AFC Over/Under Win Total Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers – OVER 9.5

The Los Angeles Chargers reclamation project, spearheaded by Jim Harbaugh, is close to completion. The Chargers had a pretty good 2024, ending with 11 wins and 11th in points per play. It might not seem like all that impressive on the surface, but looking deeper into what the Chargers are unearths some pretty positive road markers.

First, their passing offense was sizably better than their rushing offense. That’s right, a Greg Roman/Jim Harbaugh rushing game was worse than their passing game. That’s a compliment to Herbert’s ability, but also a sign that the Chargers can build into their core identity even more. Adding G Mekhi Becton to the offensive line will create a legitimate three headed monster of O-Linemen with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. First round pick Omarion Hampton running behind them will give them more explosive potential as well.

What really was the catalyst for L.A. was the defense, though. They had the fifth total defensive EPA in 2024, were first in total team defense, and did it all without getting to the QB in any major way. Their defensive roster was somewhat of a rag-tag group that lacked any premier talent outside of Derwin James. DC Jesse Minter did a phenomenal job of maximizing the roster.

Going forward, it’s believable the Chargers will be one of the primary Super Bowl contenders once they are fully made in Harbaugh’s image. Short-term, 2025 will likely much resemble 2024, just with more balance offensively.

Houston Texans – PUSH 9.5

It always feels like the Texans are just this close to being an elite team. If it’s not the QB, it’s the coaching. If it’s not the coaching, it’s the defense. C.J. Stroud had a bit of a sophomore slump numbers wise, but the overall offense was a mess. Bobby Slowik went from water-cooler head coaching prospect to out of a job in just two years. Replacement OC Nick Caley is an unknown, but the goal for Houston should be stability.

The defense is stacked with talent, and they invested in WR through the draft. Largely, though, the Texans are not overreacting and running it back. Expect more of the same in 2025.

Denver Broncos – OVER 9.5

In the wake of owner Pat Bowlen’s passing, Denver has undergone the longest stretch of football ineptitude in franchise history. Many factors from all corners of the organization contributed to the decade-long run of subpar results, but things seem to be falling in place.

The Walton-Penner ownership group finally provided stability at the very top, allowing the team to operate like they’re meant to. Since his arrival, Sean Peyton has been able to reshape the team, and its reinforced that he is still among the best in the business.

Under rookie Bo Nix, who had an amazing season that wins Rookie of the Year most Jayden Daniel-less years, the Broncos offense used elite play design, O-Line play, and screen game to make up for the lack of skill position talent. A more underrated note is that Nix will get another offseason to learn Peyton’s complex system. Two consecutive years with the same OC is something he’s never had in his college or pro career.

On the other side, the defense was truly Denver’s anchor, and it got better in the offseason. They had the best DEPA in 2024, the Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, and added impact 49ers Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga in free agency. The defense, with DC Vance Joseph‘s simple and fast scheme, will make opposing QB’s lives hell.

Their pash-rush was maybe the league’s best unit in 2024, which eases pressure on the secondary that brings back the reigning DPOY, stand-out Riley Moss, and adds first-round pick nickel Jahdae Barron and Tufunga. The Broncos did all the right things in the offseason and doubled down on their strengths. The AFC West might be Mile High bound in 2025.

Steelers – OVER 8.5

From now on, if a team goes 9-7 they should be awarded a Steelers badge on their jersey for the next season.

This recent Steelers offseason has been confounding. With a busy blend of good moves and questionable ones, it seems that they’re right back where they started at — mediocre.

Trading for DK Metcalf, just to trade George Pickens (accounting for certain character concerns) still leaves them with one reliable receiver. All-Pro CB Minkah Fitzpatrick was traded to Miami to acquire All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey, who’s two years older. Pittsburgh moved off Russell Wilson to bring in Aaron Rodgers — one well-out-of-his-prime QB for another. They let Najee Harris go and drafted Kaleb Johnson, who happens to play very similarly to Harris, out of Iowa.

It seems like the Steelers have taken three right turns to go left. Seeing Pittsburgh overtake Baltimore or Cincinnati in the division feels like a stretch. It makes their recent choice to extend GM Omar Khan look more than somewhat problematic.

