2-Point Conversion: Bucs Run Defense Is Worrisome

“To be honest with you, I’m still sitting here trying to figure out what just happened,” Bucs defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches said after the game. “That’s what we are, that’s not what we do. 180-something yards in rushing is just mind-boggling. We don’t do that. We know better than that. We’ll definitely never do that again this whole season – if not ever.

“I’ve never been a part of that on defense and I never want to be a part of that again, so I’ve got to take a lot and put it on my shoulders, because I didn’t do anything to help my team to win or overcome what was going on so, you got to look at you first before you point anywhere else.”

Tampa Bay gave up three 100-yard rushing games in 2019, followed by four 100-yard performances in the 2020 season. The Bucs finished those two seasons tops in run defense. Last year, Tampa Bay’s run defense ranked third and the Bucs finished with eight 100-yard games allowed.

It’s two games into 2022 and the team has already allowed a pair of 100-yard rushing games. Not exactly a great sign – especially with the Falcons coming to town this Sunday, fresh off a victory over Cleveland. Atlanta is averaging 168 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the league.

“Gotta give it to them, you know?” Nunez-Roches said about Kansas City’s offensive line. “Sometimes you’ve got to re-evaluate yourself and those guys definitely did their job today. You can’t take anything from them. Like I said, [189] yards rushing, they had a hat on a hat, and it felt like whatever they wanted to do, they could do it. They executed on a high level.”

We’re four games into the 2022 season. What version of the Bucs defense is truly indicative of Bowles’ unit?

Is it the defense that held Dallas to three points? Is it the squad that had six sacks and created five takeaways against New Orleans? Is it the defense that held Green Bay to a season-low 67 yards rushing?

Or did the Chiefs expose the Bucs as a team that can be run on? When that happens, Bowles can’t get to all of the pressure packages that produce sacks and interceptions because the defense is in third-and-short situations where running or passing is an option.

Kansas City had eight third-and-1 situations and converted 7-of-8. The Chiefs had three third-and-2 situations and converted 2-of-3. They also had one third-and-3 situation and one third-and-4 situation and converted them both. That’s because the Chiefs had nine first-down runs of seven yards or longer.

“Missed tackles, blocking assignments and they played tougher than us and they played better than us,” Bowles said on Monday.

Kansas City was only in third-and-long (third-and-7 or longer) four times Sunday night. Yet it still converted 3-of-4 of those situations.

The Bucs run defense has slid to 12th in the league, allowing an average of 106.8 yards on the ground. Last year, Tampa Bay only allowed an average of 91.6 rushing yards.

Atlanta has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday’s game. Arthur Smith’s Falcons are one of the best running teams in the league, averaging 168 yards per game. That ranks fourth in the league.

“I think they’ve done a great job,” Bowles said. “Their run schemes are outstanding. Probably one of the tops in the league. The defense is playing very well. They do a good job keeping you off balance. [Marcus] Mariota does a good job of running the offense. They have a lot of pieces to use. Obviously the tight end [Kyle Pitts] is great and they have a first-round receiver [Drake London]. They have a lot of pieces and their offensive line is very tough. So they’ve been running the ball on everybody. And considering how we played Sunday, it’s going to be a tough task.”

Atlanta will be without its leading rusher, Cordarrelle Patterson, who was placed on injured reserve on Monday with a knee injury. So perhaps the Bucs will be catching a break.

After dealing with the stress of being displaced due to Hurricane Ian and the stress that the diverse Chiefs offensive attack put on the defense Sunday night, the Bucs could use a break.

STATEMENT 2: Bucs Passing Attack Comes To Life

While the Chiefs could run the ball at will and achieved a balanced attack that kept the Bucs defense off balance all night, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack ground to a halt. The Bucs ran for just three yards and a touchdown on six carries in what was not just the worst performance all year, but the worst rushing day in franchise history.

Tampa Bay ran for just eight yards on five carries against New Orleans on Nov. 8, 2020.

But at least the Bucs could move the ball through the air. Tom Brady completed 39-of-52 passes (76.4%) for a season-high 385 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Mike Evans returned from his suspension to become the franchise’s all-time yardage leader with 9,546, topping James Wilder’s 9,449 yards.

Evans had a pair of touchdowns in a game for the 17th time, which is the most in the league since he entered the NFL in 2014. He had eight catches for 103 yards. Chris Godwin added 59 yards on seven catches in his return from a hamstring injury.

“We felt like we found something in the passing game having those guys back,” Bowles said. “Obviously the chemistry is there. When you’ve got that kind of firepower, you want to use it. It’s not about being balanced. It’s about scoring enough points to win the ball game. I thought they did a decent job in the passing game.”

The Bucs went up-tempo in the second quarter and put up a season-high 31 points. Tampa Bay’s offense scored four touchdowns against Kansas City after scoring a total of three TDs in the first three weeks of the season. Brady said that Sunday’s offensive output could be something that the team can build off of.

