49ers on Upset Alert Against the Cowboys

The San Francisco 49ers arrive at AT&T Stadium on Sunday with a 7-1 record and four consecutive wins over the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco has earned its place as the favorite, although Dallas has plenty riding on this game after improving to 4-5 with last week's 27-23 victory over Indianapolis.

The Giants lead the NFC East at 5-3-1, and the Cowboys begin a three-game homestand against San Francisco, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Winning all three would put Dallas at 7-5 and give it a chance to challenge for the division lead, depending on New York's results. Dak Prescott gave the Cowboys reason to believe they can make that run when he led a late touchdown drive to beat the Colts.

The 49ers Must Disrupt Prescott

San Francisco's defense will face a quarterback coming off a 335-yard, two-touchdown performance. CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown in that game, and Prescott started the winning drive with a 46-yard completion to Ryan Flournoy. Dallas produced those numbers without George Pickens, who practiced fully on Friday and is expected to return against the 49ers.

Lamb can attack from the slot or outside, while Pickens gives Prescott another threat downfield. Tight end Jake Ferguson is out, but San Francisco still has to account for two receivers who can turn a missed assignment into a substantial gain.

The 49ers expect starting cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green, along with slot corner Upton Stout, to be available after all three dealt with injuries during the week. They remain officially questionable, and their ability to stay with Dallas' receivers could depend on how much time Prescott has to throw.

San Francisco has gone two games without a sack, although Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Osa Odighizuwa generated pressure against Las Vegas. Raheem Morris can bring extra rushers to challenge a Dallas offense that has struggled against blitzes, but Prescott could punish that approach by finding Lamb or Pickens against coverage with fewer defenders.

Even if the 49ers keep Prescott uncomfortable, turnovers or penalties that extend Dallas' drives would give him additional chances to find a favorable matchup.

Mistakes Have Kept Opponents in Games

San Francisco handed Arizona that kind of opportunity in September after opening a 23-6 lead. A muffed punt gave the Cardinals another possession in 49ers territory, and Arizona controlled the ball for 38 minutes and 44 seconds before San Francisco escaped with a 36-30 victory.

The 49ers carried a 20-3 halftime lead into the second half against Washington in October, only to see penalties help the Commanders get back into the game. San Francisco was flagged 11 times for 88 yards, including an illegal-contact penalty that erased a fourth-quarter sack and allowed Washington to continue its drive. The 49ers held on, 23-17.

A week later in Atlanta, those mistakes cost San Francisco the game. The 49ers led 14-3 before four turnovers helped the Falcons take control. Atlanta scored 13 points off those takeaways and won 29-20, handing San Francisco its only loss.

Prescott has the passing attack to make similar opportunities costly, particularly if a turnover gives him a short field or a third-down penalty keeps Lamb and Pickens on the field. Dallas is averaging 27.3 points per game, and its comeback against Indianapolis showed how quickly that offense can respond when given another opportunity.

The 49ers can limit those chances by sustaining their own drives against a defense allowing 147.4 rushing yards per game. Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy give Kyle Shanahan ways to keep Dallas defending, while Trent Williams remains questionable with a shoulder injury that could affect both run blocking and pass protection.

Dallas committed 14 penalties for 153 yards against Indianapolis and still found a way to win. San Francisco has the stronger team and enough offensive talent to control the game, provided it protects the football and keeps Dallas from extending drives with penalties.

Prescott needed less than half a minute to put Dallas back in front against the Colts. Giving him extra opportunities on Sunday could be all the Cowboys need to pull off the upset.