AFC, NFC title games: Best Conference Championship Teaser

It's the games — AFC and NFC Conference Championship — before the big one. Win, and you're in the Super Bowl. Lose, and you get to watch the Super Bowl in two weeks from home. And boy, oh boy, should these two games be entertaining. Cincinnati and Kansas City meet in the AFC title game for second consecutive season while the two top seeds out of the NFC — Philadelphia and San Francisco — duke it out in the NFC title game. 

But before we get started with our top teaser for the week, let's recap last week's win. It was arguably our most comfortable win of the year, and our first of the postseason. The Bengals were never in doubt on losing last week against Buffalo, let alone covering an 11.5-point spread, while Kansas City's biggest scare wasn't whether or not they were going to win by a field goal, it was whether or not Patrick Mahomes' season was over after suffering a high ankle sprain against Jacksonville. 

And since we're already talking about Kansas City and Cincinnati, let's kick off our teaser with our best play for Sunday's AFC title game. Joe Burrow is a perfect 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, and even though some are referring to Arrowhead Stadium as "Burrowhead" Stadium, we are not willing to those extremes quite yet. However, we do like the Bengals (+6) via the teaser against the Chiefs. 

Mahomes has yet to beat Burrow head-to-head, and he was far much healthier in those games than he is now. So, what exactly makes the Chiefs' chances of winning on Sunday all that much greater than the previous three times? The answer: they're not. We are by no means saying the Bengals are a lock to win on Sunday, but we'd be surprised if they lose by more than six. 

Cincinnati beat KC by a field goal twice last year — once in the regular season and then again in the postseason — and don't be surprised if Sunday's game comes down to another late field goal. If Mahomes didn't get hurt last week, we'd be a little more reluctant to take the Bengals (+6), but again, should we be? 

Cincinnati has had KC's number, and the Bengals have quietly won 10 straight games and absolutely dominated Buffalo last week on the road. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to do their thing on offense, but don't sleep on the Cincy defense. The Bengals held the high-powered Bills offense to 10 points on Sunday and haven't allowed more than 18 points in a game for four straight weeks. Regardless of who wins the AFC title, don't expect it to be by more than six.