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Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

2023 NFL Week 18 Fantasy Football Projections

Originally posted on The 33rd Team | By Ahaan Rungta | Last updated 1/5/24

At The 33rd Team, we use machine learning to project player performance and fantasy production week-to-week to help you make well-informed decisions about your lineups. In last week’s article, we were notably higher than consensus on Jake Browning (finished QB7) and notably lower than consensus on Ezekiel Elliott (finished RB27) and Calvin Ridley (finished WR50).

Below, you can find the model’s projections for Week 18 by position. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and PPR leagues and their projected rank. Some short commentary is provided for some notable players for whom the model is well ahead of consensus.

Disclaimer: We do not recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Week 18 Projections

Quarterbacks

Team	Player	Pass Attempts	Pass Completions	Pass Yards	Pass TDs	Rushes	Rush Yards	Rush TDs	Fantasy Points	Fantasy Points (PPR)
Buffalo Bills	Josh Allen	36.9	25.8	266	2.2	5.2	25	0.4	22.5	22.5
Philadelphia Eagles	Jalen Hurts	32	21.8	247.1	1.5	10.7	49.7	0.6	22.4	22.4
Dallas Cowboys	Dak Prescott	33.8	24.5	293.4	2.4	2.4	10.2	0.2	22.1	22.1
Chicago Bears	Justin Fields	36.7	22	241.2	1.4	7.6	43.7	0.3	19.7	19.7
Minnesota Vikings	Nick Mullens	38.5	22.2	265.4	2.1	1.7	11.1	0	18.1	18.1
Cincinnati Bengals	Jake Browning	36.4	22.8	215	1.9	3.2	18.8	0.2	17.2	17.2
Arizona Cardinals	Kyler Murray	29.9	20.2	206.8	1.2	5.1	32.4	0.5	17.5	17.5
Washington Commanders	Sam Howell	43.4	24.1	256.3	1.5	3.7	21.8	0.1	16.5	16.5
Houston Texans	C.J. Stroud	33.9	21.2	224.7	2.2	1.3	6.5	0.1	16.8	16.8
Green Bay Packers	Jordan Love	33.2	20.8	209	2	3.8	14.4	0.2	16.7	16.7
Seattle Seahawks	Geno Smith	32.3	20.2	240.2	1.9	1.3	6.8	0.1	16.7	16.7
Los Angeles Chargers	Easton Stick	35.6	20.5	214.3	1.7	5.3	25.8	0.1	16.2	16.2
Carolina Panthers	Bryce Young	38.9	22.4	236	1.6	2.4	13.2	0	15.3	15.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Baker Mayfield	33.1	21.3	225.7	1.7	2.4	8.5	0.1	15.4	15.4
Indianapolis Colts	Gardner Minshew	34.7	20.8	238.3	1.4	1.5	8	0.1	14.8	14.8
Detroit Lions	Jared Goff	35.6	19.6	210.5	1.9	0.7	1	0.1	14.8	14.8
Miami Dolphins	Tua Tagovailoa	33.5	20.9	225.5	1.7	0.7	2.1	0.1	14.8	14.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	Trevor Lawrence	35.4	21.2	227.8	1.4	2.2	12.5	0.1	14.6	14.6
New Orleans Saints	Derek Carr	35	22.8	221.5	1.7	1.4	4.5	0.1	14.5	14.5
San Francisco 49ers	Sam Darnold	30.2	18.1	226.6	1.5	2.3	3.3	0.1	14.4	14.4
Atlanta Falcons	Taylor Heinicke	33.4	19.2	209.4	1.6	1.5	6.3	0.1	14.2	14.2
Kansas City Chiefs	Blaine Gabbert	38.8	22.3	208.6	1.5	1.9	9.5	0	13.5	13.5
Los Angeles Rams	Carson Wentz	36.3	21.8	220.1	1.6	0.6	1.9	0.1	13.6	13.6
Las Vegas Raiders	Aidan O'Connell	30	18	205.7	1.5	1.2	4.8	0.1	13.5	13.5
New York Giants	Tyrod Taylor	30.9	19.3	200.3	1.2	1.9	8.8	0.1	12.8	12.8
Cleveland Browns	Jeff Driskel	35.3	19.4	224.5	1.1	1.3	7.2	0.1	12.4	12.4
Denver Broncos	Jarrett Stidham	31.3	18.8	162.1	1.6	1.8	10.9	0	12.6	12.6
Pittsburgh Steelers	Mason Rudolph	34.7	19.9	198.3	1.2	1.2	3.2	0.2	12.2	12.2
Tennessee Titans	Ryan Tannehill	33.3	19.5	204	1.2	1.5	4.2	0.1	11.7	11.7
New England Patriots	Bailey Zappe	35.8	20.6	154.4	1.3	1.8	4.6	0.1	10.4	10.4
New York Jets	Trevor Siemian	30	18.8	159.2	1	1.7	6.8	0.1	9.8	9.8
Baltimore Ravens	Tyler Huntley	28.3	18.4	102.8	0.7	3.3	17.3	0.2	8.2	8.2

