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49ers Rookie Expectations: Kaelon Black

Originally posted on San Francisco 49ers on SI
By Parker Hurley | Last updated May 7, 2026 11:00 AM ET

With the NFL draft behind us, it is a good time to look at what the rookie years could look like for some of these players. While the rookie year does not define them, it will give a solid baseline expectation moving forward. What should the San Francisco 49ers expect from Kaelon Black in year one?

San Francisco 49ers' realistic expectations for Kaelon Black

Since 2012, there have been 53 running backs drafted between picks 75 and 120. While the list is scattered with a lot of draft misses, there are some good names that came from this range. In total this group averaged 90 carries for 371 yards and four touchdowns.

This is a fair expectation for him, and if he does not get to at least 144 yards, there might be a reason to be concerned. Damien Harris had just 12 yards as a rookie and then ended up having a decent career as a backup. The other backs to go under 144 yards are Tank Bigbsy, KeShawn Vaughn, Tyrion Davis-Price, Trevor Etienne, Kaleb Johnson, Kene Nwangnu, Darrynton Evans, Mark Walton, MarShawn Lloyd, Jalston Flower, Tyler Ervin, and Jarquez Hunter. Being drafted in this range and not getting on the field as a rookie has shown no success.

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The only notable running backs drafted in this range with under 300 yards are Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, and James Conner. If you add Damien Harris, that is four out of 23 running backs to even be a decent backup after not producing 300 yards as a rookie.

Still, even players such as Tre Mason, Andre Williams, and Terrance West put up over 700 yards as a rookie and were never heard from again, so producing in this range is not a guarantee for success.

Kareem Hunt and De’Von Achane both were 800 yards and are two of the best names in this group; however, they were essentially handed a job in an empty backfield as rookies.

Rhamondre Stevenson, David Johnson, Rachaad White, Samaje Perine, Jerrick McKinnon, Cam Skattebo, Miller, Freeman, and Conner are the big hits from this sample. That group averaged 103 carries and 429 yards, with the range going from 144 yards to 606. Considering Brian Robinson Jr. had 92 rushes for 400 yards last year and his job is to be a slight upgrade from that, 103 carries, and 429 is about the perfect expectation for Black as a rookie.

This article first appeared on San Francisco 49ers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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