Aaron Glenn flashes Campbell-esque game management traits

New York Jets fans have spent years chastising the game management skills (or lack thereof) displayed by their favorite team’s head coaches. From Todd Bowles to Robert Saleh, Jets fans frequently watched New York’s coaches botch the management of critical situations.

Oftentimes, the poor management came down to over-conservatism and an ignorance of analytics. However, the Jets’ new head coach, Aaron Glenn, hails from a Detroit Lions regime that has valued aggression and analytics-influenced game management more than any other organization.

A few days before the Jets’ season opener against Pittsburgh, Glenn hinted at what his fourth-down approach would look like on gameday, suggesting that he is ready to be aggressive and value the insight of analytical models.

“Early in my thought process, I was to a point to where, ‘Man, let’s punt and go play defense.’ But now, when you just look at it, and you look at the analytics behind it, it tells you that there’s a really good chance you can make that,” Glenn said. “So, mentally, I am somewhat aggressive, but I’m also calculated. So, it depends on who we’re going against, it depends on the situation in the game.

“But I know this, I’m going to be ready to make decisions. I’m going to make it fast, and whatever that decision is going to be, it’s going to be best for our team.”

Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh provided our first glimpse of how Glenn operates as a game manager. It was only one game, but so far, Glenn is displaying shades of his old head coach in Detroit, Dan Campbell. For a Jets franchise that has been dragged down by overly safe coaching, it is a welcome change of pace and a promising sign for the future.

Even if some of these calls did not immediately yield the desired results, Glenn displayed a prudent decision-making process that maximized the Jets’ odds of success. If he continues coaching this way going forward, he will give New York an advantage over the more conservative coaches in the league.

Let’s unpack some of Glenn’s critical decisions in his first game as an NFL head coach.

Smart two-point attempt

After the Jets scored a touchdown with 0:31 left in the first quarter to take a 9-7 lead, Nick Folk missed the extra point.

However, an illegal formation penalty from Pittsburgh canceled out the miss. It left Glenn with a choice: Let Folk retry the one-point attempt from freebie distance, or go for two from the one-yard line.

Following in Campbell’s footsteps, Glenn took the latter.

The attempt failed, as Braelon Allen was stuffed short of the line. That does not change the fact that Glenn made the right decision to maximize his team’s chances of scoring as many points as possible.

Over the last five seasons (2020 to 2024), two-point attempts from the one-yard line had a 50.0% success rate around the NFL. Based on that, it yields an expectation of precisely 1.00 point per attempt.

If Folk retried his extra point attempt, the five-yard illegal formation penalty would have made it a 28-yard kick; those have been converted at a 98.4% rate over the last five seasons, which means it yields 0.98 expected points.

It’s a marginal difference, but the advantage goes to trying the two-pointer.

While the difference is too small to claim that going for two is definitely the better call in every situation, the main takeaway is that the two numbers are close enough to make this a coin-toss call. It’s up to the coach to use the context of the situation to decide which decision is better in that specific moment.

Glenn made the right call by opting for the two-point attempt.

The Jets’ run game had been plowing Pittsburgh with ease up to that point of the game (which continued throughout the afternoon). Before Allen’s two-point attempt, the Jets had gained at least one yard on 10 of their 11 rush attempts. That type of momentum makes it a no-brainer to go for two.

To boot, two-point attempts from the one-yard line are significantly more effective when teams run the ball. It is foolish that any team still attempts to pass in that situation.

From 2020 to 2024, teams converted 4-of-11 (36.4%) two-point attempts from the one-yard line when passing, and 19-of-35 (54.3%) when rushing. At a 54.3% conversion rate, the expected yield is 1.08 points, which is enough to make it a significant difference over the one-point attempt.

With the Jets’ run game on fire, going for two from the one-yard line was a smart call by Glenn. Unfortunately, New York did not execute, but it was still the right way to go.

Missing this attempt forced the Jets to try and compensate for it later in the game with another two-point attempt, which they also failed on. That one was an easy call by Glenn, as the Jets (leading 32-31) were trying to go up by three points instead of two with only a few minutes remaining.

They made the ill-advised decision to pass on the play, though, which is more of a Tanner Engstrand decision. Given the historical conversion rates, you’d like to see the Jets cut those out and just stick with a no-nonsense run game on future two-point attempts.

When judging coaches’ game management, it is important to separate the decision from the ensuing execution. New York failed to execute on its two-point attempts, but the thought process behind Glenn’s first two-point attempt was sound. Jets fans should be excited to have a coach who understands how to make decisions that optimize his team’s odds of winning.

Buying an extra possession

With 2:54 left in the first half, New York kicked the ball back to Pittsburgh after taking a 19-10 lead on a Nick Folk field goal. The Jets had all three of their timeouts remaining, while Pittsburgh had two.

