2024 NFL Coach of the Year odds, picks, predictions

1. The Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games.

Duh.

This is a team award, and teams need to win for voters to care. COY teams won an average of 12.0 games over the past decade, closer to 13 at the 17-game pace. All but Daboll won at least 11.

Seven straight COYs had won the division before the last two winners, both of whom had strong narratives. Half of them won enough to earn a first-round bye.

Winning reigns supreme, as always.

2. It's not just about winning — Coaches of the Year must improve from last season.

Every single one of our 10 COYs improved upon their team's previous campaign — most of them by a lot.

The average COY team won 5.2 games more than the previous season, improving from 6.9 wins to 12.1 the following year. In a 17-game schedule, that's about the equivalent of jumping from 7-9 to 13-4!

Eight of our 10 COYs improved by at least four wins over last year's finish, with a median improvement of seven wins over the past 12 seasons. That's a lot of improvement!

That means the teams that already won 11 or more games last year are effectively out of the running. Seven of our last 10 COYs' teams won between seven and 10 games the previous season.

3. Coaches of the Year outperform expectations.

But it's not just about winning, or even improving. There's a narrative portion of this award, too. Voters want a coach from a team that surprises them.

One easy way to measure expectations is using team win totals. Every COY since 2010 had won at least 2.5 games above their posted win total until these last two seasons, with six of them 4.5+ wins over expected!

The average win total coming into the season for these COYs was 8.8 (projected to 17 games), with eight of the last 10 starting somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 expected wins, and none of them above that range.

These were teams no one knew what to expect from, with win totals around .500, that went on to outperform expectations — usually by a bunch.

So what are we looking for in a Coach of the Year?

We need a coach who wins a bunch, way more than last year, and they need to outperform their win total expectations. We'd love a team expected to win around 7-10 games like last season that instead leaps to 12+ wins and contends for a division title.

A few other notes we should keep in mind…

• The last nine COYs all started the year at +1800 or longer, so this doesn't usually go to the favorite.
• Four of the last seven COYs were first-year coaches on their team, along with six of the last 13.
• Six of the last eight COYs were offensive-minded, fitting the direction the game is headed.

We've only got 32 possible winners, so let's narrow down the field…

Expectations Already Too High

Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
Sean McDermott, Bills
Zac Taylor, Bengals
Andy Reid, Chiefs
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Dan Campbell, Lions
John Harbaugh, Ravens

We just ruled out nearly a quarter of our options — great coaches! — with a wave of the hand.

Each one has a posted win total of 10 or higher, and none of our recent COYs started with a win total that high. Only one was even at nine.

It doesn't mean these guys can't win, but they don't fit our profile. Let's narrow the field a bit further.

No Repeat Winners Allowed

Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Brian Daboll, Giants
Sean McVay, Rams

Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera, and now Kevin Stefanski are the only coaches this century to win Coach of the Year twice for the same franchise. We just don't pick many repeat winners.

That rules this trio out and is another strike against Harbaugh, too.

And just like that, almost a third of the field is gone.

Six More Easy Names to Cross Out

Sean Payton, Broncos
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
Dennis Allen, Saints
Mike Tomlin, Steelers
DeMeco Ryans, Texans

The Bucs and Saints have identical profiles and win totals, but what voter is backing lame ducks Bowles and Allen for Coach of the Year in a terrible division? McCarthy doesn't have a ton of fans either and the Cowboys already just won 12 games. These are teams moving in the wrong direction.

Tomlin might be too. He's coming off 10 wins for a team with plenty of signs of regression and has to navigate a Russell Wilson and Justin Fields quagmire at QB. We already know he's never finished below .500, so how do you improve enough on that? Sean Payton is a Super Bowl winner and won eight games last season. What would he have to do in the AFC West to impress enough voters?

As for Ryans, the Texans hype is simply out of control and he just does not fit the profile. Houston already won 10 last year and has a win total of 9.5, so expectations are already so high that it's nearly impossible for Ryans to exceed them — and may lead to a C.J. Stroud MVP win instead if he does it anyway. Ryans should've won last year, but he's not going to win this time.

Half the league is out!

Six Teams That Are Simply Too Bad to Win 11 Games

Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals
Dan Quinn, Commanders
Dave Canales, Panthers
Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Kevin O'Connell, Vikings

Look, history says we almost definitely need at least 11 wins, likely more like 12 or 13.

