AFC East Primer: MVP Josh Allen, Bills ride again

Buffalo rolls into the 2025 season as the continued standard-bearer in the AFC East.

Last season, the Bills were perfect at home (8-0) and won 13 games in the regular season before another painful dismissal from the playoffs at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Quarterback Josh Allen won the MVP award in a tight race with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, hushing questions about the need for a legitimate No. 1 receiver.

Miami (8-9 in 2024) was the runner up in a division race that didn't make it to December. The Dolphins failed to replicate the dynamic offense of 2023 and began taking on water, barely floating through a month without Tua Tagovailoa following a three-INT game -- and 31-10 home loss -- against the Bills in Week 2.

Changes in the division since last season ended are noteworthy.

Former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel was hired as head coach in New England, ending a one-year trial without Bill Belichick that proved a fantastic flop. Jerod Mayo, another former linebacker under Belichick, had separate losing streaks of six games and went 4-13.

The disciplined, defensive-minded Vrabel pushed for heavy investments along the offensive line to give 2024 No. 3 pick Drake Maye a fighting chance.

And the Jets have a third head coach in less than a year, bringing back one of their former defensive players, Aaron Glenn, most recently the defensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions -- to call the shots for the first time.

Glenn dismissed Aaron Rodgers and the Jets signed former Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields as their QB1.

Our look at the AFC East entering the 2025 season with predicted record and order of finish:

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5 predicted 2025 record)

Schedule

W1 Sun Sep 7 - vs Ravens

W2 Sun Sep 14 - at Jets

W3 Thu Sep 18 - vs Dolphins

W4 Sun Sep 28 - vs Saints

W5 Sun Oct 5 - vs Patriots

W6 Mon Oct 13 - at Falcons

W7 BYE

W8 Sun Oct 26 - at Panthers

W9 Sun Nov 9 - vs Chiefs

W10 Sun Nov 9 - at Dolphins

W11 Sun Nov 16 - vs Bucs

W12 Thu Nov 20 - at Texans

W13 Sun Nov 30 - at Steelers

W14 Sun Dec 7 - vs Bengals

W15 Sun Dec 14 - at Patriots

W16 Sun Dec 21 - at Browns

W17 Sun Dec 28 - vs Eagles

W18 TBD - vs Jets

Outlook: With RB James Cook signed to an extension, the Bills have the makings of an explosive offense yet again. They could very well need all the points they can get. Buffalo's demise in the postseason was the inability to come up with critical stops. Credit Allen for the playoff win over Jackson and the Ravens, but check the video for what could have easily been a Ravens' celebration that chilly January day if only Baltimore's skill players made expected plays.

Take a breakout ... WR Keon Coleman might not emerge as the top target in Buffalo's offense, but he's destined to become the big-play machine Allen covets when safeties crowd the line to contend with Cook and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Coleman's size, bounce and above-the-rim ability in traffic equate to splash plays dead ahead.

Roster weak spot: Nevermind the No. 1 wideout label, the Bills are still absent a genuine dog at safety and overall depth in the secondary is likely to again keep head coach Sean McDermott up at night.

Circle the date: It is Super Bowl or bust for the Bills. Their Dec. 28 collision with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles could have some bearing on the AFC order of finish and home-field advantage.

2. Miami Dolphins (9-8 predicted record)

Schedule

W1 Sun Sep 7 - at Colts

W2 Sun Sep 14 - vs Patriots

W3 Thu Sep 18 - at Bills

W4 Mon Sep 29 - vs Jets

W5 Sun Oct 5 - at Panthers

W6 Sun Oct 12 - vs Chargers

W7 Sun Oct 19 - at Browns

W8 Sun Oct 26 - at Falcons

W9 Thu Oct 30 - vs Ravens

W10 Sun Nov 9 - vs Bills

W11 Sun Nov 16 - vs Commanders (Madrid)

W12 BYE

W13 Sun Nov 30 - vs Saints

W14 Sun Dec 7 - at Jets

W15 Mon Dec 15 - at Steelers

W16 Sun Dec 21 - vs Bengals

W17 Sun Dec 28 - vs Buccaneers

W18 TBD - at Patriots

Cold road ahead: Ending the season in January in the Boston area wouldn't be the ideal scenario for a franchise with historical brutal results in sweater weather. South Floridians need no reminder about the de facto division title game loss at home to Buffalo in Week 18 of the 2023 season that pushed Miami from a home game to a wild-card visit to subarctic Kansas City. They lost 26-7.

The Dolphins have lost 11 games in a row with a kickoff temperature 40 degrees or below with an average margin of defeat more than 17 points.

Yet again the make-or-break part of the season for the Dolphins has a slippery stretch of potential cold-weather games at the Jets (Dec. 7) and at Pittsburgh (Dec. 15). Fortunately for the Dolphins, they visit Buffalo in Week 3 before the tundra is frozen.

