2024 Patriots Season Prediction: A Surprising 9-Win Season With a Dramatic Finish

This past Patriots offseason is one that has seen a massive turnover, with Bill Belichick’s departure marking the start of a new era for this football team.

With Jerod Mayo and the new coaching staff set to embark on what’s likely going to be a pivotal season, this New England Patriots club will also be doing it while having gone through a massive turnover on offense.

It’s a group that certainly looks much different from a year ago, and the biggest question is going to be how things play out with rookie quarterback Drake Maye.  It’s been a slow start for the #3 overall pick, who has spent the early part of the spring so far working on his fundamentals.

Maye’s been busy both on and off the field.  Head coach Jerod Mayo pointed out earlier this week that the former North Carolina quarterback is often spotted by himself in his off time watching film and putting in some long hours here at the next level.

When his time will come is something everyone is wondering about.  The hope is that he’ll ultimately be the player to get them back into contention, although it would be a surprise if that happened this season.

Instead, the number one thing people will be crossing their fingers for is growth and progress, which will hopefully put them on the path to success in the coming years.  Should they end up with a losing record, the goal is to see them at least lay a foundation they can build on a year from now.

Still, this upcoming 2024 New England Patriots schedule is definitely a gauntlet of opponents and road trips that won’t be easy.  However, here is a week-by-week look at how things might unfold.

Week 1: at Cincinnati

Prediction: Win
Record: 1-0

With a trip on the road to open the 2024 campaign, Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots will have hopefully had a solid training camp to button things up heading into this match-up.

By this point, it should be a fairly cohesive group at receiver, with Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker among presumably the top-four pass catchers.  While there will be some question marks heading into the season, it doesn’t change the fact this should be a much speedier and more dangerous bunch than they took into last season.

On the other side, this will be Joe Burrow’s first regular season game since suffering a wrist injury during their Week 11 game against Baltimore in 2023.  The X-factor in this game will likely be New England’s defense, which again ends up keeping things close for much of 2024.  With Christian Gonzalez set to return, that eases the concern of what Ja’Marr Chase might do, and their secondary as a whole should keep this one relatively competitive.

Factor in New England’s pass rush – especially should the club get Matthew Judon’s contract done and prevent any issues from that standpoint – it should set them up for a day where they’ll potentially make life tough on Burrow.

With a defense that – if the reports are true – may be schematically different, the Bengals come into this one a little blind when it comes to what they’re expecting the Patriots to throw at them.  If they can force Burrow into a few rushed throws and potentially a couple of turnovers (Burrow threw two picks in the previous match-up in 2022), it may give New England a shot to pull off the upset.

Meanwhile, Brissett is a smart, veteran player who should be a breath of fresh air compared to the rollercoaster we saw on offense last season.  If he avoids the pitfalls that plagued Mac Jones in recent years and doesn’t turn it over, this could be a game where New England catches the Bengals off guard and drops them for what would definitely be a surprising loss in the eyes of most to begin the season.

Week 2: vs Seattle

Prediction: Win
Record: 2-0

Should New England pull off the upset to start 2024, the mood at Gillette Stadium heading into Week 2 should be pretty upbeat when the Seahawks visit the Patriots for the home opener.

For now, Seattle has both Sam Howell and Geno Smith on their quarterback depth chart, with the big question being who might be starting at that point.

The thought here is similar to what we saw against Cincinnati, although it’s hard not to feel like the Patriots may actually have the better quarterback for this one.  The defense should be tough again on whoever is under center, which coupled with some noise from the home crowd – if things get off to a decent start – should certainly set up a fun environment.

As a result, things feel like it could line up for the Patriots to shock everyone with a 2-0 start, which will likely have a few scratching their heads after likely having written this team off heading into the season.

Week 3: at NY Jets (Thursday night football)

Prediction: Loss
Record: 2-1

It’s hard to feel good about this Thursday night AFC East showdown coming off a short week, especially given that this one’s also on the road.

If Aaron Rodgers is back to form, that offense is going to be tough.  It’s a group that is incredibly talented and was underutilized last season, primarily because New York spent much of the 2023 campaign without a competent player under center after Rodgers went down.

New England’s defense is up for the challenge, but this might be a situation where Rodgers simply makes a few more plays, causing the Patriots to simply come up short.

That could set up one of those “moral victory” weeks where the tenor still remains somewhat positive, as the club held their own and is playing better than many expected.  Fortunately, they’ll then get 10 days off and a much-needed rest ahead of their next contest.

Week 4: at San Francisco

Prediction: Loss
Record: 2-2

Well, it was fun while it lasted.  The Patriots head out to the west coast for a big test against the 49ers, who have a tough offense and an even tougher defense.

The key question heading into this one is going to be how Mayo game plans against an opponent like San Francisco.  In the past, Bill Belichick would come up with little wrinkles that potentially turned the tide of the game, which could be something to watch here.

If Mayo can dial up something to slow down Brock Purdy and company, they may have a shot.  But until they prove they can pull off the same magic we saw from one of the best to ever do it, it’s hard not to feel like we could see the 49ers have their way on offense.

