NFL Draft bets and odds: Looking at the top of the WR class
The 2023 NFL Draft is headlined by the quarterback class, with likely four expected to be taken in the top 10. After the QB position, the top of the draft is largely dominated by defensive linemen and corners. In a league that values the passing game, there are certain to be a few wide receivers taken in the first round, but the class isn't considered to be on par with some of our recent classes.
With that being said, we can reasonably expect four to six WRs to be taken in the first round come April. DraftKings has betting markets open for both the first wide receiver selected and who will select some of this year's top prospects.
First WR selected odds
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State (-150)
- Quentin Johnston, TCU (+350)
- Zay Flowers, Boston College (+450)
- Jordan Addison, USC (+700)
- Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (+1400)
Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba has pulled away from Quentin Johnson as the odds-on favorite to be drafted first. Smith-Njigba is lauded for his route running and projects as a slot receiver in the NFL. A few years ago, a receiver destined for the slot may be a red flag, but offenses have evolved and typically have three WRs on the field.
Quentin Johnston still has our attention. The TCU receiver brings elite size and athleticism to the table. Johnston comes in at 6'3'' and is one of the fastest receivers in this year's class. While he has some inconsistencies on tape and some believe his cap is as a quality WR2, if we were placing a bet on this market right now, his +350 price is the clear value.
Odds on which team will draft Smith-Njigba
- Houston (+500)
- Chicago (+550)
- New England (+600)
- Baltimore (+700)
- NY Giants (+1000)
We can understand the appeal for Chicago drafting Smith-Njigba, a former teammate of Justin Fields. However, after trading for DJ Moore, the Bears' wide receiver room suddenly looks quite competent, with Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney rounding out the group.
Houston is the favorite and we like them here. It would be quite the surprise for the Texans to not draft a QB at No. 2, and they have another pick at 12. This offense has a few quality pieces, but wide receiver is a massive need, especially after the trade of beleaguered WR Brandin Cooks.
Keep an eye on Philadelphia at +3500. The Eagles have two first rounders this year at Nos. 10 and 30, and GM Howie Roseman has been no stranger to moving up and down in the draft. While Jalen Hurts enjoys two elite outside WRs in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, slot receiver is an underrated need for this team. Smith-Njigba would be a classic case of the rich get richer, but if he's on the board, you can bet that Philly will give some serious thought to further investing into the success of their offense and Hurts.
Odds on which team will draft Johnston
- New England (+650)
- Houston (+650)
- Minnesota (+750)
- Baltimore (+750)
- Green Bay (+850)
We like the value on Minnesota here. Adam Thielen signed with the Panthers, leaving a void opposite Justin Jefferson. The NFC North is wide open with Aaron Rodgers still likely to leave, but both Chicago and Detroit are on the up-and-up. Minnesota needs to build on their 13-4 season and continue stocking up on the offensive side of the ball.
The Vikings currently select No. 23, which according to most mock drafts seems to be right in the sweet spot of when the run on receivers is coming.
One longshot we'll call out is New Orleans, currently at +2800 to draft Johnston. The Saints currently have thew 29th pick and likely would need to trade up to grab Johnston, but after moving up to select Chris Olave last season, they've shown themselves willing to make trades to select their guy.
After signing Derek Carr this offseason, the Saints need to surround him with more talent on offense. Similarly to the Vikings, the Saints division is wide open, and with Michael Thomas no longer a reliable option, wide receiver is a very real need for New Orleans.
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