2018 NFL division preview: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

2017 record: 9-7 (second in AFC North)

Key additions: WR John Brown, WR Michael Crabtree, QB Robert Griffin III, WR Willie Snead

Notable losses: OL Luke Bowanko, WR Michael Campanaro, T Austin Howard, C Ryan Jensen, WR Jeremy Maclin, WR Mike Wallace, TE Benjamin Watson, S Lardarius Webb, RB Terrance West, RB Danny Woodhead

Top draft picks: TE Hayden Hurst, QB Lamar Jackson, T Orlando Brown, TE Mark Andrews

2018 outlook: Six John Harbaugh-era Ravens teams have made the playoffs, but just one (2014) came within the past five years. With the draft of the 2016 Heisman winner, the patient franchise finally signaled Joe Flacco’s recent work (23rd in Total QBR in 2017,19th in 2016) was insufficient. However, the preseason's predictably revealed Jackson is a long-term project. That puts the 2018 Ravens in a tough spot. 

Baltimore revamped its receiving corps by adding Crabtree and two former supporting-casters coming off injuries. Alex Collins should be even better now that stalwart guard Marshal Yanda is back. Flacco doesn’t appear in imminent danger of losing his job, but the 33-year-old veteran will be if he can’t re-route his career this season.

Baltimore’s defense helped place a flawed 2017 roster on the precipice of the playoffs. (Well, that and a weak AFC enabled such status.) The conference doesn’t appear much stronger this year, and wild-card spots probably won’t require 11-win seasons. 

The Ravens did not use free agency to bolster their defense, and the team didn't address that unit until the draft’s third day. C.J. Mosley is playing for a monster contract, and Terrell Suggs (11 sacks in 2017) is still going at 35. Jimmy Smith’s suspension hurts a secondary that last season led the league with 22 interceptions, but Brandon Carr is an overqualified fill-in. A top-flight safety tandem of Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson provides excellent insurance. Justin Tucker, too. He’s on an all-time pace and buoys an offensively limited team.

Are they better or worse than last season? Perhaps neither. Many Ravens position groups resemble their 2017 versions, and the offensive line lost a quality center in Jensen.

Best-case scenario? Le’Veon Bell’s throwback workload results in an injury, and the Steelers lose their grip on the division. A slightly superior Flacco compared to previous years leads the Ravens to a division title, inserting a consistently competitive January team into the AFC field.

Worst-case scenario? Flacco’s offseason was a mirage, but Jackson still isn’t ready. The Ravens again fall short of the playoffs, putting Harbaugh’s job in jeopardy.

Record prediction: 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals

2017 record: 7-9 (third in AFC North)

Key additions: QB Matt Barkley, MLB Preston Brown, OL Bobby Hart, LT Cordy Glenn

Notable losses: C Russell Bodine, RB Jeremy Hill, S George Iloka, CB Adam Jones, QB AJ McCarron, LB Kevin Minter, RB Cedric Peerman, DT Pat Sims, OL Andre Smith, DE Chris Smith, T Eric Winston

Top draft picks: C Billy Price, S Jessie Bates, DE Sam Hubbard

2018 outlook: Over one-fourth of the NFL either signed a new starting quarterback or drafted a possible long-term successor. Every other AFC North team did. But the Bengals, who’ve slunk to the back of the NFL’s middle class, still have Andy Dalton and are now without a viable backup. After also extending Marvin Lewis, it’s safe to question this franchise's commitment. 

Cincinnati did add Glenn and Price to upgrade a leaky offensive line — one weakened by the underwhelming careers of high picks Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher — but didn't do much else this offseason. John Ross will be a legitimate part of the offense after a de facto redshirt year, but Dalton (20th and 25th in Total QBR the past two years) may need more talent around him if he’s to help the team rebound.

Cincy didn't feature a remarkable defense last season, either. It ranked 16th in scoring, 17th in DVOA and 18th in yards yielded. A defensive line propelled by the franchise’s top two all-time sackers — Carlos Dunlap (64.5) and Geno Atkins (61) — provides some promise, with Carl Lawson (8.5 sacks in 2017) and Jordan Willis providing intrigue as rookies. 

Bates’ outlook prompted the Bengals to part with Iloka, a five-year starter, and this marks Year 3 for the first-round corner trio (Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard and William Jackson III) working together. Jackson broke through in 2017. There’s plenty to like here, and as is the case with new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, a new scheme’s in place after Teryl Austin succeeded Paul Guenther. But is this enough?

Are they better or worse than last season? Glenn, Price, a slimmed-down Joe Mixon and a healthier Ross do enhance the possibilities for the Bengals. It’s hard to say they’re demonstrably better, but the roster does look more equipped to potentially threaten for a wild card.

Best-case scenario: Ross and Tyler Eifert stay healthy enough to complement A.J. Green and help Dalton rediscover his 2015 form. In an AFC without many proven contenders, the Bengals aren’t laughably off that level and could sneak in to the playoffs as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.

Worst-case scenario: Cincinnati’s commitment to its core again produces an unsatisfactory result, with Dalton staying on his present course and leaving the Bengals in their recent place in the AFC hierarchy.