Easton Stick (QB12)

The Chargers look for one final bit of vengeance against the Chiefs for some pride to close the regular season and will have to do so with backup Easton Stick, who has thrown for 215-plus passing yards in each of his last three games but is coming off back to back games without a single passing touchdown. That streak should end this week against a Chiefs team resting several starters. Stick's big play ability combined with his rushing upside gives him fantasy QB1-tier upside in Week 18.

Running backs

Player	Rushes	Rush Yards	Rush TDs	Targets	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points	Fantasy Points (PPR)
Travis Etienne	20.9	83.5	0.9	4.4	2.9	25.2	0.1	18.3	19.8
Alvin Kamara	15.9	52.3	0.4	7	5.9	46.7	0.2	16.5	19.5
Jonathan Taylor	23.9	87.2	0.7	2.6	1.8	12.5	0.1	15.7	16.6
Bijan Robinson	15	70.6	0.4	5.8	3.7	31.7	0.2	15.6	17.5
Kenneth Walker III	18.9	86.6	0.8	1.6	1.1	4.8	0.1	15.3	15.8
Rachaad White	17	66.5	0.6	4.1	3.3	27	0.1	15.1	16.7
Joe Mixon	13	50	0.5	5.5	4	35.7	0.2	14.8	16.8
Tony Pollard	19.2	76.5	0.7	2.5	1.9	11	0.2	14.7	15.7
Aaron Jones	15.2	46.5	0.6	4.2	2.8	27	0.1	13.3	14.7
Jaylen Warren	14.1	60.7	0.5	4.3	3	21.5	0.1	13.2	14.8
Raheem Mostert	14.5	77.6	0.5	1.7	1.3	9.4	0.1	12.9	13.5
Saquon Barkley	18.1	74.7	0.7	1.5	1	5.6	0.1	12.8	13.3
James Conner	15.4	74.7	0.6	1.5	1.1	5.2	0.1	12.7	13.3
Elijah Mitchell	15.6	54.8	0.7	3	2.2	17.5	0.1	12.7	13.8
Derrick Henry	14.6	56.4	0.8	2.5	1.7	13.1	0	12.6	13.5
Ezekiel Elliott	17.2	64.6	0.3	4.5	3.2	21.4	0.1	12.2	13.8
Breece Hall	14.8	39.9	0.5	5.3	3.9	28.9	0.1	12	14
Devin Singletary	11.7	47.7	0.4	4.2	3.4	23.9	0.1	11.9	13.5
Javonte Williams	11.9	47	0.2	4.7	3.5	19.9	0.3	11.6	13.4
James Cook	14.4	59.5	0.2	2.8	2.1	17.1	0.2	10.7	11.8
Austin Ekeler	10.7	43	0.2	4.4	2.6	24.3	0.2	10.7	12
D'Andre Swift	13.5	62.8	0.4	1.6	1.2	8.3	0.1	10.6	11.2
Zamir White	17.3	79	0.1	1.5	1.1	7.1	0.1	10.3	10.9
Tyjae Spears	8.8	40.6	0.2	5	3.6	28.1	0.1	10.1	11.9
Kyren Williams	5.1	22.5	0.2	4.5	3.3	27.2	0.4	9.9	11.5
Devon Achane	7.9	45.2	0.2	3.3	2.3	18.8	0.1	9.7	10.9
Chuba Hubbard	16.2	47.5	0.2	4.1	3	15.7	0.1	9.7	11.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10.3	45.7	0.2	2.9	2	18.6	0.1	9.2	10.2
Ty Chandler	14.3	48.9	0.3	1.9	1.3	11.9	0.1	9.1	9.7
