MNF player prop: Noah Brown's night
Sunday's long play props went 3-5, which is of course not to the standard we'd like to see. However, these standalone prime time games have been kind to us, with long play props 6-0 this year on TNF and MNF.
Well it's Monday, time to keep the streak alive. Even with Michael Gallup expected back, I'm seeing some value in a young Dallas pass-catcher who has started the year strong.
Noah Brown over 17.5 long reception (-110 DK)
Yes, it looks like Michael Gallup is playing tonight, but I don't think it's going to affect Noah Brown's snap counts as much as you might think. Last season, Dallas was consistently trotting out three wide receiver sets, with three WRs playing 58% or more of the snaps in 12 of their 18 games.
Brown has a phenomenal start to his season, hauling in 10 catches for 159 yards. Through two weeks, Brown has recorded three catches of 20+ yards, with a long of 22 and 28 in each.
Brown's aDOT of 12.3 is higher than CeeDee Lamb's and his 15.9 yards per catch easily tops the team. The man has been a walking big play in this offense, and Cooper Rush clearly trusts him.
Gallup or not, Brown is going to stay involved in this offense, and he gets a secondary that has shown some leaks to begin the season.
Through two games, New York has allowed eight passes of 20+ yards, which was tied for fourth-most heading into Week 3. The Giants also have a DADOT of 8.3, sixth-highest in the league. If you haven't read my pieces before, DADOT aims to quantify how far down the field offenses have been throwing the ball against the defense. That high number shows me that this defense has their vulnerabilities and teams are aiming to capitalize on them.
Five of the eight 20+ yard catches the Giants have allowed have been to receivers. I'm liking Brown here, this is a very manageable number, even as the WR3 in Dallas.
Let's finish Week 3 strong.
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