After a Folk touchback and a 30-yard chunk on second down, the Steelers were quickly at the Jets’ 35-yard line with 2:14 to go. They ran for seven yards on their last play before the two-minute warning, setting up second-and-3 at the Jets’ 28.

Pittsburgh followed the two-minute warning with a one-yard run. The Steelers let the clock run down to 1:18 and converted the third-and-2 with a three-yard pass.

With 1:12 remaining and Pittsburgh facing first-and-10 at the Jets’ 24, Glenn called a timeout.

Jets fans were surprised to see New York call a timeout in this situation. That’s only because they’re not accustomed to seeing their coach make forward-thinking decisions.

New York received the game’s opening kickoff, which meant Pittsburgh would receive the opening kickoff of the second half. If the Steelers wound down the clock in the first half and topped it off with points, they would have a chance to rack up back-to-back scores on New York. Glenn got in front of this dilemma, electing to preserve time to buy New York an extra possession.

It made sense, as the risk was minimal. With Pittsburgh already at the Jets’ 24-yard line with 1:12 left and two timeouts, the Steelers were not in a time crunch by any means. They had all the time they needed to run their full offense and pursue a touchdown without pressure from the clock. Thus, by calling a timeout, the Jets weren’t really helping Pittsburgh much at all – Glenn was just thinking ahead.

Pittsburgh ran on first-and-10 for no gain, and Glenn called another timeout at 1:07.

The Steelers scored three plays later, with a Pittsburgh timeout wedged in there following a goal-line run stuff. Eventually, the Steelers kicked the ball back to the Jets, and they got the ball at their own 33 with 27 seconds and a timeout.

The Jets’ offense was unable to register any points with the extra possession, but the sheer fact that their coach had the wherewithal to create that possession in the first place is a significant positive development.

If you need an example of how valuable that can be, look no further than Sunday night’s thriller between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott pulled a similar maneuver late in the second quarter, calling three timeouts while Baltimore was driving deep into Buffalo territory with under two minutes left. After Baltimore scored a field goal, the Bills got the ball back with 25 seconds left on their own 27-yard line, and Josh Allen drove them downfield for a field goal to close the half.

Buffalo eventually won by a single point.

Glenn’s second-quarter clock management confused some Jets fans at the time, and it has ultimately become an afterthought since it did not lead to points. But he seized control of the game and played his part to create an extra possession that could have represented the difference between a win and a loss in the end.

Jets fans have to be thrilled about that.

Aggressive fourth-down call

This one is a no-brainer in today’s NFL, even for the most conservative coaches, but Glenn made the correct call to go for it on fourth-and-1 from Pittsburgh’s one-yard line with the Jets down by five and 7:06 left in the game.

Fields high-stepped into the end zone on a well-designed bootleg from Engstrand, and the Jets took the lead.

There’s one wart to address

Glenn was not perfect in his coaching debut. The Jets burned a couple of wasted timeouts in the second half.

With 9:01 left in the fourth quarter, Fields ran for four yards to convert a third-and-1, setting the Jets up at the Steelers’ 10-yard line. However, the officials engaged in a long conversation after the play, which resulted in a Pittsburgh penalty to set the Jets up with first-and-goal from the five.

Despite getting an extended period of time to prepare for the next play, the Jets wasted a timeout with nine seconds left on the play clock to clean up their operation. To their credit, they scored two plays later, but you would like to see the offense be more prepared when given extra time to set itself up.

Making matters worse, the Jets called their second timeout ahead of the two-point attempt that followed the touchdown.

Because of the two wasted timeouts, the Jets only had one timeout left when they got the ball back with 56 seconds left in the game and a two-point deficit. The lack of timeouts forced New York to abandon the run game that had carried them throughout the day. Four Fields dropbacks later, the game was over. With even one more timeout, the run game would still have been available, and the Jets’ final drive may have gone differently.

You can be a little looser with your timeout usage in the first half, but in the second half, it is imperative to ensure that you get to the end of the fourth quarter with all three of those timeouts in your pocket. Going forward, Glenn and the Jets’ offense must clean up their operation to avoid wasting timeouts that could buy them extra plays in a game-winning situation.

Overall promising debut

Overall, Glenn displayed promising trends as a game manager. Unfortunately, the Jets did not capitalize on some of his decisions with the necessary execution, but Glenn’s decision-making process was optimal.

If Glenn continues building on what he displayed in the season opener, he could be the first Jets head coach in years who makes decisions that maximize his team’s chances of winning. Glenn consistently played the odds and the clock to the best of his ability.

Cleaning up the operation to avoid wasted timeouts is a point of emphasis.

But it already appears quite clear that the Jets’ rookie head coach was paying close attention to Dan Campbell in Detroit – and that he plans on applying those lessons in New (Jersey) York.