Jahmyr Gibbs	5.9	26.4	0.4	2.7	1.9	14.9	0.1	8.5	9.4
Jerome Ford	10.6	43.8	0.3	2.6	1.7	11.3	0	8.4	9.2
Antonio Gibson	7.3	29.1	0.2	3.3	2.4	21.7	0.1	8.3	9.5
D'Onta Foreman	7.6	34.1	0.3	4.6	2.7	13.5	0	8.1	9.5
Royce Freeman	10.2	38.1	0.5	1.8	1.1	6.5	0	8	8.5
David Montgomery	7.3	29	0.6	1.6	1	7.9	0	7.9	8.4
Tyler Allgeier	9	37.6	0.3	1.7	1.2	8.3	0.1	7.5	8.1
Samaje Perine	4.1	16	0	3.9	3.4	32.3	0.1	7.5	9.2
Brian Robinson Jr.	11	40.9	0	2.2	1.5	18	0	6.9	7.7
Jerick McKinnon	5.2	21.6	0.1	2.9	2.1	20.2	0.2	6.7	7.8
Kareem Hunt	7.9	29.4	0.3	1.8	1.2	9.2	0.1	6.6	7.2
Khalil Herbert	5.5	25.4	0.3	2.8	1.5	11.3	0	6.5	7.3
Justice Hill	4.9	18.8	0.1	3.5	2.7	21.4	0.1	6.2	7.6
Roschon Johnson	5.5	20.5	0.2	2.8	1.6	11.9	0.1	5.5	6.3
Rico Dowdle	8	32.3	0.2	0.8	0.7	3.7	0	5.4	5.8
Alexander Mattison	5.5	22.3	0.1	2.9	2	8.9	0.1	5.3	6.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	3	14.5	0	3.9	3.1	12.7	0.1	5.1	6.6
Kenneth Gainwell	3.9	17.9	0.2	2.4	1.7	6.6	0.1	5	5.9
Chase Brown	4.3	18.2	0.1	2.7	1.8	13	0.1	5	5.9
Gus Edwards	4.9	20	0.2	1.4	1	13.3	0	5	5.5
Zach Charbonnet	3.8	16.3	0.1	3.2	2.3	10.6	0.1	4.9	6.1
D'Ernest Johnson	2.9	12.2	0.3	1.5	1.1	8.6	0.1	4.5	5.1
Joshua Kelley	5.3	20	0.1	1.8	1.3	9.2	0.1	4.5	5.1
Miles Sanders	4.8	16.5	0.1	1.9	1.3	5.2	0.1	4.4	5.1

Kenneth Walker III (RB5)

Ever since Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III has come back from injury, his snap share has been reduced and he has only ranked as a top-12 running back once in that span. With Seattle’s season on the line in Week 18, that could change and Walker draws a matchup made in heaven against one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses this season. The Seahawks’ matchup against the Cardinals could be one of the few shootouts of the slate, giving Walker great upside on the ground and at the goal-line.

Elijah Mitchell (RB14)

Although the 49ers have nothing to play for in Week 18 and will start Sam Darnold, their lead running back Elijah Mitchell still holds upside as he will face a Rams defense at home that is far from invincible. Mitchell is in line to be a workhorse with Christian McCaffrey already ruled out and San Francisco’s offense could still look surgical, giving the back top-12 ceiling at the position.

