5 NFL Coaches With 1 Year Left To Save Their Jobs Before 2026 Ends

Detroit’s Dan Campbell enters 2026 with his job security publicly questioned for the first time since his breakout run, after reporting in May flagged that he had been put on notice ahead of the season. The Lions were widely viewed as one of the NFC’s most talented rosters, but back-to-back postseason disappointments have shifted ownership’s patience from unlimited to conditional. Jared Goff’s play remains the swing factor, because Detroit’s offensive identity lives and dies with his rhythm. Campbell is not in the same danger tier as the coaches below, but the fact that he is being discussed at all is the story.

The Mechanics: Why the Notice Actually Matters

Reporting around Campbell’s willingness to remain involved in play-calling reflects the added pressure of 2026. Detroit declined to schedule joint practices this summer, a subtle signal that the staff wants total control over the environment heading into a make-or-better season. If the offense stalls or the defense fails to take a step forward under its new coordinator structure, Campbell’s notice becomes something louder, and the 2027 carousel conversation starts in Detroit.

4. Todd Bowles, Three Division Titles and One Lost Season

Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles told reporters, “I’ve earned the chance. I’ve won three straight division titles. So that says a lot as far as I’m concerned.” The Buccaneers then faded down the stretch and finished 8-9, missing the playoffs entirely. Baker Mayfield’s late-season slump mirrored the team’s collapse, and whether Mayfield bounces back in 2026 is now directly tied to Bowles’s job security. Ownership kept Bowles, but the goodwill from those three NFC South banners is effectively gone.

The Mechanics: Why Bowles Is Really on the Clock

The defense that once defined Bowles’s Buccaneers regressed sharply in 2025, and he is now being asked to fix his own unit. With the NFC South tightening and the roster aging at key spots, another non-playoff finish leaves ownership with little reason to extend patience a third time. The early schedule includes a divisional opener that will immediately set the tone, and a slow start would intensify hot-seat chatter by October.

3. Kevin O’Connell, A 43-25 Record With a Hole in It

O’Connell owns a 43-25 regular-season record but is 0-2 in the playoffs, and Minnesota missed the 2025 postseason at 9-8. The gap between regular-season success and January failure is the entire argument against him. J.J. McCarthy’s development now sits at the center of that argument, because ownership’s decision to keep O’Connell was effectively a decision to let him shape the young quarterback’s future.

The Mechanics: Now Operating Without His GM

Minnesota fired GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in January 2026 while retaining O’Connell, a move reporting framed as an “all-in bet” on the coach. ESPN’s post-firing analysis centered on McCarthy’s growth, not O’Connell’s playoff record, signaling that quarterback development is the true scoreboard for 2026. With no executive buffer between him and ownership, another January miss closes the window.

2. Shane Steichen, The Most Improbable Collapse in NFL History

Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to reach six games over .500 and finish with a losing record, crashing from 8-2 to 8-9 per ESPN Research. Steichen’s career mark sits in the mid-20s in wins across three seasons. The Colts retained both Steichen and GM Chris Ballard, but the quarterback room, split between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, is the real pressure point heading into 2026.

The Mechanics: How the Colts’ Bet Actually Works

Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon framed the decision as a bet on roster potential rather than results. Indianapolis invested heavily at quarterback and in the secondary during the 2025 season, and those moves only pay off if the team rebounds quickly. ESPN’s post-collapse analysis tied Steichen’s future directly to the QB situation, not just roster talent, meaning another inconsistent year from the position likely ends his run regardless of the final record.

1. Aaron Glenn, 3-14 and Still Standing

Glenn’s debut season ended 3-14, one of the worst finishes in Jets history, yet multiple insiders reported he would be retained. FOX Sports insider Jay Glazer confirmed Glenn would remain safe despite the historically bad finish. Justin Fields, the veteran quarterback the Jets committed to in 2025, now enters a pivotal second year, and his performance will largely decide whether Glenn gets a third season.

The Mechanics: The Overhaul That Has to Work

Glenn replaced both coordinators, installing Frank Reich as offensive coordinator and Brian Duker as defensive coordinator, and brought in six new offensive assistants and four new defensive assistants. He is also pivoting from a CEO style to hands-on coaching, with ESPN reporting he will be “hands-on in 2026, which is a potential make-or-break year for him.” ESPN also flagged the quarterback decision as the single biggest item on Glenn’s offseason laundry list, bigger even than the staff overhaul.

The Near-Miss Coach Worth Watching

Not every coach on the hot-seat radar sits at the same temperature. Denver’s Sean Payton gave up play-calling duties for 2026 after banking his offseason on a retooled roster, a move that buys time but also concentrates blame if results slip. He is a tier safer than the five profiled here, but not immune if 2026 goes wrong.

So Who Gets Fired First?

Campbell has his résumé. Bowles has his division titles. O’Connell has his regular-season wins. Steichen has his roster potential. Glenn has his staff overhaul. Each coach clings to a different justification for why ownership showed restraint, but justifications expire. The 2026 season strips away every excuse and reduces five careers to a single question: can you win now?

Only one of these five makes it to 2027. Which name do you circle, and which one are you absolutely certain survives? Tell us in the comments.

Sources:
ESPN, “Colts coach Shane Steichen, GM Chris Ballard to return in 2026,” Jan. 3, 2026
ESPN, “A laundry list of offseason changes awaits Aaron Glenn, Jets,” Jan. 3, 2026
FOX Sports, “Vikings Fire General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah After Missing Playoffs,” Jan. 29, 2026
ESPN, “What’s next for Vikings’ O’Connell, McCarthy after GM firing?” Feb. 5, 2026
The New York Times, “How the Jets’ new-look coaching staff stacks up under Aaron Glenn,” Feb. 13, 2026
ESPN, “What the Colts’ historic collapse could mean for their future,” Dec. 31, 2025