP) score, catching seven of nine passes for 60 yards and being held out of the end zone. The roughly 2.5x salary multiplier fell short at extreme ownership.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Seeing a player come in at more than 30 percent ownership in a matchup as poor as the one Jonathan Taylor had in Week 12 was surprising. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Week 12 in the top five in yards allowed per carry and in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. The Buccaneers hadn’t allowed a rushing score through their first 10 games. 

Taylor managed 21.1 DK points behind the first two rushing scores against this elite run defense, checking in as just more than a 3x salary multiplier.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram entered Week 12 with just three red zone targets through 10 games played and a laughable 4.4 aDOT. Yet the field insisted on playing him at ownership. 

Engram’s five catches for 49 yards fell below expectations, returning less than 2x his Week 12 salary.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Jr. was in a good spot entering the week. He’s the top option in the Indianapolis Colts’ pass game and played against the Buccaneers’ heavy Cover 1 and Cover 3 defense. 

Still, he failed to return a 4x salary multiplier on 23.7 DK points but was a pivotal piece to the slate due to the lack of points throughout the league in Week 12.

New England Patriots D/ST

I’m just going to post what I said about this play leading up to the weekend: “Are we really excited to play a defense generating the fifth-lowest rate of pressure and just 10 total turnovers through 10 games played at ownership? I’m not.” 

Yeah, it went about like that for the New England Patriots.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Kevin Byard was brought into Philadelphia before Week 7 to boost the Eagles’ defensive prowess against tight ends. We saw how he more or less erased Travis Kelce in Week 11, and he limited opposing tight end production once again vs. the Bills. 

Dalton Kincaid managed just five catches for 38 yards and fell well below a 2x salary multiplier.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a combined five 100-yard receiving games among Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Engram this season. That makes it unlikely a single pass-catcher from this team returns a GPP score you couldn’t win without. 

That trend continued in Week 12. Ridley had 89 yards and a score, and Kirk posted 84 yards on just four receptions. Obviously, Kirk failed to return a 4x salary multiplier in Week 12.

Chalk Hit Rate

Since Week 10, six of 22 chalk players have returned a 4x salary multiplier. This week was the poorest return yet. None of the seven players on more than 20 percent of rosters sniffed a 4x salary multiplier. 

Yes, this was a weird week with muted scoring, but the trend remains. It was also interesting to see the field place certainty behind a running back (Taylor) in the worst matchup he had seen all season. 

Our sample size of chalk hit rates is still extremely small, meaning no glaring assumptions can be ascertained. We’ll continue tracking this data moving forward.

Roster Examination