
The Denver Broncos have the not-so-fearsome Las Vegas Raiders coming to town on a short week. Still, the Raiders are a divisional opponent, and such rivalry games are almost always challenging.
Even though the Raiders have had a terrible season, the Broncos can’t overlook them, even with the Kansas City Chiefs coming up afterward.
These two teams have met often, with the Raiders holding the series lead at 76-56-2. However, after an eight-game losing streak, the Broncos have bounced back, winning both games last season, and they need to carry that over into this year.
The Broncos currently lead the AFC West race, but they have already lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in their lone divisional game thus far. Beating the Raiders would keep the Broncos at the top of the division without putting them in a 0-2 hole. It would also give the Broncos a 2.5-game lead over the Chiefs, with Kansas City on a bye and coming to Denver next week.
In this Thursday night game against the Raiders, the Broncos should be able to get close to these bold predictions, but if they reach them, it’ll mean they're walking out with their seventh straight win. Now, let's get to the bold predictions.
Twice this season, the Broncos have rushed for at least 175 yards, while the Raiders have only allowed it once, though they have allowed two additional games over 150 yards. On a short week, Denver could place extra emphasis on running the ball, as the Raiders will be playing at altitude with less rest. So, the Broncos could use the run game to wear down the Raiders.
With how inconsistent the Broncos' passing offense has been, there may be even more emphasis put on the run game. When the Broncos can run the ball, the offense shows more consistency, so they need to come out and establish the run, then stick with it.
As a result of doing exactly that, Denver breaks the 175-yard mark, with J.K. Dobbins eclipsing 100 yards once again, becoming the first Broncos running back to do that in a single season since Melvin Gordon in 2021.
Maxx Crosby is a threat, but the Raiders have struggled to generate pressure outside of him. Only two other defenders have double-digit pressures, and as a team, the Raiders have hit double-digit pressures in a game only twice this season.
The Broncos have found more balance inside with their pass protection, and Garett Bolles continues to play at an All-Pro level as the best left tackle in the NFL so far this season. However, the Broncos have allowed four games to hit 10-plus pressures this season.
With Crosby as the main threat, the Broncos can focus on him to keep him from taking over the game. Denver is also able to rely on the ground game to keep the pass rush on their heels.
Denver can get after quarterbacks unlike any other team in the NFL over the past two seasons. The Broncos can get after Geno Smith from anywhere on defense and have shown they can win with reasonable consistency, only bringing in four because of the talent they have up front.
Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers, Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, and the rest should be able to feast against this Raiders offensive line, which is allowing a pressure rate of 35.5%. The Broncos have broken that 55% pressure rate once this season, as have the Raiders, who allowed it once this season — and it happens again in Week 10.
Denver has too much pass-rush power for the Raiders to stop, and with Vegas' running game eliminated, it puts more pressure on them to move the ball in the air. Denver’s secondary holds up once again without Patrick Surtain II.
The Broncos' defense's season-high run-stuff rate is 25%, while the Raiders' offense has been under 25% once this season. Based on their season averages, the Broncos have the ninth-highest run-stuff rate, while the Raiders are allowing the league-high 28%. It's a battle of a good run defense vs. a terrible rushing offense.
In the end, the Broncos' defense stands tall and stuffs the Raiders on at least 35% of their runs as they take the rookie sensation, Ashton Jeanty, out of the game. There is a significant advantage for the Broncos' defensive front against this Raiders offensive line, and it’ll be abundantly clear.
Darren Rizzi and the Broncos' special teams have been put on notice; aside from punter Jeremy Crawshaw and kicker Wil Lutz, they have been terrible. Sean Payton did not hide his frustrations with the unit's performance after the dismal showing against the Houston Texans.
As a response, even on a short week, Rizzi and company get the message and not only play a clean game on special teams, but the Broncos' third phase also has a good day. Now, given what the unit has shown, a good day is relative and might be in the eye of the beholder.
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