Wide Receivers

Player	Targets	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points	Fantasy Points (PPR)
CeeDee Lamb	10.1	7.4	111.1	0.7	20	23.7
Tyreek Hill	10.9	7.6	75.8	0.6	14.9	18.7
Mike Evans	9.1	5.3	84.9	0.5	14.2	16.9
Stefon Diggs	9	6.2	77.9	0.5	14.2	17.3
Nico Collins	8.5	5.5	78.3	0.5	13.5	16.3
DJ Moore	10.1	7.1	70.5	0.4	13.4	17
A.J. Brown	8.8	5.9	75.7	0.4	13.2	16.1
DK Metcalf	8.9	4.7	73.1	0.6	13.1	15.4
Justin Jefferson	9.6	6.3	67.5	0.5	12.7	15.9
Terry McLaurin	9.8	6.7	70.4	0.3	12.4	15.7
Michael Pittman Jr.	8.7	6.1	74	0.3	12.2	15.3
DeAndre Hopkins	9.2	5	75.4	0.4	12.2	14.7
DeVonta Smith	7.4	5.2	68.2	0.3	11.4	14
Chris Godwin	8.3	5.3	58.4	0.4	11.3	13.9
Adam Thielen	9.3	5.8	60	0.4	11.1	14
Drake London	8	5.4	60.8	0.4	11	13.7
Davante Adams	8.3	4.5	55.5	0.5	10.9	13.2
Ja'Marr Chase	8.2	4.8	58.4	0.4	10.8	13.2
Chris Olave	8.8	5	59.9	0.4	10.8	13.3
Calvin Ridley	7.2	4.8	60.3	0.3	10.5	13
Tyler Lockett	6.5	4.6	50.2	0.5	10.5	12.8
Brandin Cooks	5.9	4.1	55.9	0.4	10.2	12.3
Curtis Samuel	7.6	5.4	50.3	0.3	9.6	12.3
Jayden Reed	5.8	4.1	48.8	0.4	9.6	11.6
Rashid Shaheed	6.1	3.7	54.7	0.2	9.3	11.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.5	4.2	54.7	0.3	9.3	11.4
Jakobi Meyers	6.8	3.7	52.5	0.3	9.2	11
Josh Downs	7.8	4.3	52.5	0.3	9	11.2
Jordan Addison	6.7	4.1	46.6	0.4	8.9	11
Garrett Wilson	9	5	47	0.3	8.9	11.4
George Pickens	6.9	3.6	48.1	0.3	8.8	10.6
Demarcus Robinson	6.4	3.6	58	0.2	8.8	10.6
Jerry Jeudy	5.5	4.1	48.2	0.3	8.8	10.9
Christian Watson	6.6	3.3	44.3	0.4	8.7	10.4
Wan'Dale Robinson	6.9	4.5	41.2	0.3	8.7	10.9
Diontae Johnson	7.8	4.5	48.4	0.3	8.7	10.9
Ronnie Bell	5.3	3.6	48.5	0.2	8	9.8
Jonathan Mingo	7.8	4.1	42.1	0.2	7.7	9.7
Courtland Sutton	7	4.9	52.2	0	7.7	10.1
Josh Reynolds	5.3	3.3	43	0.3	7.6	9.2
Demario Douglas	6.3	3.9	39.5	0.3	7.5	9.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7.1	5.2	29	0.3	7.5	10.1
Gabe Davis	4.6	2.8	39.2	0.3	7.3	8.7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4.8	2.6	48.3	0.2	7.3	8.6
Khalil Shakir	4.6	2.8	43.3	0.2	7	8.4
Dontayvion Wicks	5	3	39.5	0.2	6.9	8.4
DJ Chark	4.9	3.1	40.4	0.2	6.9	8.5
Parker Washington	5.8	4.1	33.4	0.2	6.9	8.9
Romeo Doubs	5	3.4	36.2	0.2	6.8	8.5
Cooper Kupp	4.5	2.6	41.5	0.2	6.6	7.9
John Metchie III	4.2	2.8	28	0.4	6.5	7.8
Michael Wilson	4.5	2.9	40.7	0.2	6.4	7.9
Darius Slayton	4.6	3.1	38.1	0.2	6.4	8
Quentin Johnston	5.3	3.1	36.1	0.2	6.4	8
Deebo Samuel	3	2.2	26.2	0.2	6.4	7.5
