NFL best bets: Week 3 'Beat the Line' moves
We've been successful so far in our mission to create closing line value (CLV) and make winning NFL bets early in the week. We're 2-1-2 in positive CLV and 4-1 against the spread through five picks in "Beat the Line" bets with the Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 pending on Monday night.
This is a great exercise in our season-long goal to beat the books. With Week 3 lines up and moving already, here are the three early bets I'm placing that I believe will give us CLV by kickoff.
Season record: 2-1-2 CLV, 4-1 ATS
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
The Giants were on their way to a historically bad start to the season, as they were outscored, 60-0, in their first six quarters of play. Miraculously, though, New York outscored the Arizona Cardinals, 31-8, in the second half to steal a win on the road.
The bad news for the Giants is they have to stay out west and play the San Francisco 49ers on a short week, and they'll likely be without star running back Saquon Barkley due to an ankle injury. With how inept New York has looked in the trenches so far, this is just about the worst matchup they could ask for. This loaded 49ers defensive line, led by Nick Bosa, should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage all night long, and San Francisco will be able to run the ball with ease.
This spread opened at -10, and it's already rising. I'd be surprised if it stopped moving before Thursday night.
The bet to make: 49ers -10.5 (-108 DraftKings)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Spoiler alert: Zach Wilson is no Aaron Rodgers.
The former first-round draft pick struggled mightily in his first start of the season, completing just 12 of his 27 pass attempts for 170 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions against the Dallas Cowboys. Wilson played even worse than his stats suggest, too. Garrett Wilson took a short pass 68 yards to the house in the second quarter, but it was an abysmal offensive game aside from that one splash play.
In his last start against the New England Patriots, Wilson went 9-22 for only 77 yards and no touchdowns. The Jets scored a whopping three points in that game, and we could see a similar offensive output with the 0-2 Patriots needing a win in Week 3. This total is only going to drop throughout the week.
The bet to make: Under 37.5 (-110 FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
I'm not a believer in the new-look New Orleans Saints. Have we forgotten that Dennis Allen is 16-38 straight up and 21-32-1 against the spread as a head coach? Or that Derek Carr is 28-44 on the road as a starting quarterback?
The Saints should've lost to the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, and there's a chance they lose to the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. If that upset happens, this spread will shoot up to a field goal before you can say "gumbo." Even if New Orleans goes to 2-0, I have a good feeling this spread will close at or around -3 depending on the Green Bay Packers' injury report.
The bet to make: Packers -1.5 (-118 FD)
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