3 young NY Jets players due to break out vs. Dallas defense

The New York Jets’ offense came out with a bang.

To the tune of 32 points, 394 yards, and 23 first downs, New York’s offense looked like a budding juggernaut in its first game under rookie coordinator Tanner Engstrand.

Since then, the Jets have been desperately trying to recapture that magic. Over the last three weeks, New York’s offense has produced just 51 points (17 per game), most of which came in the fourth quarter after the opponent started playing prevent defense.

In fact, since their 19-point first half against Pittsburgh, the Jets have scored just 12 first-half points over the last three games. They have not scored a first-half touchdown since picking up two in Week 1.

As the Jets’ offense looks to return to its lofty ceiling, they could not ask for a better matchup than a home game against the league’s 32nd-ranked defense (per DVOA).

Three young Jets players are positioned for breakout performances this afternoon against Dallas’ weak defense. If the Jets want to pull off their first win of the season, they need these core young players to maximize their advantageous matchups.

WR Garrett Wilson

Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards (827) and receiving touchdowns (9) to wide receivers this season.

Garrett Wilson is off to a consistent start, recording 27 catches for 311 yards and three touchdowns, but he has yet to record a 100+ yard game. This is the week to do it. The Cowboys have allowed three opposing wideouts to post 100+ receiving yards.

Dallas doesn’t have anyone who can contend with Wilson. Each of their starting outside cornerbacks, Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam, has allowed a passer rating above 155 on throws into their coverage. All five corners who have played a snap for Dallas have allowed a passer rating of 98+ and a completion percentage of at least 70%.

TE Mason Taylor

New York’s second-round pick saw his production trend upward throughout September. His target total increased each week, culminating in career highs of five receptions, seven targets, and 65 receiving yards in last week’s loss to Miami.

With nobody emerging for the Jets as a consistent WR2, Mason Taylor has a chance to solidify his role as New York’s secondary target. He is facing a golden opportunity to stake his claim to that role against a Cowboys defense with many exploitable defenders at linebacker and safety.

All four of Dallas’ primary starters at linebacker and safety have a coverage grade below 56.0 at Pro Football Focus. Combined, the quartet of LB Jack Sanborn, LB Kenneth Murray Jr., S Malik Hooker, and S Donovan Wilson has allowed a passer rating of 121.4 on throws into their coverage.

When targeting those four players, opponents have completed 81.3% of their passes for 10.2 yards per attempt. New York has a chance to generate excellent results by peppering Taylor with targets this afternoon.

Hooker has been ruled out for Dallas, rendering the Cowboys even more vulnerable against a slick route-running tight end like Taylor.

LT Olu Fashanu

The Jets’ offensive line has enjoyed a solid overall start. The main thing holding them back from being even better is the cold start of second-year left tackle Olu Fashanu.

New York’s 2024 first-round pick has yet to take the second-year leap that many expected after he set a solid foundation in his rookie year. Through four games, he has allowed 13 pressures and committed three penalties.

However, Fashanu began trending upward in last week’s game against Miami. He committed no penalties and allowed just one pressure on 39 pass-blocking snaps; his 88.6 pass-blocking grade at Pro Football Focus ranked third among all tackles in Week 4.

The odds are in Fashanu’s favor to build on that performance. He will face a Cowboys defense that has struggled mightily to generate pressure off the edge.

Dallas’ primary edge rushers (who rotate sides), Dante Fowler and Sam Williams, have yet to record a sack across 169 combined pass-rush snaps. In terms of pass-rush win rate, neither player ranks in the top 50 among 108 qualified edge rushers.

Fashanu has a favorable opportunity to come out of Week 5 as one of the NFL’s hottest tackles. If he continues on that trajectory moving forward, he could quickly shrug off his cold start and establish himself as New York’s long-term left tackle by the end of his second season.