49ers' Christian McCaffrey is NFC West's biggest X-factor

The San Francisco 49ers finished last in the NFC West in 2024 with a 6-11 record, going just 1-5 against division opponents. Injuries plagued the team throughout the season, but no absence was felt more on offense than that of Christian McCaffrey.

The star running back appeared in only four games, starting the season on injured reserve due to a prolonged battle with Achilles tendinitis and ending it on IR with a PCL injury. McCaffrey totaled a career-low 348 scrimmage yards and failed to score a touchdown, looking nothing like the NFL Offensive Player of the Year he had been just one season earlier.

Bleacher Report's Moe Moton recently analyzed the NFL landscape, naming the top X-factor for each division's 2025 race. For the NFC West, McCaffrey was the clear choice.

Moton noted that under head coach Kyle Shanahan's eight-season tenure, the 49ers have experienced both highs and lows, winning 10 or more games in four seasons but six or fewer in the other four.

After a lengthy search, the 49ers appear to have solidified their quarterback situation, signing Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension this offseason, keeping him in the Bay Area through the 2030 season.

"The 25-year-old helps the 49ers remain competitive, but Christian McCaffrey can take this team over the top," Moton wrote. "San Francisco acquired the three-time Pro Bowler in the middle of the 2022 campaign, and he changed the complexion of the team's offense and season outlook."

San Francisco started 2022 with a 3-4 record, but once McCaffrey was fully integrated into the offense, the team went on a 10-game winning streak to close out the season, reaching the NFC Championship Game. The following year, McCaffrey exploded for 2,023 scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns, helping the 49ers earn a Super Bowl berth.

McCaffrey's impact on the 49ers' success has been undeniable.

"Without McCaffrey for most of [last] season, Purdy posted decent numbers (3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions)," Moton noted, "but the 49ers didn't field a dominant ground game, which is a staple in Shanahan's offense."

Behind McCaffrey, the 49ers have second-year running back Isaac Guerendo and rookie Jordan James, a fifth-round draft pick. While the veteran running back's competitive nature makes him stubborn when it comes to staying on the field, the 49ers may look to ensure he isn't overworked.

"The coach insinuated that the 49ers could limit McCaffrey's workload following his injury-riddled year," Moton added, "but the team needs to find a healthy balance with him on the field in crucial stretches.

"The 49ers' 2025 outlook hinges on McCaffrey's availability and how many touches he can handle, given eight years of wear and tear on his body."

McCaffrey's health and performance in 2025 could be the biggest factor in determining how the NFC West division race unfolds.