Young Bucs Providing Surplus Value

Current Value Estimate: $9,875,000 (Based off of 2024 alone)

Surplus Value: $8,475,909

White proved to be a workhorse last year. His 336 total touches were second in the NFL to just Christian McCaffrey. Volume can be a big driver in free agency. All five of the highest-correlated metrics with running back contracts are volume statistics (but not all of those statistics may be what you think they are). But while White proved he can handle the workload of a lead back, his efficiency metrics were not on par with the game’s elite players.

Still, it was quite impressive how many yards the 2022 third-round pick was able to generate last year. A significant portion of those came through the air, which allows for him to stay on the field as an every-down back. White’s stable metric production last year most closely aligns with the three-year average for Joe Mixon in the leadup to his contract extension with the Houston Texans this year. That deal was for two years and $19.75 million, giving him an average per year (APY) salary of $9.875 million.

This valuation is based off of White’s breakout 2023 season. If we were to look at his two-year body of work, his valuation would come down to $5.07 million and would again align with Mixon, but his 2023 contract of two years and $11.5 million for an APY of $5.75 million.

The Bucs used a fourth-round draft pick on Bucky Irving in April with hopes of reducing White’s workload this year. They also made some valuable additions to the offensive line in an effort to improve the third-year back’s rate/efficiency production to help offset some of the reduction in touches. It should be interesting to see how those two factors intermix and what his valuation looks like this time next year.

Bucs OT Luke Goedeke

2024 Salary Cap Number: $1,685,178

Current Value Estimate: $15,500,000 (Based off of 2024 alone)

Surplus Value: $13,814,822

Goedeke’s one-year turnaround has been nothing short of a Hollywood movie script. Once completely written off as a bust during a disastrous 2022 rookie campaign, the loveable big man had to delete his social media due to the hateful messages he was receiving due to his poor play. A position switch and a season later, Goedeke is very much the bell of the Bucs ball right now.

His play last year, which included 40 pressures and a 5.83% pressure rate allowed, 70.5 run block grade and 71.2 pass block grade from Pro Football Focus all compare favorably with Charles Leno’s 2020 season. Leno was able to parlay that performance into a three-year, $37 million ($12.33 APY) contract with Washington. Account for salary cap inflation, and that APY jumps up to $15.5 million.

I have previously called for the Bucs to get in early on a Goedeke extension next year if he can replicate his 2023 play in 2024, advocating for a deal in the $16.5 million-$17.5 million APY range. His current $15.5 million valuation would rise to that range if the 2025 salary cap pushes to $275 million as I expect it to.

Looking at just last year, these two players provided over $20 million of surplus value for the Bucs in what is becoming an increasingly impressive draft haul for the team from 2022. Add in the early returns from last year’s rookie class and you have the makings for a talented and eventually expensive team.