A Javon Kinlaw prove-it deal makes sense for him and the 49ers

Kinlaw's strong postseason

Though the 49er defense struggled in its first two games in the postseason, Kinlaw was one of San Francisco's better performers on that side of the ball in the playoffs.

Kinlaw registered a quarterback hit and three tackles in the divisional round win over the Green Bay Packers, a game in which the 49ers largely struggled against the run. San Francisco's defense was porous, at least in the first half, of the NFC Championship  Game against the Detroit Lions, but Kinlaw had a pair of pressures, three tackles and two stops that constituted failures for the offense, per Pro Football Focus, and was a key factor in the Niners turning things around on that side of the ball in an historic comeback.

His best arguably came in the Super Bowl. Kinlaw had a pressure of Patrick Mahomes that led to an intentional grounding penalty and also made a run stop on third down in the third quarter to force a Kansas City punt. He was credited with three stops that represented offensive failures.

The fact that Kinlaw's 3.5 sacks were a career high were indicative of how disappointing of a top-15 selection he has been. But, during the 2023 season, and especially in the playoffs, the 49ers saw plenty of the player they always knew Kinlaw could become when they picked him.

The grass isn't always greener

With the boost the 49ers received from the NFL after the league announced a salary cap of $255.4 million rather than the anticipated $242 million, they have more wiggle room with which to attempt to hold on to their own players.

Kinlaw is one such player they should attempt to retain. Armstead and Javon Hargrave are the 49ers' starting defensive tackles for 2024, but Kinlaw is at worst a valuable rotational player who with even more snaps could build on the encouraging 2023 season the Niners always thought was possible.

One season is not a large sample size and, as such, the best Kinlaw can probably hope of on the open market is a 'prove-it' deal. A to Z Sports projected him to receive a one-year deal worth $5.25 million. Though the Niners declined his option, they have never made any secret about their faith in Kinlaw and, as such, the best place for him to sign is probably where he is right now.

Though it's unknown when Armstead will return, his injury is one that potentially puts Kinlaw in a position to earn more playing time early next season. If he can make the most of that and continue to excel late into 2024, the odds of Kinlaw cashing in next offseason will be greatly increased. The 49ers need the defensive line depth while Kinlaw needs the right opportunity where he can provide more evidence of what he can do when healthy. 

The right opportunity is most likely to come with the team with whom he has spent his entire career. Kinlaw must prove he can stay healthy and perform at a high standard for a second year, and it will be substantially easier for him to do that with a team he knows inside out. A reunion is a sensible move for both parties.