Achane the Machine: RB De'Von Achane could be used in an every-down role in Miami, which means massive production -- if he stays healthy. Despite a preseason calf injury, he is expected to play in Week 1. As for big-picture expectations, Achane might not approach prime Christian McCaffrey levels, but the 49ers former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel does know how to use a home-run threat at the position. Last season, Achane had 78 receptions for 592 yards and six touchdowns, and his rushing totals were 203-907-6.

Roster weak spot: Did the Dolphins attempt to settle the OL issues that haunted McDaniel's offense last season? They did. But with Terron Armstead retiring, there's uncertainty and limited cohesion for the front five. A lot hinges on the left side of tackle Patrick Paul (three career starts) and rookie second-round guard Jonah Savaiinaea. Paul, a second-rounder in 2024, is a massive man (6-foot-5, 326 pounds) for whom Miami has large expectations.

3. New England Patriots (7-10)

Schedule

W1 Sun Sep 7 - vs Raiders

W2 Sun Sep 14 - at Dolphins

W3 Sun Sep 21 - vs Steelers

W4 Sun Sep 28 - vs Panthers

W5 Sun Oct 5 - at Bills

W6 Sun Oct 12 - at Saints

W7 Sun Oct 19 - at Titans

W8 Sun Oct 26 - vs Browns

W9 Sun Nov 2 - vs Falcons

W10 Sun Nov 9 - vs Buccaneers

W11 Thu Nov 13 - vs Jets

W12 Sun Nov 23 - at Bengals

W13 Mon Dec 1 - vs Giants

W14 BYE

W15 Sun Dec 14 - vs Bills

W16 Sun Dec 21 - at Ravens

W17 Sun Dec 28 - at Jets

W18 TBD - vs Dolphins

Division by subtraction: Not since 2019 have the Patriots gone better than .500 in a division New England owned with a streak of 11 consecutive AFC East crowns from 2009-19. Head coach Mike Vrabel wants to reestablish an edge in the East to separate the Patriots from the pack. New England's first division game comes Sept. 14 at Miami, where the Patriots are 0-5 since 2020.

On the rise: Vrabel brought in multiple familiar faces to boost the defense, but his prized pupil could be edge rusher Keion White, a second-round draft pick in 2023. Overlooked nationally because New England has been easily dismissed as a bottom-five team back-to-back seasons, White already has top-of-the-scouting-report status in the AFC. The 26-year-old had 5.0 sacks last season but double digits is realistic in his third NFL season.

Roster weak spot: Worry might not be the right word and Vrabel might never admit it, but the offensive line remains a concern. Drafting left tackle Will Campbell was a major upgrade. We can't say the same about the other four spots on the line. Right tackle Morgan Moses has been solid for years and credit the 34-year-old for steady play with the Jets last season, but he's no longer a pillar. For context, he played his first NFL game a few days after Maye's 12th birthday in 2014.

4. New York Jets (6-11)

Schedule

W1 Sun Sep 7 - vs Steelers

W2 Sun Sep 14 - vs Bills

W3 Sun Sep 21 - at Buccaneers

W4 Mon Sep 29 - at Dolphins

W5 Sun Oct 5 - vs Cowboys

W6 Sun Oct 12 - vs Broncos (London)

W7 Sun Oct 19 - vs Panthers

W8 Sun Oct 26 - at Bengals

W9 - BYE

W10 Sun Nov 9 - vs Browns

W11 Thu Nov 13 - at Patriots

W12 Sun Nov 23 - at Ravens

W13 Sun Nov 30 - vs Falcons

W14 Sun Dec 7 - vs Dolphins

W15 Sun Dec 14 - at Jaguars

W16 Sun Dec 21 - at Saints

W17 Sun Dec 28 - vs Patriots

W18 TBD - at Bills

Ready or not: The Jets are glad to go into the season with a franchise-familiar game plan of trusting their championship-caliber defense to keep them in games. Aaron Glenn was aggressive as a cornerback in this uniform and as a defensive coordinator with the Lions. The potential pratfall based on early returns could be the inability of the offense to hit the accelerator. The passing game isn't equipped to trade blows with the teams on the early schedule -- Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami and Dallas are all capable of 30-point explosions. How does Glenn counter?

Pick your poison: Circle the primary target from the front seven of the Jets ... not many are picking right end Jermaine Johnson. That's soon to be a problem for offensive linemen. Johnson is returning from torn Achilles on the other side of the new 4-3 front the Jets will deploy from outside linebacker Will McDonald IV. His wingspan eliminates the option of quick blocks from offensive linemen fearing defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and if he recovers the first-step explosiveness post-op, Johnson might be unstoppable.

Roster weak spot: We are willing to apologize if the Jets make the trio of interior offensive line positions into a strength this season. Preseason and training camp didn't inspire any level of confidence with the blitz-happy Steelers up as a stern live experiment in Week 1.