AFC East Division prediction and odds: It's Josh Allen's division

As we wait for training camp to begin in the NFL, we're taking a look around the league the next two weeks to see how divisional odds shake out, along with the futures bets we like the most.

[Previous Editions: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West] 

With the NFC complete, it's time now for the AFC, a conference packed with quality teams and great quarterbacks. While not quite the point of these futures articles, it's worth noting that the AFC is going to be a battle all year. If you're loading up MVP or Super Bowl futures, be wary of how much you invest on this side of the NFL.

We'll begin our divisional look with the AFC East.

To Win the AFC East Betting Odds

1. Buffalo Bills (-185 FD)
2. Miami Dolphins (+450 FD)
3. New England Patriots (+500 DK)
4. New York Jets (+2200 DK)

The AFC East has the heaviest favorite of the four divisions here, with Buffalo expected to win a third straight division crown. It helps when you have the MVP favorite on your side and a team building up postseason experience. The Bills went to the AFC Championship in 2020 and were involved in arguably one of the best playoff games of all-time this past year, falling in heartbreaking fashion to the Chiefs in overtime.

Miami has the second-best odds to win the division after some offseason moves to bolster the offense. The Dolphins went 9-8 in 2021 and finished 4-2 in the division. This is likely a make-or-break year for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa heading into his third NFL season.

The Patriots will always be in the mix as long as Bill Belichick is in town, and Mac Jones as a rookie helped lead New England to a playoff appearance at 10-7.

Then there's the Jets, who I actually do like to improve on their 2021 season. That is admittedly a low bar, they finished 4-13 and had the fourth pick in the draft. Still, I've liked some of the moves this team has made and think New York is getting closer to being a respectable team, despite the odds to win the division saying otherwise.

New York Jets: What to expect

Are we betting the Jets to win the AFC East? Of course not. That won't stop me from pointing out some positives from this New York team.

The Jets quietly have formed a very respectable offensive line, and have intriguing offensive pieces led by rookies Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and C.J. Uzomah round out what I find to be a very solid group. As it typically does, the onus of success falls on the quarterback, and whether or not Zach Wilson is a good QB very much remains to be seen.

He did not have a strong rookie season, so seeing an improved step from the BYU product would go a long way to projecting Jets success in 2023 and beyond.

Ahmad Gardner, the shutdown corner selected fourth overall in this past draft, figures to be a massive jolt to the defensive side of the football. Jets fans, if you're reading this, I think this team can do something this season. The market has the Jets over/under of wins set at 5.5, heavily juiced. I do think they go over that total and give us some exciting games from the offense.

New England Patriots: What to expect

What I expect out of New England is a step backwards after their 10-7 season in 2021. That take is rooted far more in how strong I find the AFC than any necessarily negative opinion of the Patriots.

Sure, I don't think Mac Jones will ever be an upper echelon type quarterback, but I think he's good enough to keep you in the mix. He feels like an Andy Dalton type guy in the vein of a quarterback who won't make egregious mistakes but won't be able to carry a team on his back.

I foresee mediocrity for this era of New England football. Again, this is because Josh Allen is only just beginning his prime and you have teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Bengals, Broncos set to compete for an AFC berth in the Super Bowl. Besides Russell Wilson, the quarterbacks of these teams are young and only getting better. Jones is not going to lift New England above these teams anytime soon.

I'm not betting on the Pats to take down the Bills for the division, it would take an injury that we can't reasonably project for that to grow into a reality. I'm staying away.

Miami Dolphins: What to expect

The Tyreek Hill trade gives this Miami team a superstar at WR that will hopefully catapult Tua Tagovailoa in his third season.

The Dolphins have solid pieces here beyond Hill in Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki and Cedric Wilson. One thing to give you some confidence in Miami is what I'd consider a very strong backup QB in Teddy Bridgewater. I mention this only to say that were Tagovailoa to get hurt, the drop off to his replacement may not be as steep as it would be for the Patriots or Bills.

The Dolphins defense had its moments last season and should be a fine unit in 2022. I just don't buy that Tagovailoa is the guy. Just as I feel about Mac Jones I feel about Tua. I can't bet a team to win their division when there's so little faith in their QB to win them a game. If the Dolphins had a stronger offensive line and run game, I'd say that would help offset these concerns. But they don't, so my concerns remain.

Buffalo Bills: What to expect

This is the fifth division we've broke down in this series, and it often feels like by the time we get to the betting favorite, there's nothing that needs to be said. Buffalo is the favorite for a reason, they are one of the top teams in the NFL.

Josh Allen is a superstar. This defense is stronger than many give them credit for, the 13-second blown lead against Kansas City in the Divisional Round notwithstanding.

The Bills lost Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley this offseason, but I see Gabriel Davis as ready to take on that WR2 role alongside Stefon Diggs, and Jamison Crowder is a crafty slot receiver that should find his spots for Buffalo.

I am a massive Allen fan, one of the players I am sure to bet on to win MVP. I wish we could bet on Buffalo to win the AFC East, but it's so hard to do so at -185. There's no value in that.

Final betting word for the AFC East

This was a look at divisional odds, but I'm left with two main takeaways: I want to bet the Jets win totals over and I want a piece of Josh Allen winning MVP.

This doesn't solve the prompt at hand as it relates to betting a winner of this division, but then I remembered: this is my series and my rules. No bet for me here, but actionable takeaways I'll be applying to future offseason prep articles.