AFC title game prediction: Why Patrick Mahomes will win 'heavyweight matchup'

The AFC Championship Game features a showdown between Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Will Mahomes' pursuit of a third ring continue, or will Jackson punch his Super Bowl ticket for the first time? Here's a breakdown of the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4) | Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS

OFFENSE 
Chiefs: 22.3 points per game (14th) | 354.8 yards per game (eighth)

Ravens: 28.7 points per game (second) | 369.3 yards per game (sixth)

The Chiefs offense sputtered throughout the regular season, but it's finding its groove at the right time. In the postseason, Kansas City has averaged 26.5 points, and the ground attack is flourishing. Second-year RB Isiah Pachecho — who's battling a toe injury but insists he will play Sunday — has rushed for 186 yards, the second most in the playoffs.  

Baltimore, meanwhile, continues to roll. In a 34-10 divisional-round victory against the Houston Texans, the Ravens generated 352 yards. Per the Associated Press, Jackson became the first QB since 1948 with at least two passing TDs, two rushing TDs, 100 rushing yards and a 100 passer rating in a game. 

"He's going to be the MVP for a reason," Mahomes said of Jackson Wednesday. "He goes out there, leads his team, he scores, he runs, he throws, he does whatever it takes to win, and that's what the greats do."

DEFENSE 
Chiefs: 17.1 points per game (second) | 292.5 yards per game (third)

Ravens: 16.1 points per game (first) | 296.4 yards per game (fifth)

K.C. relies on its fierce pass-rush and stingy secondary. In the regular season, the Chiefs finished second in the league in sacks (57) and second in passing yards allowed (176.5). Their 18th-ranked run defense (114.9) is a concern, though. In a 27-24 divisional-round win against Buffalo, it surrendered 182 rushing yards.

Baltimore had the most sacks (60) in the regular season and tied for the league lead in takeaways (31). Against the Texans, the Ravens defense allowed no offensive TDs and 213 yards, the lowest figure in the postseason.

Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is one of the best play-callers in the league. On Wednesday, Baltimore All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith called him "a wizard" and praised his ability to pinpoint offensive weaknesses.  

THE PICK

Baltimore is hosting a conference championship for the first time in franchise history. Don't be surprised if an impassioned home crowd is a difference-maker for the Ravens. As of Thursday, FanDuel lists them as a 3.5-point favorite. But it's hard to bet against Mahomes — a two-time league MVP — in a big game. 

"I don't like competing against him at all," Jackson told the media Wednesday. "I believe it's just two greats, up-and-coming greats, going toe-to-toe like a heavyweight fight. Heavyweight matchup, that's what I see."

Mahomes, 28, is already tied for seventh in all-time playoff wins (13) and sixth in postseason passing TDs (38). Expect him to pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 23-21