AFC Championship bets: Bengals player props

We have what should be two great games this weekend in the NFL, and the first is Bengals-Chiefs, a rematch from Week 17, which Cincinnati won 34-31 at home.

We broke down this game from a spread perspective, picking a winner and betting angle, so check that out if you're looking for more perspective on the AFC Championship Game.

This game brings with it two explosive passing offenses and defenses that shouldn't offer much resistance. With that in mind, there are prop spots to consider. We have a few for each team, and we'll start with focusing on Cincinnati.

Stay tuned for Kansas City prop options.

Cincinnati Bengals Props

The Bengals side offers us some intriguing value, and I'll be focusing on the passing game here. The Chiefs see a lot of passes against them, a mixture of a vulnerable secondary and an offense that puts up points in a hurry and forces opposing teams to play catch up.

As I mentioned in my AFC Championship ATS preview, linked above, I see the Chiefs winning this, and I do think there is a very real possibility it's not close.

Even if it is close, it will be because Joe Burrow is moving the ball with his receivers, so it's there we start with our prop bets.

Joe Burrow long completion over 39.5 yards (-108 FanDuel)

We bet Joe Burrow's passing yards over last week to success, and the reasoning to target his long completion here is the same: this team has great receivers and I can't decide who to bet on.

When that happens, I turn to the quarterback, and I like Burrow to complete a long pass in this game, especially after watching Josh Allen pick apart this defense last week.

Beyond that recency bias, there's plenty that supports this pick.

Burrow has a 50-yard completion in four of the last five games, including a 72 yarder against Kansas City, one of many huge chunk plays the Bengals passing game produced in that game.

Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most 40 yard passes this season, at 13, so they've shown a proclivity for getting beat deep.

On the season, Burrow has covered this prop at a 61% rate, a number that goes up to 75% on the road.