49ers rookie prediction highlights concerns about key offensive weapon

San Francisco 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey is coming off an NFL Comeback Player of the Year campaign. In 2025, he totaled an impressive 2,126 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns, reestablishing himself as one of the NFL's most dynamic offensive weapons.

McCaffrey led the NFL with 413 offensive touches. However, that heavy workload could become a concern heading into the 2026 season. At least, that's the implication behind Bleacher Report's latest prediction.

McCaffrey has eclipsed 2,000 scrimmage yards three times in his career. Unfortunately, the two previous occasions were followed by injury-plagued seasons. After posting a career-high 2,392 scrimmage yards in 2019, McCaffrey appeared in just three games in 2020. Then, after totaling 2,023 scrimmage yards and earning NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2023, injuries limited him to only four games in 2024.

Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport recently identified five overlooked rookie running backs who could make a major impact in 2026, including 49ers third-round draft pick Kaelon Black. The former Indiana standout rushed for 1,040 yards and 10 touchdowns during his final collegiate season and enters training camp as the favorite to serve as McCaffrey's primary backup.

Of course, Black emerging as an impact rookie would likely mean a lighter workload for McCaffrey. If that's part of the 49ers' plan to better manage the All-Pro's touches and keep him healthy for the postseason, it could benefit the offense. If it's the result of another injury, however, it would be a significant setback for the 49ers' offense, as McCaffrey is quarterback Brock Purdy's most versatile weapon.

"Christian McCaffrey topped 2,000 total yards for the 49ers last year," Davenport wrote, "but he's also a 30-year-old back coming off a season where he had a career-high 413 touches. After each of his first two 2,000-yard campaigns, he missed at least 13 games.

"If McCaffrey goes down, Black is going to be thrust into a prominent role—potentially as San Francisco's lead back."

The encouraging news for the 49ers is that Black has already made a strong impression on his new teammates, including veteran fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

"I've been so impressed by Kaelan Black," Juszczyk recently told Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. "He, number one, is a ball of muscle. This guy is absolutely jacked, and he's explosive. That's really what has stood out to me—is how twitchy and explosive he gets through that hole.

"And he runs so hard, and you can feel that even in practice without pads on, which is unique. Because I know I've felt it. I've been engaged in a block, and him just working through the hole, and just being forced to kind of run into that guy that I'm already engaged in, and I could feel that force that he was exerting."

Black's impact hasn't been limited to the practice field. Juszczyk also praised the rookie's ability to quickly grasp head coach Kyle Shanahan's complex offensive system.

"So, been really impressed with him physically, mentally as well," Juszczyk said. "Just a guy that seems to get it, that works hard, that cares about the classroom. So, I think there's a lot of good things ahead for Kaelan, and I think he's going to help us."

Whether Black is called upon because of load management or an injury setback, the rookie could position himself for a meaningful role. For the 49ers, the ideal scenario is simple: keep McCaffrey healthy while developing the young backup to contribute more in the future.