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AFC Championship bets: Two player props for Chiefs-Ravens
We'll have plenty of betting looks for the two NFL playoff games all week long, but prop lines have been open since the start of the week, and we'd like to secure some of these lines before they're gone. We start first with Kansas City vs. Baltimore and load up a player on both ends for a solid afternoon.
Lamar Jackson over 64.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)
We're taking it on the chin here a tad, as Lamar Jackson's rushing yardage opened at 58.5. Early bird gets the worm, and that's a bummer, but not enough to keep me off this read.
On the season, the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per rush, the seventh-highest mark in the league, and through two playoff games, Kansas City has allowed 129 rushing yards per game. A big chunk of that was Josh Allen last week, who took 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
We've got another mobile QB worth an investment in Lamar Jackson, who showed last week he won't be shy in rushing the football in big moments. Jackson finished with two rushing touchdowns in the Divisional Round and 100 yards.
Jackson has a 10.5 rush attempts line that favors the over. Over the past 21 games in which the Ravens QB has taken 10+ carries, he's averaging 76.8 rush yards/game, going over this line 13 times. He has 70+ yards in three of his last five, and has gone for 100+ in three of his last four playoff games. He also finished with 107 last time he saw Kansas City and is over this line in three of four career meetings.
This is the biggest game of Jackson's career, he's going to run the football, both by design and when forced to scramble.
Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)
One of the few defensive vulnerabilities on the Baltimore end has been their tendency to allow receptions from opposing running backs. On the year, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-most catches to RBs, and last week, Devin Singletary caught five balls for 48 yards.
Pacheco has been running hard for Kansas City, but he's been more hit-or-miss in the receiving game. He still has gotten his fair share of targets, seeing 4+ in seven of his last 11 games.
Despite two straight games with just one catch, Pacheco has a 3.5 receptions line, juiced to the under. If for a moment we project Pacheco to catch 3+ balls, this receiving yardage line suddenly looks much more appealing.
Pacheco has 3+ receptions in nine games this year, averaging 24.1 receiving yards/game and going over this line six times. Five of those games saw Pacheco rattle off 30+ yards through the air, so here we are just asking for a measly 16 receiving yards. I don't hate his rushing yards prop either or his total yardage line, but this is the clearest path for me.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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