New England will likely keep it interesting, but they come up short and drop back to .500 to close out the month of September.

Week 5: vs Miami

Prediction: Win
Record: 3-2

Coming off of back-to-back losses, there is definitely some urgency heading into Week 5 with the Dolphins coming in.  There were already cracks shown by Miami back in January and my feeling – take it for what it’s worth – is that the Dolphins end up being the surprising story of 2024, and not in a good way.

It feels like Tua Tagovailoa could potentially struggle to begin the season, with the Dolphins possibly coming in here also at .500.  As it is, it’s hard not to feel like a competent offense in Week 1 against Miami last year could have led to a better outcome.  With Brissett, things should hopefully look much different by this point of the year.

Meanwhile, despite the fact the Patriots may have lost the two previous games, there has likely been growth on both sides of the ball, with the team also having built some confidence as a whole, with Gonzalez again helping to be an equalizer against a talented Miami offense.

Playing in Foxboro rather than in South Florida at this point of the season also helps, and this could be a day where we see the defense make a statement, while Brissett engineers enough scoring drives to help his team pull off a close victory.

Week 6: vs Houston

Prediction: Win
Record: 4-2

The Patriots pull off another victory, with the defense potentially coming up with a couple of big turnovers against C.J. Stroud in front of the home crowd.

This could be a game where we see New England get up on Houston early, which puts pressure on Stroud and allows the Patriots to play this one on their terms.

By week six, we should see a couple of players having emerged on offense, with both Polk and Baker hopefully joining Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry in putting up some decent numbers.  It’s possible we see that group have a strong-showing, which continues to get people buzzing about a Patriots team that some felt might be 0-5 coming into this game.

Instead, their second-straight home game ends in seeing them string together another back-to-back set of wins for this 2024 season.

Week 7: at Jacksonville (London)

Prediction: Loss
Record: 4-3

The Jaguars hold the edge in this one, having already spent one week across the pond, and are well-rested as the Patriots are forced to travel to London and adjust ahead of this AFC matchup.

New England’s defense could have a tough time and might be suffering from some jetlag, while the offense could end up in a similar situation where we see some miscues and uncharacteristic turnovers.

Jacksonville has been tough to beat in that situation, and it’s likely that they again come out playing well against a Patriots team in a game where a few plays end up being the difference.

Needless to say, this one likely ends up ending in less-than-ideal fashion for New England, with the Patriots ultimately losing in frustrating fashion.

Week 8: vs Jets

Prediction: Loss
Record: 4-4

For the second time this year, the Patriots find themselves on the wrong end of back-to-back losses, albeit this one comes in front of the home crowd.

By this point of the season, it’s likely that the Jets are the ones atop the AFC East, with Rodgers probably having a solid performance and his name frequently being mentioned by all the talking heads.

Some are already predicting a Super Bowl run for New York, although Rodgers would have to prove he can finish and not flame out in January.

Nevertheless, he ends up putting up enough points against a Patriots team that is still reeling from its loss in London, while the Jets complete the season sweep against its AFC East rival.

Week 9: at Tennessee

Prediction: Win
Record: 5-4

Another set of back-to-back losses and being swept by the Jets starts the Drake Maye buzz.  Sitting at .500, it’s possible that the rookie gets his first start on the road in what the coaching staff may feel is a winnable game against second-year quarterback, Will Levis.

This isn’t the same team as the one we saw under Mike Vrabel, and things have likely changed quite a bit down in the Music City.  Gone is Derrick Henry, and Levis is now Tennessee’s quarterback of the future, with the former Kentucky signal-caller now in his first full season as a starter.

Where he is at this point in the year should be interesting, but New England’s defense ends up keeping this one close and it’s possible we see Maye make a couple of plays that gets everyone excited, with Rhamondre Stevenson getting it done on the ground as the offense does its job.

That allows Maye to get his first NFL victory, which also happens to get the Patriots back above .500.

Week 10: at Chicago

Prediction: Win
Record: 6-4

Obviously, we know the story of how things have historically played out for the Bears at quarterback.  While Caleb Williams is expected to be the player people believe will be the new superstar in the NFL, it would be surprising to see him having met those expectations in his first season.

There will likely be flashes, but how he played football at USC is probably not translating for him thus far in the NFL.  The issue that concerned scouts will have likely reared its ugly head by this point – Williams improvising too much – and the Bears are likely at a point in the season where there’s frustration on both sides of the football.

New England’s defense likely comes up with a couple of turnovers, while Maye, who has made slow but steady progress ahead of his start the previous week, ends up looking like the better player.

As a result, the Patriots come away with a win that sees Maye improve to 2-0 as a starter.

Week 11: vs LA Rams

Prediction: Loss
Record: 6-5

The Patriots return home to Foxboro, where the Gillette Stadium crowd gets its first view of Maye, and they’re not disappointed.

This will likely be one of those games where Maye plays well but the Rams just happen to play better, with Maye likely hitting some big throws as the two teams go back-and-forth in what will probably be a fun game to watch.