There are absolutely bettable names on this list, names I like, like Jonathan Gannon, among the favorites at +1800. But Gannon is a great example.

I love the Cardinals. Love OC Drew Petzing. Love Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. Love the run game. But their defense looks like the worst in the entire league and they're in a loaded division. Could Arizona leap from four wins to .500? Absolutely, but can they really get to 11 or 12 and contend for a division? It's just too much.

I'm on Panthers Island! We're betting Carolina as our worst-to-first division winner this year at +1300. So why not bet Dave Canales too? Well, because part of the Panthers cap is that the NFC South stinks and nine or 10 wins might be enough to win the division. Can the Panthers really leap from two to 12 wins?

There are first-year guys here and plenty of obvious narratives. If the Patriots are great, Jerod Mayo will get credit. If Kevin O'Connell turns Sam Darnold into a 12-game winner, he'll get his flowers.

Sports are fun because they surprise you. But we need more than a surprise — we need 11 or 12 wins, and I just can't reasonably get there.

This brings us to our final 10 candidates. Here's how I rank them, counting down from No. 10 to No. 1.

Our Final 10 COY Candidates

10. Doug Pederson, Jaguars +4500

The Jaguars won nine games last year and have a win total of 8.5, so they likely need to get to 12 or 13 wins to fit the bill. If they do, isn't it just a Trevor Lawrence MVP vote? Pederson missed his window to win this two years ago when he saved Jacksonville from the stank of Urban Meyer and should've beat Brian Daboll.

9. Shane Steichen, Colts +1500
8. Matt LaFleur, Packers +1400

Listen, I love both these dudes and absolutely expected both of them to end up much higher on this list, but there's just one big problem: they're both such good coaches that their teams were already too good last year to win this award.

The Packers and Colts each won nine games already as LaFleur and Steichen maximized young rosters. Historically that likely means we're shooting for 13 wins and a run at the 1-seed. If Green Bay does that, Jordan Love is in the MVP conversation. If Indianapolis does it, could Anthony Richardson also be on that list?

Steichen and LaFleur are superb coaches who make terrific in-game decisions and elevate their entire teams, but they already elevated their teams so much last year that the bar for expectations is too high to win COY this season — especially at some of the shortest odds in the field.

7. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins +3000

Miami just sneaks under the wire here with a win total of 9.5, and the Dolphins probably still don't qualify after winning 11 games last season. This would have to be a bet on Miami taking the AFC 1-seed as the best team in the league.

But maybe that's worth betting. This is my No. 1 offense in the league, and what if Mike McDaniel adds yet another wrinkle this season, and what if they finally don't hit a wall with six weeks to go? Add in a talented defense with a fresh voice in new DC Anthony Weaver and the fact that voters wouldn't take Tua Tagovialoa seriously as an MVP candidate, and this isn't a bad way to invest in an awesome Miami regular season.

6. Jim Harbaugh, Chargers +1000
5. Matt Eberflus, Bears +1000

These are the co-favorites for Coach of the Year.

The Chargers have a great spine, with an outstanding QB and terrific offensive line, and now a great coaching staff, with not just Harbaugh, but also floor-raising OC Greg Roman and DC Jesse Minter, a rising star. But LA lost a ton of talent on offense and the rest of the roster needs a ton of help.

The Chargers won five games last season, but expectations are already higher with a win total of 8.5. We're probably looking for 11 wins and a playoff berth, including at least one win against the Chiefs. That's doable but tough in the loaded AFC, and it's just not bettable at such a short number.

The Bears are even buzzier, and Eberflus's defense took a leap last season, but it would need to be OC Shane Waldron's offense to make a push this season. With a win total of nine, Chicago probably needs to get to 11 or 12 wins to contend here — and if they do, doesn't Caleb Williams just coast to Rookie of the Year?

Favorites don't win this award, because books are consistently capping the favorites wrong.

4. Robert Saleh, Jets +2500

I'm all-in on the Jets this season with an elite defense and special teams that has upgraded its offensive line and QB from among the worst in the league to among the best. New York's roster might be as good as any in the entire league, and the healthy version of this team could be the AFC 1-seed.

