Is Michael Thomas worth $22M a year? Here's why WR might force Saints to pay up.
In the depths of the off-season, it’s usually quarterback contracts that set NFL discourse aflame. This year, sure enough there are those, what with the looming Dak Prescott-Cowboys deal and the freakout sure to follow. But every so often a non-QB makes an intriguing case. Right now, that’s Saints receiver Michael Thomas.
Thomas, who in three seasons with New Orleans has been to the Pro Bowl twice and posted 1,000 yards three times, is reportedly seeking $22 million a year. That would make him the highest-paid receiver in the league and the only making more than $20 million per. At $18 million a year, the Browns' Odell Beckham makes the most.
It’s true that the annual cry over ballooning salaries has to do with people who either don’t realize or willfully ignore that the price always goes up for top talent. The most recent deal for whoever is at or near the top of his position is likely to become highest paid. It might be easy to forget since he was inexplicably traded after signing it, but Beckham’s latest deal was only signed a year ago.
So Thomas, who holds the NFL record for most receptions by a player through his first three seasons (321), is talking about a roughly 11 percent increase over Beckham’s deal, significant for any year-to-year jump in the top earning spot. If Thomas can get it, more power to him, and the second-round pick certainly has shown the productivity on the field needed to even make this request. New Orleans is said to be amenable to giving Thomas big money, even more than Beckham, but perhaps not quite as much more than Beckham as Thomas would like.
Pro Football Focus’ ratings can be a little more subjective than its reputation suggests, but it is nonetheless well regarded among the football community. PFF had Thomas ranked ahead of Beckham in its highest-grade wide receivers in 2018.
If this seems strange, it’s only because Thomas hasn’t yet reached household name status. In fact, he’s only recently even been included in the conversation. That makes sense because unless someone is widely heralded and has a Randy Moss-type rookie season, it takes observers a few years to cotton onto their potential greatness.
There’s another factor at play: that Saints receivers in the Drew Brees era often struggle to get respect league-wide and are compensated accordingly by the team. Brees tends to spread the ball around, and therefore the importance of each particular receiver seems to be diminished. Perhaps that was why the Saints caught the world by surprise by dealing Jimmy Graham while the tight end was at the height of his powers. Since then, Graham hasn’t been able to match the level of dominance he had in New Orleans, even with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. (In 2018 with the Packers, he had 55 receptions in 89 targets and two TD catches.) Surely, that has only solidified the Saints' approach to paying weapons in the passing game.
The Saints have allowed Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills to leave when they were solid to stellar contributors. That they’re willing to do a big deal with Thomas shows they realize he’s a bit more of an exception than the late-round talents that have largely comprised the Saints' receiving corps under Brees, but it also means it’ll be a tall order for him to really stretch the parameters.
At the same time, Thomas may be fortunate that he reaps the benefits of Brees for the first four years of his career, but his contract considerations come into play when the Saints must think about life after Brees. Maybe not caving to Thomas' demands and letting him walk might make sense if Brees were 30, but now that he’s 40, they can’t risk not setting up his successor with one of the best receivers in football. Time makes fools of us all, and the end of the Brees era may finally make New Orleans come to see the value of a top receiver.
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