“Obviously when we’re throwing and catching the ball well, we’re moving the ball and able to get the ball in the end zone,” Brady said. “It’s going to pay dividends down the road. We’ve just got to go out there and keep practicing it.”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: What Can Be Done To Improve Bucs Run Game?

Use an offensive lineman as a blocking tight end. That’s something the Bucs did back in 2020 with Joe Haeg when blocking tight end Antony Auclair was injured.

A big part of the failure of Tampa Bay’s ground game is the blocking of the tight ends at the point of attack. Cameron Brate is not a good blocker, and Cade Otton and Ko Kieft are rookies who have both whiffed on blocks as they gain experience playing at an NFL level.

Veteran Kyle Rudolph was only active for the Packers game, which Otton missed due to the death of his mother. Rudolph’s blocking was sub-par in that game.

There’s no doubt the Bucs miss the blocking (and playmaking) of future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski. But he’s retired (for now) and the Bucs have to work with what they have.

“It’s not where we want it to be,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said of the running game after the team rushed for just three yards on six carries. “Obviously we have to move the line of scrimmage a little bit better. We’re still working on that and it’s a work in progress.”

Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich used Brandon Walton as an extra tight end in goal line situations on Sunday. Perhaps Walton needs to be used more regularly.

Sure, having an extra offensive lineman serving as a tight end is a dead giveaway that the Bucs will likely run the ball. But Leftwich’s run calls are predictable enough anyways, so Tampa Bay might as well be more effective and just use Walton instead of a tight end for some running plays.

QUESTION 2: Was Hurricane Ian A Factor In Sunday’s Loss?

It was, but that’s not necessarily why the Bucs lost the game. It was simply a lack of execution in all three phases of the game. The Chiefs came out and captured momentum right away with a forced fumble on the opening kickoff and scored a touchdown two plays later. The Bucs did nothing offensively or defensively to recapture the momentum.

After the game, head coach Todd Bowles took the blame for the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs.

“No, we just lost the game,” Bowles said, when asked about the displacement from Hurricane Ian being a reason why the team played poorly. “We didn’t play well. They did a good job, and they kicked our butts all over the field. Turnovers had nothing to do with it. We have to play situational football if they do get it down there and hold up three, at least. Our red zone defense was poor, our run defense was poor, our pass defense was poor, our third-down efficiency was poor and we played a poor game and that falls on me. I’ll take that.”

Bucs defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches indicated that the Bucs were mentally and physically tired from moving to Miami for the week to escape the hurricane and it affected their play.

“I’m not a man of excuses, but you’ve got to understand the things that our guys went through this week with the hurricane,” Nunez-Roches said. “Re-evaluating, driving, families, there’s a lot going on with our bodies. The recovery, the rest, you couldn’t do certain things because you had to evacuate. So your body is still overcoming things from last week that you brought into this week.

“But you still have to execute – the show must go on. So like I said, I don’t like to make excuses, but you saw the results, and you know that’s not who we are. You give us our time – the same amount of time and rest that we normally get – you’ll see what we’re really made of.”

After the game, Bowles told his team in the locker room that he deserved the blame for not having the players prepared.

“He said that it was on him and then Mike Evans immediately stepped up and said, ‘No, it’s on us,’” Bucs right tackle Tristan Wirfs said. “’Coach Bowles isn’t out there playing. He is doing his best to get us ready and we still got to come out here and execute.’ Mike shut that down pretty quick and I think all of us agreed that it’s on us. We’ve got to come out and do our jobs with a good attitude and effort and to the best of our abilities.”

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Might Have To Look At Walton At LG

I don’t think the Bucs will pull the plug on Luke Goedeke at left guard right away, but they need to be considering it. Pro Football Focus isn’t the absolute authority when it comes to grading offensive linemen, but Godeke is the obvious weak link up front.

He has a 51 overall grade from PFF, which makes him the lowest-graded starter on the Bucs offense. Goedeke has a 43.3 pass blocking grade and a 53.5 run blocking grade. He’s had three penalties in four games, given up a sack and eight pressures. Tampa Bay needs to consider trying Brandon Walton at left guard. Walton is a better guard than he is a tackle.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Bounce Back vs. Falcons

The pride of the Bucs’ run defense took a big hit on Sunday night. I think the unit and the team bounces back against the Falcons. Tampa Bay has won four straight games against Atlanta, including two blowouts at home. That streak continues as the Bucs snap a two-game skid and get their first home win of the season to improve to 3-2 on the year.

As much as the run defense needs to rebound, it’s critical that the Bucs offense gets off to a hot start. If Tampa Bay can get out to a big lead with a few early touchdowns, it will force Atlanta to throw the ball more than run it, and that’s not Marcus Mariota’s strength.