DeVante Parker	5.4	3.1	33.6	0.2	6.3	7.9
Jahan Dotson	4.3	2.8	32.8	0.3	6.3	7.7
Rondale Moore	4.5	2.8	26.6	0.2	6.2	7.6
Robbie Chosen	5.4	3.2	30.4	0.3	6.2	7.8
Marquise Brown	5.2	2.7	29.9	0.3	6	7.4
Puka Nacua	4.5	2.6	36	0.2	5.8	7.1
Justin Watson	5.8	3	32.7	0.2	5.7	7.2
Zay Jones	4.4	3	25.4	0.3	5.7	7.2
Alec Pierce	3.5	2.3	34.7	0.2	5.7	6.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4.2	2.3	29.7	0.3	5.7	6.8
Trey Palmer	4	2.6	23.7	0.3	5.7	7
Tyler Boyd	5.5	3.3	25.6	0.2	5.6	7.3
Cedric Tillman	5.3	3	29.6	0.2	5.4	6.9
K.J. Osborn	3.9	2.3	18.3	0.4	5.4	6.5
Rashod Bateman	3.5	2.4	33	0.1	5.1	6.3
Jalen Tolbert	4.2	2.4	26.7	0.2	5.1	6.3
Jalen Guyton	5.3	2.7	19.8	0.3	5.1	6.4
Robert Woods	4.2	2.4	24.8	0.2	5	6.2
Greg Dortch	3.7	2.7	28.2	0.1	4.9	6.2
Michael Gallup	2.5	1.8	31.8	0.1	4.7	5.6
Jalin Hyatt	3.9	1.8	31.5	0.1	4.6	5.5
Kalif Raymond	3.4	2.1	28	0.1	4.4	5.5
Brandon Aiyuk	3	2.3	17.7	0.2	4.1	5.2
Xavier Gipson	3	2.1	15.1	0.1	3.9	5
Marvin Mims Jr.	3.1	1.9	22	0.1	3.9	4.8
Rashee Rice	2.9	2	21.5	0.1	3.9	4.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.5	3	22.7	0	3.8	5.3
Treylon Burks	3.3	1.7	21.6	0.1	3.7	4.5
D.J. Montgomery	3.5	1.9	14.1	0.2	3.4	4.4
Brandon Powell	3.9	2.5	15.9	0.1	3.3	4.5
Trenton Irwin	1.8	1.3	14.3	0.1	2.9	3.6
Hunter Renfrow	2.3	1.6	12.2	0.1	2.7	3.5
Deonte Harty	1.8	1.1	10	0.1	2.4	3
Nelson Agholor	1.4	1	14.3	0.1	2.3	2.8
Isaiah Hodgins	2.3	1.4	8.9	0.1	1.9	2.6
Allen Robinson	1.7	1	8.8	0.1	1.9	2.4
DeAndre Carter	0.8	0.5	6.9	0.1	1.8	2.1
Quez Watkins	0.8	0.5	4.3	0	1.4	1.6
Allen Lazard	0.8	0.5	5.2	0.1	1.3	1.6
Danny Gray	0.8	0.5	6.2	0.1	1.2	1.5
Zach Pascal	1.5	0.9	5.4	0	1.2	1.6
Calvin Austin III	1.3	0.7	6.7	0	1	1.4
Parris Campbell	0.6	0.4	2.4	0	1	1.2
Ben Skowronek	0.9	0.6	3.9	0	0.9	1.2

Jordan Addison (WR29)

Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison has been the definition of boom-or-bust but the results have usually not been his fault. Although the quarterback roulette of the Minnesota Vikings has plagued consistency in their offense, Addison has remained one of the top red zone targets in the league and has averaged 77.7 air yards per game over his last six games. Now, he draws a Detroit Lions pass defense that ranks among the league’s worst since they came off their bye in Week 10. The Vikings have a sliver of hope for a spot in the playoffs and will be going all out seeking a win in Week 18 — Addison has immense upside in this spot.

