Best and worst NFL betting teams through eight weeks
While betting trends are evening out in some pockets of the NFL, some teams are dominating a certain angle. We have three teams covering the spread at a 75% rate, and two teams have gone under in seven of their eight games.
Let's take stock of the league as we head into Week 9.
Best teams ATS
- Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
- New York Giants (6-2)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
- Tennessee Titans (5-2)
The best spread teams are dominated by the NFC East, with Dallas, New York and Philadelphia a combined 17-6 ATS. Washington is no slouch either at 4-4 ATS. This may be the best division in football.
After starting 6-0 ATS, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in two straight games.
Worst teams ATS
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (2-5)
The Jaguars, Bucs and Rams all lost again in Week 8 and remain some of the worst teams you could be betting on in the NFL. There are a handful of teams 3-5 ATS, but for the most part, spread betting has been pretty even across the league.
Best teams: Overs
- Detroit Lions (5-2)
- Cleveland Browns (5-2-1)
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-2-1)
- New Orleans Saints (5-3)
- Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
For what feels like the first time, the Browns hit on an over thanks more to their offense than their defensive issues, beating Cincinnati 32-13 on Monday night.
The Lions finally found their offense this past weekend, scoring 27 points after previously being held to just six points across two games. Their defense remains one of the NFL's worst, aiding their high over rate.
Best teams: Unders
- Indianapolis Colts (7-1)
- Denver Broncos (7-1)
- Buffalo Bills (6-1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
- New York Giants (6-2)
- Los Angeles Rams (5-2)
- Tennessee Titans (5-2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)
It's been a trend we've remarked on for a few weeks, but unders are the more profitable betting approach when betting totals this season.
The Colts and Broncos moved to 7-1 against the under, an 87.5% rate. Buffalo has gone over their points total only once, in large part due to an elite defense.
In total, eight teams are going under at a rate higher than 62%.
Week 9 Matchups to Consider
Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.5 points) - One of these teams will cover the spread, something each has seriously struggled with. Both teams are also going under far more often than not, and the 42.5 total is one of the lower over/unders of the weekend. When these teams met in the Divisional Round last year, the Rams won 30-27. They also meet in the regular season last year, with the Rams winning 34-24. Both of those 2021-22 matchups went over this weekend's total and saw a Los Angeles win. Are you trusting last year's data or weighing this year's trends more?
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