49ers' former first-round pick departs after producing his best season at exactly the wrong time

It took four years, but the San Francisco 49ers got a healthy season of consistent play from 2020 first-round pick Javon Kinlaw. The problem is that it came at exactly the wrong time.

Defensive tackle Kinlaw said farewell to the 49ers on Monday, agreeing to a one-year deal with the New York Jets. Kinlaw was drafted 14th overall after the Niners acquired an additional first-round pick in the trade that sent DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts, with the 49ers choosing to pay Arik Armstead rather than Buckner. With Kinlaw gone and Armstead set to be released for salary cap reasons, the story of a trade that is still controversial in the eyes of many fans has reached a frustrating end for the Niners.

Kinlaw's departure follows a 2023 season in which he regularly produced the kind of performances the 49ers always believed he was capable of, with a knee injury suffered late in his rookie season derailing the subsequent two years of his career for San Francisco. 

Kinlaw's persistent knee problems left San Francisco with little choice but to decline his fifth-year option, which ensured he would be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

The former South Carolina star is far from the first player to find form in a contract year, but Kinlaw's 2023 was markedly different than the typical pending free agent playing for a big-time deal. With his injury history, such a deal was never likely to be on the horizon, but Kinlaw's final season for the 49ers saw both player and team find joy in his potential being belatedly realized after so much frustration.

Though Kinlaw's career-high sack total of 3.5 will be considered meagre by most, the advanced metrics are reflective of the disruption he frequently delivered from the interior. Kinlaw, per Pro Football Focus, had 31 pressures in 2023, with 27 of those coming in true pass sets.

Kinlaw's pass rush win rate on true pass sets was 18.1 percent, tied with Jeffery Simmons of the Tennessee Titans for 20th among interior defensive linemen with at least 200 pass rush snaps.

His play in the run game was up and down, but Kinlaw came alive in that regard in the 49ers' run to the Super Bowl, producing six stops that constituted failures for the opposing offense, including two third-down stops in San Francisco's NFC Championship Game win over the Detroit Lions and another in the Super Bowl, during which he also pressured Patrick Mahomes into an intentional grounding penalty.

Had the 49ers picked up his option, they could look forward to him building on a hugely encouraging campaign as part of their defensive line rotation. With Armstead set to be let go after refusing to agree to a pay cut, Kinlaw could have had the chance to thrive in a more prominent role next to Javon Hargrave.

Instead, a confluence of factors — not taking the option, Kinlaw’s 2023 improvement and the 49ers’ difficult salary cap situation — left San Francisco in a difficult spot with their former top pick as the franchise attempts to navigate the challenges of adding to a championship roster while keeping some of their own in a year where they don't have as much room for maneuver as they might like.

The 49ers were naturally thrilled to see Kinlaw finally play a healthy year and impress, but the timing of the upturn in his fortunes means they won't get to reap the rewards if he continues on an upward trajectory.

For San Francisco, it is a deeply unsatisfying end to the tale of one of the most contentious roster building decisions of the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch era. Kinlaw may go on to blossom playing for his old defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, but for the 49ers it's a tale of what might have been.