2026 Super Bowl Odds, Picks: Betting Trends for NFL Futures Picks

We have every team’s schedule released and win totals for every team. The 2025 NFL regular season is three months away, but it feel like it’s right around the corner.

We’ve had Super Bowl odds available for a while, and there are a few noteworthy trends that indicate who the teams to bet are. Here’s a breakdown of some things you should know before betting your futures. (All data is courtesy of Action Network’s director of research Evan Abrams.)

Super Bowl Winner Is Usually Chalk

Eleven of the past 12 Super Bowl champions have entered the regular season listed at +1200 or lower to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

This checks out for a few reasons.

The last eight Super Bowls have seen seven teams play in them, and one if the Buccaneers, who we could reasonably throw in the “Tom Brady” category. In that span, the Bengals and Bucs are the only teams to have played in just one Super Bowl. The Patriots (two), Rams (two), 49ers (two), Eagles (three) and Chiefs (five) are the others.

The common denominator usually is a quality quarterback. It makes sense then that the one team that was higher than 12-1 to win the Super Bowl before the season had Nick Foles start in the big game. The Eagles entered that season with Carson Wentz under center, and he didn’t start the game because of a torn ACL.

Otherwise, all of those teams entered their Super Bowl campaigns with strong, established quarterback play, which limits the pool of teams that can realistically win a championship.

The Favorite Usually Doesn’t Win

Since 2005, the preseason favorite has won the Super Bowl just three times: the 2022 Chiefs, 2016 Patriots and 2013 Seahawks.

That doesn’t bode well for the Eagles, who are currently +650 at DraftKings. Philadelphia lost a few noteworthy starters over the offseason, but the core of the roster on both sides of the ball remains intact.

It’s generally tough to repeat, as well. Before the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in February of 2023 and 2024, the Patriots were the last teams to repeat back in 2004 and 2005.

AFC Is Especially Chalky

Obviously, when you go from one dominant quarterback in Tom Brady to another in Patrick Mahomes — with Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger lurking throughout most of Brady’s reign — it’s going to be hard to come by underdogs winning the AFC.

Since the Patriots won the AFC at +2000 in 2001, there has only been one AFC team to win the conference at +1000 or higher before the season. That was the Bengals in 2021, when they were +8000.

That’s 22 of 23 seasons that had the AFC champion was +1000 or lower before the season.

This year, four teams fit that bill: the Ravens and Chiefs are +350, the Bills are +375 and the Bengals are +850.

2026 Super Bowl Contenders That Fit the Bill

The Bills (+700), Ravens (+700), Chiefs (+750) and Lions (+1000) fit the bill this season. The Eagles are both the favorites and reigning champions. Those other four teams are the others that are +1400 or lower.

Obviously, those odds aren’t very appealing. But given the odds in recent years, they fit the bill and have been in the conversation of contenders in each of the past few seasons.