Cincinnati Bengals – PUSH 9.5

The Bengals are if Harvey Dent was an NFL team. On one side is the virtuous offense, led by Joe Burrow, who continues to prove he’s an all-time QB, triple crown WR Ja’Marr Chase and stud WR2 Tee Higgins. All had the best season of their careers in 2024. They charted the 7th best OEPA, most passing touchdowns, and were near or at the top of almost every other passing stat. This is doubly impressive considering their offensive scheme, which doesn’t use many disguises or tricks to create openings. It’s just Burrow in shotgun, using his two wideouts, and being better than the defense.

On the other side of Two-Face is the sinister defense. They were 28th DEPA against the run and 24th in total DEPA. Lou Anarumo’s unit wasn’t an unmitigated disaster like Carolina’s, but they were not in a state to seriously compete for the title like the offense was.

Cincy haven’t made any improvements to the secondary. They (finally) signed their first round DE Shemar Stewart, but are still in a stalemate with star DE Trey Hendrickson. The one thing the defense did capably was rush the passer, in part due to Hendrickson’s terrific season. If they lose that, another season of Harvey Dent football seems to be inevitable.

Miami Dolphins – UNDER 8.5

This season marks a reflection point in Miami. The flashy and fast style of the short-lived ‘greatest show on surf‘ seems unfeasible in January. Tua’s health will always, rightfully, be a concern — he’s still under a hefty contract until 2028. Tyreek Hill, in addition to his seemingly constant off-the-field episodes, did not look like himself last season. The once-beloved and innovative Miami run game averaged only four yards per attempt.

The short and sweet recap of the Dolphins is that they heavily rely on Tua and his strengths. Without him, they become a significantly worse team. So, to prepare for Tua missing time they signed….Zach Wilson.

The Dolphins seem content to hope in the unlikelihood that Tua will play the whole season, instead of preparing for the situation that seems to occur every year. Mike McDaniel has entered hot seat territory, and given the divisions improvements, and fragility of the overall roster, this season could spiral fast.

New York Jets – OVER 5.5

Given the offseason the Jets have had, 5.5 wins seems like an amazingly low number.

Last season was a disaster in part due to the team’s lofty expectations with Aaron Rodgers. Looking at what the team gained versus what they lost, there’s plenty of reason for optimism in the Meadowlands.

Aaron Glenn did fantastic work in Detroit and brings a level of professionalism that has been needed for some time. Losing Rodgers is major addition-by-subtraction, both for the culture and on the field. Justin Fields isn’t Drew Brees or anything, but he isn’t terrible either. Fields has talent and can make big plays occasionally, especially on the ground.

The Jets hired Tanner Engstrand as their OC, who worked as the passing game coordinator with Glenn in Detroit. His work speaks for itself, and he’ll be able to maximize a thin receiving corps. The O-line is also shaping up to be elite with the addition of first-rounder Armand Membou. If the Jets can win five games with last year’s chaos, they can win at least that with solid ground underneath them.

Jacksonville Jaguars – OVER 7.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars, even given their underwhelming reputation, seem to continually disappoint. The team itself is always better on paper than the field. Perhaps this is falling for the same ruse, but Jacksonville has the bones of a competent team in 2025.

Liam Coen is among the most exciting head coaching hires of the offseason — a legitimate offensive creator who give his QB the tools to thrive based on their skillset. Trevor Lawrence has all the talent in the world, and now finally has a shepherd on the sideline.

Brian Thomas Jr. emerged as a legitimate budding superstar at WR, a possibility Jax has never really had. They improved the worst secondary in the league with the additions of S Eric Murray and CB Jourdan Lewis, and significantly beefed up the O-line to keep Lawrence upright. The Jags might not be world beaters yet, but we all know that 9-8 can get it done in the AFC South.

Las Vegas Raiders – PUSH 7.5

Likewise to Duval County, the Raiders underwent a sizeable facelift.

To go from Gardner Minshew, Antonio Pierce, and Alexander Mattison, to Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, and Pete Carroll, plus Tom Brady in the front office, in less than year is impressive. Brock Bowers is still a prodigy at TE, and Maxx Crosby is still a terror on the edge.

