A Dozen Wins? Quote The Ravens, Over More

Why the betting market's lukewarm take on the Ravens is horribly misplaced...

Call me a Lamar Jackson apologist if you like, but any take outside of unbridled bullishness for Baltimore is planting a flag on the wrong side of history. After three first-team All-Pros, three AFC Player Of The Years, two Bert Bell awards, and a couple of NFL MVPs, the betting market's experiencing greatness fatigue. Baltimore wrapped up 2024 with 12 wins, after greatly improving the defense mid-stream — yet their opening line for this upcoming season hasn't budged.

The Ravens' offense dominated their opposition last season across every macro metric on the spreadsheet. Sometimes, the ranked stats speak for themselves...

• 30.5 Points Per Game: 3rd
• 9.2 Average Point Differential: T-3rd
• 424.9 Yards Per Game: 1st
• 6.8 Yards Per Play: 1st
• 101 Net Yard Differential: 1st
• +0.16 EPA/Play: 1st
• 38.6 Average Drive Distance: 1st
• 2.2 First Downs Per Drive: T-2nd

I alluded to a defensive move that made such an impact, frankly I was shocked to see their baseline win total open short of 13. Right around the Ravens' bye last year, DC Zach Orr moved former Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton from a versatile box/slot role to a more conventional full-time free safety. And the results were palpable.

Baltimore's pre and post bye splits jump off the page. What if they pick up in 2025 right where they left off?

• Points Allowed Per Game: 24.5 ⏩ 10.8
• Yards Allowed Per Game: 347.6 ⏩ 248.0
• Yards Allowed Per Play: 5.4 ⏩ 4.3
• EPA/Snap: -0.03 ⏩ +0.21 

To top it off, the Ravens bolstered multiple levels of their defense with first-round pick S Malaki Starks (Georgia) and second-round selection DE Mike Green (Marshall). If they get anything from these youngsters, BAL could lead the league in victories running away.