A pessimist's guide to the 2024 Atlanta Falcons

Expectations haven't been this high for the Falcons since their run to Super Bowl LI.

With a fresh start at head coach and quarterback, Atlanta (-120) is the favorite to win the NFC South, per Action Network. So, it should be in good shape, right? 

After all, when have the Falcons ever lost something they should have won? Actually, come to think of it, this is the perfect time for the franchise to live down to its ignominious reputation.

We previously viewed why fans should be optimistic in 2024, but here are three reasons to believe this year will be the same as the six non-playoff seasons that preceded it.

Mediocre pass-rush

Since the start of the 2022 season, only two teams have fewer sacks (Panthers, Bears) than the Falcons (63). So, what did Atlanta do to fix its moribund pass-rush this offseason? In the words of Edwin Starr, "Absolutely nothing."

The Falcons might be in even worse shape entering 2024 than they were this time last season. They lost their two most impactful pass-rushers, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, in free agency while adding only one edge in the draft, former Washington Huskie Bralen Trice, with the 10th pick of the third round. Per data from Pro Football Focus, among the 104 defensive linemen to play at least 600 snaps in 2023, he had the sixth-highest missed-tackle rate (24.2) in the country.

Kirk Cousins misses the postseason more often than he makes it

Atlanta's big free-agent addition is certainly an upgrade over his predecessors, but anyone who thinks Cousins makes the Falcons an automatic playoff team is sorely mistaken. Are we supposed to believe a quarterback who couldn't perennially make the playoffs with the best wide receiver in football, Justin Jefferson, will suddenly become a consistent winner after tearing his Achilles last season?

Forgive us for being skeptical.

In his eight seasons with at least 15 starts (2015-22), Cousins has only made the playoffs three times (2015, 2019, 2022). He has a reputation for shrinking on the big stage, and the Falcons begin the season with three of their first five games in primetime against 2023 playoff teams. If Atlanta gets off to an ugly start, how long until fans clamor for rookie Michael Penix Jr. to take over at quarterback?

Concerning depth at cornerback behind A.J. Terrell

Terrell might be a one-man show at corner. Second-year pro Clark Phillips III and 2018 Vikings first-round pick Mike Hughes received inconsistent playing time last season and are listed directly behind Terrell on Atlanta's unofficial depth chart. 

Hughes was primarily a backup last season and only played 120 snaps from Weeks 1-14, per PFF. Phillips didn't make his debut until Week 10 and was exposed by Saints quarterback Derek Carr in the regular season finale, allowing four receptions for 67 yards and two touchdowns on five targets in a blowout 48-17 loss.