However, the Rams end up on the right side of things, which again likely sets up another “moral victory” week. Despite the loss, people are pleased after seeing Maye string together his third straight solid outing, which has everyone feeling good about the direction the team is heading in.

Week 12: at Miami

Prediction: Win
Record: 7-5

By this point of the season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dolphins sitting at 5-6, with frustration bubbling up internally after the club finds itself at the bottom of the AFC East.  By now, the tide has clearly turned after the Jets are the ones many believe will unseat the Bills atop the Division, with Buffalo sitting in second place.

Still, what hurts the most is the fact Miami is sitting behind New England, likely leaving them incredibly frustrated.  Normally, playing at home would seemingly help, but instead, Tagovaolia ends up with another shaky performance where the defense forces multiple turnovers.  On the other side, Maye comes in confident and puts together another good outing in what should be a manageable November day weather-wise in Miami.

That drops the Dolphins to 5-7, while New England suddenly sits at 7-5, which ends up being something that people absolutely weren’t expecting.  Not to mention a fairly shocking season sweep against a team that had held an uncomfortable edge against them over the past several seasons.

Week 13: vs Indianapolis

Prediction: Win
Record: 8-5

It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of a season that Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson ends up with.

Many have him potentially as a MVP candidate, with an injury derailing what had otherwise been a promising season in 2023.

However, the Patriots facing him at home at Gillette Stadium ends up giving them an edge, energizing a defense that keeps Richardson inside the pocket and makes him miserable, while their secondary could force a turnover or two.

Another good performance by Maye keeps this one close and the Patriots end up outlasting Indianapolis to improve to 8-5 on the season, which continues to have people around the league talking about a New England team that no one certainly expected to be in the mix at this point of the season.

Week 15: at Arizona

Prediction: Loss
Record: 8-6

Despite coming off their bye, a trip to the desert doesn’t end well for New England.

Facing what could potentially be a dangerous offense for the Cardinals, this is a game where Kyler Murray has a solid showing and ends up being a problem the Patriots just aren’t quite able to solve.

While New England’s defense holds its own, it’s possible that Arizona just keeps the pressure on, jumping out to an early lead while forcing Maye into a shootout he’s not quite ready for.

As a result, this could end up being one of those games we’ve seen from other past young Patriots QBs where Maye tries to do a little too much and ends up with a couple of turnovers, which sees them finish on the wrong end of this one.

Week 16: at Buffalo

Prediction: Loss
Record: 8-7

The Bills are likely in a battle with the Jets at this point, with their home crowd amped up in this one.

Everyone knows how tough it is to play in Buffalo and by now, they’ve likely settled in and are starting to play well down the stretch.  The loss of Stefon Diggs may end up being addition by subtraction, removing a player who we saw end up in heated discussions with his quarterback over his lack of targets.

Having removed that distraction, it would be a surprise if Josh Allen isn’t having a good year and has the Bills neck-and-neck with the Jets for the division.

In what’s certain to be a cold, windy day in a difficult environment, we might see a good performance by Maye, but probably a better one by Allen in a game that the Bills ultimately win as the Patriots again end up with back-to-back losses.

Week 17: vs LA Chargers

Prediction: Win
Record: 9-7

While the Chargers likely head into this one playing well, the defense ends up putting together a terrific effort against Justin Herbert. Maye goes out and simply makes some good throws, while Stevenson also finishes with a good performance.

This one ends up being frustrating for Los Angeles, as new head coach Jim Harbaugh will have likely turned things around and has his club with a winning record.  They could also be a team in a tight battle with the Chiefs in the AFC West.

However, a solid outing by New England’s rookie quarterback sees the Chargers leave New England with a loss.  To add insult to injury, it also leaves them unable to keep pace with Kansas City, bumping them down in the playoff seedings.

Meanwhile, this victory suddenly puts the postseason as a real possibility for the Patriots, with a showdown set against the Bills to finish the season.

Week 18: vs Buffalo

Prediction: Loss
Record: 9-8

With so much at stake, the atmosphere at Gillette is electric as New England has the chance to earn a postseason birth with a win over Buffalo.

This one ends up being a shootout, with Maye coming up with quite a few surprising big plays against Allen and the Bills, including jumping ahead at one point late.

However, Buffalo ends up making a couple of plays late that sees them grab the lead, while Maye ends up with one final opportunity to put them in position to potentially force overtime.

Unfortunately, they come up just short, with a last-minute touchdown by the Bills not leaving enough time on the clock for a miracle to finish off Mayo’s first season as head coach for the Patriots.

Maye throws several touchdown passes and looks the part, with this game simply being one of those contests where Allen just made the plays at the end to allow Buffalo to escape with the win.

There’s no redemption, with Allen getting the better of the rookie in a game where New England was so close, but just couldn’t quite pull it off.

The good news?  Miami finished below .500 and is mired in chaos and uncertainty heading into the offseason, with New England being responsible for two of their losses.

Still, the fact the Patriots won nine games stuns everyone, with Maye’s performance and the growth we saw on offense instilling some promise for 2025.