Saleh is a cool story with his background and you get the New York media hype, but would Saleh really get any credit for a 13-4 Jets team, especially one that made an offensive leap? Wouldn't that just be a vote for Aaron Rodgers as Comeback Player of the Year or even MVP, and maybe for Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson OPOY?

I really wanted to get there on Saleh, but his reputation is so bad — at some offshore markets, he's among the favorites to be the first coach fired — that it's just hard to see the voters giving him credit.

3. Raheem Morris, Falcons +1400

I'm on Panthers Island in the NFC South, but if the division goes chalk, it sets up pretty nicely for Raheem Morris as a first-year head coach on a team that could rack up wins against a Charmin-soft schedule and get to 11 or 12 wins.

Atlanta adds Kirk Cousins, a huge leap of improvement at QB, and new OC Zac Robinson should unlock this offense and unleash Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts in ways the old coaching staff never did. The Falcons may not even have to be particularly great to get to 12-5 in this division — sometimes just being average in a bad division and catching a few bounces can be enough.

I'm not a believer in the Falcons this season, but this is a great way to bet them if you are.

The 2 Coaches You Should Bet Right Now

2. Brian Callahan, Titans +2500 (bet365)

The Titans profile is a bullseye candidate for this award. Tennessee won six games last season and sits at a win total of 6.5, and the Titans play in a pretty winnable division, especially if you agree the Texans are getting a bit too much media hype this offseason.

Could first-year coach Brian Callahan lead the Titans to 11-6 and a worst-to-first division crown?

There are a ton of paths to upside.

The offense lost Derrick Henry but adds Tony Pollard to Tyjae Spears along with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to DeAndre Hopkins. That's a real set of weapons in Tennessee, and the best addition might have come off the field in Brian's father Bill Callahan, the offensive line coach. That all sets up sophomore QB Will Levis to succeed with a ton of extra help and a new offensive-minded head coach.

The defense has paths to success too. Tennessee got a complete makeover in defense, bringing in guys like L'Jarius Sneed, Ernest Jones, and Quandre Diggs. It also brought in new DC Dennard Wilson from the Ravens coaching tree, a defensive backs coach who should bring a new, very different brand of defense to this team.

Could all of that lead to a Titans breakout season?

Frankly, I don't see it — but sometimes as bettors with futures portfolios, we have to be willing to bet against our own instincts too. And even enough I'm not in on the Titans, there are a whole bunch of ways this could go right, and this is a great way to bet the Titans once for the year in case I'm wrong.

1. Mike Macdonald, Seahawks +1400 (FanDuel)

I may not see it with the Titans or Falcons, but I am loving these Seattle Seahawks, and it starts with this first-year coaching staff.

Mike Macdonald was the best hire in a juicy coaching carousel. He's the guy everyone wanted, the CEO who will lead the team forward from Pete Carroll, and a brilliant defensive mind who could turn this defense around in a hurry.

The Seahawks have made big strides on the defensive line, and I love linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker, handpicked by Macdonald to come in at the heart of his defense a la Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. Sophomore DB Devon Witherspoon could function as this team's Kyle Hamilton, a do-everything attacking chess piece that moves all over the board. I have Seattle as my No. 5 defense for the new season.

But it's not just the defense!

New OC Ryan Grubb's offense looks very intriguing too. Grubb had the University of Washington offense firing on all cylinders, with Michael Penix Jr. breaking out with a flurry of deep balls to three talented receivers. That's the perfect formula for this team with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, Geno Smith grades out at PFF as the best deep ball passer in the league.

This looks like the perfect coaching staff for this roster, and it's a team with moderate expectations and a 7.5-win total that could easily jump to 11 or 12 wins and a playoff push.

Voters would love a first-year candidate, especially one taking over for a legend like Pete Carroll and not stepping back but injecting the team with new life and pushing them to even greater heights.

I'm in on these Seattle Seahawks, and if they have a great season as expected, this coaching staff should be in the mix for Coach of the Year all the way. Mike Macdonald is my top pick for Coach of the Year in 2024 at +1400.

About the Author

Brandon Anderson is an NBA and NFL writer at The Action Network, and our resident NBA props guy. He hails from Chicagoland and is still basking in the glorious one-year Cubs World Series dynasty.

Follow Brandon Anderson @wheatonbrando on Twitter/X.