AFC West quarterback undervalued in 2025 QB tiers

Another year, another opportunity for the NFL to try to write off Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith.

On Monday, The Athletic's Mike Sando revealed his annual QB tiers, where NFL coaches and executives are asked to place the league's top quarterbacks in Tiers 1 (great) through 5 (opposite of great).

For the third consecutive season, Smith placed in Tier 3. While his average slightly improved from a three last season to 2.9 this year, voters still aren't sold on the 2022 Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year.

Per The Athletic, one coach described as having played multiple games against Smith said, "Even when the team is good, you are always going to feel like we don't quite have the guy."

A defensive coordinator gave Smith a backhanded compliment, saying, "Geno is pretty good at everything, but nothing stands out as an elite trait."

Smith's accuracy suggests otherwise.

Since the start of the 2022 season, Smith has the third-highest completion percentage (68.5 percent) among 44 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts, trailing Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (69 percent) and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (68.9 percent). His 12 game-winning drives only trail Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (13). (h/t Stathead)

Like Smith, the Raiders are being undervalued entering the 2025 season. Multiple sportsbooks have their over-under win total set at 6.5 games. 

In addition to improving from the uninspiring Gardner Minshew-Aidan O'Connell duo at quarterback (let's just forget Desmond Ridder happened), Las Vegas selected running back Ashton Jeanty, the 2024 Heisman runner-up, at No. 6 overall in the NFL Draft. 

The Raiders should also benefit from a likely second-year leap from tight end Brock Bowers, who set the rookie tight end records for receptions (112) and receiving yards (1,194) a season ago.

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, 28, is coming off his first 1,000-yard season and playing on an expiring contract, incentivizing him to follow up his career year with an even better 2025.

The biggest question about the Raiders offense is up front. Last season, the Vegas offensive line ranked in the bottom half of the league in ESPN's pass- and run-block win rate rankings. The Raiders didn't make many meaningful changes to the unit, adding guard Caleb Rogers and tackle Charles Grant in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft and signing veteran Alex Cappa (who was discarded by the Cincinnati Bengals) to a two-year deal in free agency.

The line might be the biggest weakness of the Raiders offense, but there's enough to like at the skill positions and, yes, quarterback, for Las Vegas to be better than expected. Maybe then Smith will get the respect he deserves.