Free Agency & Draft Predictions: Dillon out as RB2?

Estime is an elite looking prospect who, depending on a lot of factors between now and the draft, may find himself coming off of the board before the Packers pick in the second round. Assuming he’s there, a second round replacement for the 2020 second round pick AJ Dillon might be poetic.

Estime, who is 5’11 and about 230 pounds, looks and plays like a strong and bruising RB. He has a muscular frame and his ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact is apparent on film. This is probably the most notable prospect that the Packers will have interest in, assuming they’re looking for Dillon’s replacement in April.

Braelon Allen – Wisconsin

Allen might be my favorite RB prospect in the entire class. At 6’2 and 245 pounds his best size comparison at the NFL level is probably Derrick Henry. Questions about his pass protection abilities are valid, but there’s no doubt that many RBs end up honing that skill at the NFL level. I’m not usually all about the Wisconsin prospects like some Packers fans may be, but sign me up for this Badger’s hype train.

I can’t see how Allen isn’t being projected by most analysts as a top 3 RB prospect in this class. If he’s there in the third round, he would be a phenomenal fit in Green Bay, not only as Dillon’s replacement, but potentially as a future RB1 for the Packers.

Ray Davis – Kentucky

Davis is a prospect that I don’t think fits neatly into a box. When looking at the RB position as a binary where we either have bigger stronger backs or smaller shiftier backs, Davis is somewhere in the middle. Some would look at this optimistically and say that he’s versatile in his abilities, and some would say he doesn’t have any clear identifiable strengths that make him stand out. I tend to lean towards optimism with this prospect.

Davis, who stands at approximately 5’9 and around 220 pounds, has shown the ability to get yards in many different ways. He showed off good vision at the line of scrimmage during his short tenure at Kentucky, and he also did well in short yardage situations, whether he had to find a cutback lane or just bruise up the middle. His pass catching ability has also improved greatly over the last year. Many describe Davis as a “high floor, low ceiling” prospect, and that may be a fair option to replace someone like AJ Dillon.

Conclusion

Despite an—at times—underwhelming outcome from Dillion’s usage as a short yardage RB in Green Bay, he had some great moments, too. Without him the Packers would have certainly been in some trouble during Aaron Jones’ long absence in the 2023 season, for instance.

AJ Dillon will likely be able to get paid more than the Packers are willing to spend on a RB not named Aaron Jones. The Packers are undoubtedly looking at many prospects in the 2024 draft who can fill his shoes, and maybe even Jones’ shoes in the coming years. Don’t be surprised if we see at least one new face at the running back position in 2024.