A pessimist's guide to the 2024 New Orleans Saints

The Saints missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season last year. Here are three reasons why they'll make it four straight in 2024. 

1. Restructured offensive line isn't any better

A weak link for the past few seasons, the Saints offensive line underwent its biggest change in years this offseason. But just because the unit looks different doesn't mean it will be different on the field.

Doug Marrone, the offensive line coach from 2022-23, was fired following the season, and first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought in longtime offensive line coach John Benton to run the unit. 

Last season, the Saints offensive line ranked 28th in ESPN's pass-block win rate and 15th in run-block win rate. New Orleans averaged 3.6 yards per rush attempt, 31st in the league.

The team clearly needed to change things on the front line, but the unit could experience growing pains as it learns a different system. Also, it could take Kubiak and Benton more than one offseason to acquire the type of linemen needed to adequately run their zone-blocking scheme.

Tackle Ryan Ramczyk, New Orleans' best offensive lineman, has an uncertain future with a knee injury keeping him away from football activities, while veteran former first-round pick Andrus Peat departed for the Raiders. 

2022 first-round tackle Trevor Penning was benched early in 2023 and moved to the right side during offseason workouts. Rookie tackle Taliese Fuaga, the team's first-round pick in April's NFL Draft, received snaps at left tackle. If one or both struggle, it will be another long season in New Orleans. That's a lot of pressure on two unproven players.

2. Pass-rush offers limited rewards

New Orleans' problems in the trenches aren't limited to the offense. The defensive line was also underwhelming last season. The Saints ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed, their second consecutive finish outside the top 20 after four consecutive seasons with a top-five rush defense. They also ranked 29th in sacks (34) and had the league's fifth-lowest pressure rate (18.7 percent).

Edge-rushers Payton Turner and Isaiah Foskey have shown little progress during their careers, while Cam Jordan, who turns 35 in July, is at the tail end of his career. New Orleans likely needs former Commanders and 49ers edge Chase Young, who they signed this offseason, to have a monster year for the team to see a meaningful change in its pressure stats in 2024. However, with Young's health (neck) already a concern, the Saints aren't off to a promising start in that regard.

3. Dennis Allen isn't head-coach material

Among the league's 32 NFL head coaches, Allen is the only one with at least four years of experience and no playoff appearances. His .343 career win percentage is the third-worst among 2024 coaches with prior experience, ahead of only Bears head coach Matt Eberflus (.294) and Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon (.235).

No one disputes Allen's bona fides as a defensive coach, but his expertise in that post has yet to translate to his role as head coach. He has a losing track record, and the Saints will circle the drain for as long as he's in charge.