Record prediction: 8-8

Cleveland Browns

2017 record: 0-16 (last in AFC North)

Key additions: CB T.J. Carrie, TE Darren Fells, CB E.J. Gaines, RT Chris Hubbard, RB Carlos Hyde, WR Jeff Janis, LB Mychal Kendricks, WR Jarvis Landry, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Damarious Randall, T Greg Robinson, DE Chris Smith, QB Drew Stanton, QB Tyrod Taylor

Notable losses: RB Isaiah Crowell, WR Corey Coleman, QB Kevin Hogan, QB Cody Kessler, QB DeShone Kizer, OL Marcus Martin, CB Jason McCourty, DT Danny Shelton, LT Joe Thomas, CB B.W. Webb

Top draft picks: QB Baker Mayfield, CB Denzel Ward, OL Austin Corbett, RB Nick Chubb, DE Chad Thomas

2018 outlook: The least successful (by record) general manager in NFL history is gone, but Hue Jackson remains after a 1-31 run while leading Sashi Brown’s scorched-earth rebuild. This set up John Dorsey with ample cap space and prime draft real estate, but the new boss shipped off plenty past-regime investments and brought in his own guys. Taylor, Landry and Hyde increase the Browns’ immediate chances to win, but this organization — evidenced by a riveting “Hard Knocks” — isn't the most functional. 

Taylor’s a middling quarterback and is auditioning for a 2019 job elsewhere, with Mayfield surely on the radar to take over this season. The Browns won’t have Thomas anchoring their offensive line any longer, but Kevin Zeitler and Joel Bitonio are nice (and expensive) pieces. Josh Gordon's issues persist, but the Browns (2-41 since October 2015) have no choice but to be patient.

Additions of Ward and Randall will aid a defense that ceded the NFL's second-most points last year. Talent resides elsewhere here — Myles Garrett, Emmanuel Ogbah, a deep linebacking corps — but Gregg Williams’ crew isn’t too different from the offense’s state at this point. Kizer’s interception issues (his 22 were as many as any team threw last season) repeatedly placed Cleveland’s defenders in bad situations, and the Browns were surprisingly a mid-tier yardage defense (14th). There’s hope but not evidence a major turnaround can take place this year.

Are they better or worse than last season? If they aren’t better, Jackson will have a convincing case as the worst head coach in NFL history.

Best-case scenario: Mayfield progresses enough that he commandeers the starting job and leads the Browns to some wins down the stretch, showing this may finally be the first-round pick who can solve this near-20-year issue.

Worst-case scenario: If it can possibly get any worse than last year, after LeBron James left Ohio again, what a cruel break for Browns fans. Mayfield showing no signs of progress would be the most damaging long-game obstacle the Browns could encounter.

Record prediction: 3-13

Pittsburgh Steelers

2017 record: 13-3 (first in AFC North)

Key additions: S Nat Berhe, LB Jon Bostic, S Morgan Burnett

Notable losses: WR Martavis Bryant, CB William Gay, RT Chris Hubbard, S Mike Mitchell, OLB Arthur Moats, LB Sean Spence

Top draft picks: S Terrell Edmunds, WR James Washington, QB Mason Rudolph

2018 outlook: Considering the talent the Steelers have possessed over the past four years, it’s strange they sit in this predicament. Le’Veon Bell’s imminent departure further applies pressure to a team that already faced plenty, thanks to some bad injury luck and general underachievement during the years when Ben Roethlisberger has been teamed with an all-time great skill-position duo. Now that Bell is on his way out and Antonio Brown is 30, this could be the Steelers’ last chance to topple the Patriots. 

A loaded offense (No. 3 in yardage and DVOA last season) returns 10 starters. The switch from Bryant to Washington at the No. 2 wide receiver spot is the major change. Roethlisberger's reportedly rejuvenated after Randy Fichtner replaced Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, but the 36-year-old quarterback has ventured down a spooky road where he’s a top-tier passer at Heinz Field and a second-rate one everywhere else. Unless that changes, Mike Tomlin’s crew will need to outflank Bill Belichick’s and secure home-field advantage.

But Big Ben and Co. have proved to be an elite force for several years, only to see their defense let them down. Ryan Shazier’s tragic injury crushed the Steelers last season. Their run defense surrendered 100-plus yards four times in the last five regular-season games, and the Jaguars gashed them in the playoffs. Keith Butler’s unit still led the NFL in sacks with 56, but even for a Steelers organization that avoids big changes at every turn, the fourth-year defensive coordinator should be considered a hot-seat occupant given this season’s stakes and his most recent group frequently needing to be bailed out in shootouts. 

Pittsburgh added Burnett and Edmunds to a weak safety corps and still has upper-echelon defensive ends Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. But the Steelers only signed Bostic to replace Shazier. That’s a risk for a team that clearly needed a key player in that role.

Are they better or worse than last season? If measured from the beginning of 2017, the Steelers are worse. Shazier’s career is likely over. However, compared to what Pittsburgh resembled against Jacksonville, this defense looks modestly improved. The Fichtner-for-Haley switch will be scrutinized, however, if Pittsburgh’s offense can’t sustain its pace.

Best-case scenario: Buoyed by healthy seasons from their superstars, the Steelers secure AFC home-field advantage and oust a vulnerable Patriots team they were probably better than last year. The Steelers’ ceiling is a Super Bowl LIII title, but that potential has proved to be painfully elusive in recent years.

Worst-case scenario: Bell, who’s seen injuries either limit him or shelve him for four playoff games, goes down, and the Steelers defense proves unfit in big spots again. It’s hard to see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs, but the unreliable juggernaut stumbling as the Ravens steal the North is in play.

Record prediction: 11-5