
The Denver Broncos are facing their most formidable defense yet in their upcoming game against the Houston Texans. In many data points, the Texans have the best defense in the NFL, which is the polar opposite of what the Broncos faced last Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Broncos' offense has been inconsistent this season, although they're coming off an offensive explosion vs. the Cowboys. The question is whether the Broncos can show even a fraction of that against a more formidable opponent.
The Broncos can’t start slow or put themselves in a hole, and they must carry the improvements they've made into this game against the Texans and prove the offensive explosion wasn’t because of the caliber of opponent or the desperation of an impossible fourth-quarter deficit.
For them to do that, the Broncos have a few matchups they need to be wary of. Given how threatening the Texans' defense is, these matchups are more about the Broncos slowing it down, finding wins, and, most importantly, not letting it wreck their game plan.
Let’s get into it.
This will be a test for Nix, as the Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL under Ryans this year. The Texans are running zone coverage almost 80% of the time, while Nix ranks 32nd out of 38 quarterbacks in success rate and 20th in EPA/play, but 14th in raw passing EPA.
It has been a mixed bag against the zone for Nix, but digging deeper, the Texans run cover-3 and cover-4 on nearly 60% of their plays, and the results remain mixed, although it's on the more positive side. Nix has done his best work against cover-1 and cover-6, which the Texans have run on about 25% of their defensive plays.
Against the Texans' primary coverages, Nix has a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When facing cover-3 — the coverage he has faced the most — Nix is 2-to-2 in the TD-to-INT ratio, but completes about 66% of his passes with a +0.07 EPA/Play. When teams have thrown cover-4 at Nix, he has been efficient, but the big plays haven't been found, as he averages 4.8 yards per completion.
Nix will need to be more consistent and find the big plays against the Texans' primary coverage, as Ryans' calls dictate. When they get into those cover-1 and cover-6 looks, the Nix has to capitalize on those plays, which is where he has been the most efficient and has the highest EPA/pass.
The Broncos' tackles have been a solid duo, with Garett Bolles playing at an elite level and Mike McGlinchey slightly above average, but they have yet to face a pass-rush duo like Anderson and Hunter. In 199 pass rush snaps, Anderson has 42 pressures, with Hunter having 29 on 206 pass rush snaps.
Bolles has allowed five pressures all season, with McGlinchey allowing 18 pressures. In their last matchup with the Texans, McGlinchey allowed three pressures, while Bolles allowed one, but that was in 2023 with a different quarterback for Denver and a different-looking defense for the Texans. However, Anderson was a monster that game, recording eight pressures alone.
The Broncos will need to remain a strong unit in pass protection and help Nix by giving him clean pockets to operate from. While Nix has done better under pressure in recent weeks, it remains a concerning area for the Broncos' passing offense.
Typically, the Texans keep their corners on one side and don’t have them shadow receivers, but they have had Stingley follow teams' top receivers in certain games, and this could be one of them. The reason is that the Broncos have a clear top receiver in Sutton and would task Stingley with taking him out of the game.
Even with this mindset, Stingley has shadowed a receiver on 47.5% of his snaps, which ranks 21st, but that doesn’t always mean he is shadowing the team's top receiver. Again, this is a game with a clear top receiver, who Stingley matches up well with, and will likely be tasked with taking him out of the game.
Sutton has done well against zone coverage this season, though he ranks second in target share on the Broncos roster behind Troy Franklin, who has 25 of his 33 catches for 318 yards against zone. Sutton sits with 22 catches and 322 yards against zone coverage, and he brings life to the offense, so the Broncos need him to step up.
Franklin should make an impact in this game, as he has developed into a good zone-beater who finds the soft spot and makes himself a target. But Sutton is the key matchup, with the expectation that Stingley will shadow him for most of the game. If the Broncos can get some big plays against Stingley, it can boost the offense's confidence while being demoralizing to the defense.
Meinerz is coming off the best game of his season, where he was an absolute monster in the run game and more than held his own in pass protection. He will find himself going against Rankins for most of the game, who has been the Texans' best interior defensive lineman.
The Texans have had some issues against the run, and if there is a weak point in the defense, that is where it comes from. Rankins is a key piece in what makes their defense successful against the run, which emphasizes Meinerz winning this matchup to help the Broncos' rushing offense take pressure off the passing game.
As a unit, the Texans rank in the middle of the pack for run defense, ranking 14th in rushing defense success rate and 15th in EPA/rush. This is the opening for the Broncos' offense, and they need Meinerz to be a tone-setter and take out their best interior run defender consistently.
The Broncos brought Engram in to be that mismatch weapon, and they need to do what they can to force those advantages. Even though the Texans have done well against tight ends this season, Engram needs to keep stepping up to be the weapon Denver brought him in to be.
Over the past few weeks, the Broncos have gotten more out of Engram than they did in the first few weeks of the season, with the change occurring at halftime against the Philadelphia Eagles. Denver will have a tough time against the best passing coverage team in the NFL, and Engram exploiting his matchups can take a lot of pressure off Nix.
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