The core of this team is a lot more solid in the key positions and staff, and yet LV still has a ways to go before they can compete with the big dogs. Even in their own division, they have three monoliths in front of them.

Going forward, though, there’s positives to look at. They almost certainly won’t have the second-worst EPA in the NFL this year, boast lots of cap space ($30 million), have players to build off of, and will hopefully undergo a true culture shift. If the goal of the offseason is to improve the team, 2025 was a success in Sin City.

Tennessee Titans – UNDER 5.5

Cam Ward is just about the only exciting thing in Tennessee.

Ward is the true rags-to-riches story: an unranked High School prospect that went from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami University, to No. 1 pick. He also seems to have the sicko-competitiveness that bodes well for an NFL QB. The NCAA touchdown record isn’t too shabby either. It’s clear to see, though, why Tennessee had the No. 1 pick.

They ranked near the bottom in all offensive and defensive stats, and total EPA. Given the roster and Will Levis’ tendencies, the Titans somehow over-achieved in some aspects last year, and they still went 3-14. Like all teams in Tennessee’s position, the goal for 2025 shouldn’t be winning games, but developing Cam Ward. Six wins seems like a stretch.

Indianapolis Colts – PUSH 7.5

The Colts will be the new test case teams point to for drafting pure potential. Anthony Richardson had thrown a total of 393 pass attempts entering the NFL, which was validated by the eye-test. He is physically gifted enough to make some unbelievable throws, but lacks consistent accuracy desperately.

Richardson and Daniel Jones will compete in an open camp competition for the starting job. Richardson was shut down May 29 because of an ‘aggravation’ to his surgically repaired AC joint in the throwing shoulder. HC Shane Steichen didn’t give a timeline for Richardson’s return, but given the QB’s injury history and desperate need for reps, things look bleak in Indy.

If Richardson does struggle to beat out Jones for the starting job, then serious conversations need to happen regarding the plan at QB. Tyler Warren is a much needed upgrade at TE. The O-Line is still good, the WRs are still okay, and the defense is pretty good. Yet, unless Indy has someone to steer the ship on offense, more mediocrity is in store for the Colts.

New England Patriots – OVER – 8.5

Everyone and their mom is in on the Patriots in 2025, and rightfully so.

Drake Maye looks to be an NFL QB in the mold of Josh Allen. Mike Vrabel is among the best head coaches in the NFL on the field (watch the 2022 Titans vs. Chiefs playoff game for proof) and in the front office. He seems to have a sixth sense for how to make his teams annually competitive.

Josh McDaniels is back in his comfort zone as OC. McDaniels will likely emphasize the run game, which will take pressure off Maye and the dreadful receiving core. Will Campbell is a star in the making and as good of a first-round O-Line pick as a team can get. Vrabel’s influence will also help the defense, which was highly un-Patriot-like (29th DEPA) last year. The short and sweet is that New England has a much higher floor. The Wild Card is not an unrealistic possibility.

Cleveland Browns – UNDER 5.5

The Browns are once again in a tough place. On one hand, their draft and offseason was pretty solid. Narratives and media circus aside, QB Shedeur Sanders is incredible value in the 5th round, and Mason Graham is a perfect fit for Cleveland’s defense. The Dillon Gabriel pick made the Sanders pick seem very strange, but taking multiple QB’s when you have none isn’t terrible logic. Judkins is a great pick at RB, and Dylan Sampson might end up being a steal in the 4th round.

Still, Cleveland’s mess is large. The Deshaun Watson debacle and contract still looms as a dark cloud over the franchise, and it will be hard to build any cultural momentum with it present. They had the single worst OEPA in the league in 2024, and no signs point to that changing.

The defense was among the NFL’s strongest, but it’s aging. It’s also built off Myles Garrett who, while absurdly dominant, flirts with discontentment each offseason. The Browns have a gaping offensive cavern they just can’t overcome. As if it couldn’t get worse, Cleveland also possesses the second hardest strength of schedule. As the years go on, it becomes clearer that the Browns squandered something in Baker Mayfield and the roster around him.

Favorite AFC Overs: New York Jets and Denver Broncos

Favorite AFC Unders: Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins

Favorite AFC Stay Away: Pittsburgh Steelers