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Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks on against the Atlanta Falcons during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

3 reasons the Buccaneers will miss the playoffs

Originally posted on Tampa Bay Buccaneers on SI
By JC Allen | Last updated Dec 25, 2025 9:00 AM ET

Heading into Week 17, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a position they know all too well, trying to rebound from a losing streak and lock up a playoff spot and the NFC South in the final weeks of the season.

Unlike previous seasons, there doesn’t seem to be a simple fix to the Bucs' struggles. Inconsistency has plagued both sides of the ball, including special teams, and to make matters worse. It hasn’t been one person — it's been a culmination of different players at different times, often in critical moments. The coaches and players are saying all the right things, but when it comes down to it on game days, they have not been executing.

That lack of execution has found them in must-win games against the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers just to punch their ticket to the playoffs and end this season with a winning record. However, after losing their last three games, especially with how they lost to the Saints and Falcons. There’s not much confidence that this team can deliver.

If the Bucs don’t make the playoffs this year, the list of reasons will be much more extensive than three, but here are the three biggest reasons they’ll miss out on the postseason for the first time since 2020:

Mental mistakes continue

Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Look, no one’s going to have a perfect game, and as banged up as the Bucs are, no one is expecting them to. But a reduction in the mental errors that have plagued them since the bye week needs to be a mandate.

If this team can’t lock in on Sunday and show an understanding of what their job description is and play within those confines and contribute to the team’s success, then I don’t know if there’s much hope for them the rest of this season.

Penalties have hurt the Bucs, who recorded a staggering seven alone in the fourth quarter of their loss against the Panthers. That lack of focus cannot show up on Sunday. Misreads on defense and not playing within their zone have hurt the defense on several explosive plays, and did so again against the Panthers last week. These kinds of issues should be non-issues at this point in the season, but they’ll likely cost the Bucs the playoffs if they continue.

Baker Mayfield continues to regress

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Baker Mayfield’s play has taken a steep dive since the Bucs' Week 12 loss to the Rams. There’s been some inspiring moments, like the first drive in the Falcons and Panthers games, but the inability to carry it through a game hasn’t shown up since they beat the 49ers in Week 6.

A lack of trust in his protection has caused Mayfield to be more skittish in the pocket with happy feet ready to take off when the first sign of pressure is felt. He’s not able to progress through all his reads and his timing is rushed, which has led to hurried throws off target and has resulted in more turnovers.

This situation showed up on Mayfield’s game-losing interception against the Panthers. Mike Evans thought Mayfield was starting to scramble, which caused him to change his route, resulting in the pick. Unfortunately, there are no answers to the interior pressure, as Cody Mauch is out for the season and Ben Bredeson is on IR. With no help on the way, it surely feels like Mayfield will get worse before he gets better.

Coaching gets in the way

Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Over the course of the Buccaneers' losing slump, it’s been hard to blame the coaching staff for the injuries that have come up and the mental mistakes players have made on the field that have led to disastrous outcomes. However, that wasn’t the case on Sunday against the Panthers.

The Bucs made a concentrated effort to run the ball 30+ times and then attempt to be more physical and control the game. For the most part, it worked until the Panthers adjusted and the Buccaneers did not. They ran the ball on first down 18 times with just one play totaling over 6 yards. It appeared the Bucs were playing scared, aiming for a third and short and keeping a struggling defense off the field.

With the full complement of the receiving corps on the field for just a second time this season, they largely ignored their star-studded cast of weapons. It was an example of the Bucs coaches' inability to adjust their game plan after the Panthers adjusted theirs, and that might be the most damning part of the loss and outlook going forward.