A pessimist's guide to the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defied expectations in 2023, winning their third consecutive NFC South title and first without Tom Brady since Jeff Garcia was their starting quarterback.

The Buccaneers aren't used to prosperity, and here are three reasons why their bubble will burst in 2024.

1. One-hit wonder?

It's easy to forget, but there's a reason why Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn't latch onto a starting job in his first two NFL homes when the role was his to lose and only received a flier from the Tampa Bay front office during the 2023 offseason.

Mayfield struggled near the end of his time with the Browns and his entire six-game stint with the Panthers. At this point last year, the idea that Mayfield was worth a three-year, $100 million contract — which he signed in March — would have been preposterous. 

But the No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft had his best season as a pro in 2023, posting career highs in completion percentage (64.3), yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28). 

What happens if Mayfield's horse-drawn carriage turns back into a pumpkin? 

Tampa Bay isn't set up to succeed if Mayfield falls short, with John Wolford, Kyle Trask and undrafted 2024 free agent Zack Annexstad the other quarterbacks on its roster.

2. Loss of former offensive coordinator Dave Canales

Quarterback whisperer Dave Canales is gone, leaving Tampa after one season to become head coach for the division-rival Panthers. Over the past two seasons, Mayfield and Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith have netted big paydays after working along Canales, and how his departure affects the Bucs offense is worth monitoring. 

The team hired 2023 Kentucky offensive coordinator and former Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen (2022) to replace Canales. Coen is familiar with Mayfield from his brief run in Los Angeles, which included a 98-yard winning drive against the Raiders and a 51-14 win over the hapless Broncos. 

Still, the Rams finished last in total offense in Coen's lone season as offensive coordinator. While injuries contributed mightily to that team's struggles, they weren't particularly effective when quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp were healthy, either. Los Angeles averaged 16.4 points in the eight games Stafford and Kupp were both active.

3. No rushing offense

The Bucs haven't had a respectable rushing attack for nearly a decade. The last time they had a top-10 rush offense was in 2015, and they've ranked last in each of the past two seasons. At a certain point, that sort of ineptitude has to catch up with them, right?

Tampa Bay needs a big season from rookie first-round pick Graham Barton, a center out of Duke, and a major second-year leap from 2023 second-rounder Cody Mauch, who was graded as one of the league's worst guards by Pro Football Focus as a rookie, ranking 74th out of 79 qualifying guards.

The team also lacks top-end talent at running back. ESPN's Mike Clays places the Bucs' RB unit 22nd as part of his 2024 NFL Projection Guide.