Tight Ends

Player	Targets	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points	Fantasy Points (PPR)
Jake Ferguson	6.8	4.3	52.3	0.6	10.8	12.9
Trey McBride	7.5	5.2	57.9	0.3	10.2	12.8
Gerald Everett	7.1	4.6	49.3	0.4	9.8	12.1
Dalton Schultz	6.8	4.4	44.9	0.4	9.3	11.5
Cole Kmet	7.3	5.6	42	0.3	9	11.8
Dalton Kincaid	7.4	5.2	41.2	0.4	9	11.6
Darren Waller	6.9	4.8	46.7	0.3	8.8	11.2
Dallas Goedert	5.6	4	51.6	0.3	8.7	10.7
Evan Engram	8.1	5.9	42.3	0.2	8.6	11.6
Kyle Pitts	7	4.6	46.6	0.2	8.4	10.7
Logan Thomas	6.5	4.6	43.2	0.3	8.2	10.5
Noah Gray	4.8	3.8	48.2	0.2	7.9	9.8
David Njoku	7.1	4.2	41.3	0.2	7.5	9.6
Tucker Kraft	5.8	2.9	35.1	0.4	7.3	8.8
Dawson Knox	5.5	3.9	30.9	0.3	7	8.9
Johnny Mundt	6.7	4	30.5	0.3	7	9
Jonnu Smith	5	3.5	34	0.2	6.6	8.4
Juwan Johnson	6.1	3.7	30.2	0.3	6.4	8.2
Cade Otton	5	3.3	29.5	0.3	6.1	7.8
Durham Smythe	5.4	3.6	30.2	0.2	6.1	7.8
Chigoziem Okonkwo	5.8	3.8	29.8	0.2	5.9	7.8
Hunter Henry	4.5	2.8	22.3	0.3	5.7	7.1
Sam LaPorta	3.6	2.7	24.7	0.2	5.2	6.5
George Kittle	3	2.3	29.9	0.2	5.1	6.2
Pat Freiermuth	4.5	2.8	25.1	0.2	5	6.4
Tanner Hudson	3.6	2.7	21	0.2	4.6	5.9
Colby Parkinson	4	2.6	21.3	0.2	4.6	5.9
Tommy Tremble	4.9	2.9	18	0.2	4.4	5.9
Tyler Conklin	3.8	2.7	25.8	0.1	4.4	5.8
Adam Trautman	3.1	2.3	15.1	0.2	3.6	4.7
Mike Gesicki	2.7	1.5	14.5	0.2	3.1	3.9
Isaiah Likely	2.1	1.6	18.2	0.1	3	3.9
Kylen Granson	2.6	1.3	9.3	0.1	2.3	2.9
Will Dissly	1.6	1.1	8.9	0.1	2.1	2.6
Austin Hooper	1.5	1.2	9	0.1	2	2.6
Daniel Bellinger	1.5	1.1	12	0	1.9	2.5
Taysom Hill	0.9	0.6	6.1	0.1	1.9	2.2
Irv Smith Jr.	0.9	0.6	3.5	0.1	1.5	1.9

Dawson Knox (TE15)

The most meaningful game of the Week 18 slate for both teams involved is on Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins fight for a division title. While the rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid remains involved in Buffalo’s passing attack, veteran Dawson Knox is still a huge red zone threat and now draws a Dolphins defense that has been porous against tight ends all season long. In the event of a close, high-powered offensive game, Knox could be the star of DFS lineups in the closing moments of the regular season.

This article first appeared on The 33rd Team and was syndicated with permission.

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