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Oct 19, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates the touchdown of running back RJ Harvey (12) in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

5 Bold Broncos Predictions for Massive Chiefs Showdown

Originally posted on Denver Broncos on SI
By Erick Trickel | Last updated Nov 16, 2025 9:00 AM ET

The Denver Broncos have a chance to all but lock up the AFC West division if they can pull off the win at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Even though the Broncos lead the division at 8-2 and are the home team, they're considered the underdog, and a win would be an upset over the Chiefs' decade-long reign in the West.

For the Broncos to pull out the win, get to 9-2, and keep themselves in an excellent position to win, they will need to achieve greatness. These bold predictions would represent that greatness, but getting close enough could do it, too.

RJ Harvey Rushes for 100-Plus Yards With 150-Plus Scrimmage Yards

The Broncos will be without J.K. Dobbins for the rest of the season, and Harvey has not been a consistent runner as a rookie. Harvey's 50 attempts for 214 yards is a 4.3 average, but he has two runs for 90 yards, and without them, his 48 rushes for 124 yards is 2.6.

That is not consistent enough, as evidenced by being in the bottom three in success rate (32%) among backs with at least 50 rushing attempts.

Without Dobbins, Harvey has to step up and be the lead back for the Broncos, and the added carries help him find some consistency vs. the Chiefs. Harvey busts off a long run as well, on his way to a 100-plus-yard rushing game, and he adds some plays as a receiver to bring his total scrimmage yards to over 150.

Bo Nix Completes 80% of His Throws of 20-Plus Yards

There has been a serious disconnect with Nix and his receivers when attacking deep. He actually is tied for the most in the NFL with 47 throws of 20-plus yards, while completing only 15 of them.

That leads to the third-lowest out of 25 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage on such throws, ahead of Trevor Lawrence and Michael Penix. However, after adjusting for drops, Nix then has the ninth-lowest adjusted completion percentage.

The Chiefs have been a top 10 passing defense when opponents challenge deep, so it’s not like life will be easy for Nix and the Broncos to get it done. However, the time away has allowed Nix and his receivers to get together and figure out the issue, and it helps them hit the deep shots reliably.

Patrick Mahomes Held to Under 200 Passing Yards

Mahomes is 13-1 against the Broncos, and in those 15 games, he has been held under 200 yards twice, including one game that he left early with an injury. Mahomes averages about 270 yards passing in his games against the Broncos.

So far this season, the Broncos have held five teams to under 200 yards passing, including their two most recent games. While the quality of quarterback play hasn’t been on Mahomes’ level, it has given the Broncos confidence that carries over into an outstanding performance by their coverage unit.

Broncos Notch Five Sacks

The Broncos' pass rush is a well-known threat and the lifeblood of the defense. When the pass rush does well, the defense does well, and the Broncos have typically done so against Mahomes and the Chiefs over the years.

With the Chiefs getting left tackle Josh Simmons back recently, that will help their pass protection, but there are still plenty of openings for the Broncos to get after Mahomes and bring him down. Even though the Chiefs have the third-lowest pressure percentage allowed, they haven’t quite faced a pass rush like Denver’s this season.

Denver Wins the Turnover & Penalty Battle

The referee crew for the Chiefs-Broncos game is going to raise some eyebrows with their history of calling Kansas City games. Adrian Hill and his crew are the officiating crew on Sunday.

In divisional games reffed by Hill's crew, the home team is 13-16, while the Chiefs are 4-0, including 3-0 on the road. They are tied for the most offensive holding penalties and lead in offensive pass interference, and they call an above-average number of pass interference and defensive holding.

Riley Moss needs to be on notice because this is a game where the Broncos can’t shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and walk out with the win. Even with the referee crew and their tendencies in calls, Denver wins the penalty battle against the Chiefs, though barely.

As for the turnover battle, Nix and the Broncos play a clean game, and they don’t turn it over on special teams, meaning no turnovers in the Chiefs' favor. However, the Broncos' defense scores a pair of takeaways, with their special teams adding a third, and Denver wins the turnover battle 3-0.