Analyst has contract recommendation regarding Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa

ESPN NFL analyst Bill Barnwell believes the Miami Dolphins should take a wait-and-see approach as it pertains to the long-term future of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. 

"Tagovailoa has a $23.2M fully guaranteed fifth-year option for 2024, which the Dolphins can restructure to create cap space," Barnwell explained in a piece published Monday. "Teams typically want to extend their quarterbacks before they enter the final seasons of their deals, but with Tagovailoa, this is a scenario that calls for playing out that option." 

Tagovailoa famously suffered a minimum of two reported concussions during the 2022 season and admitted in April 2023 that he considered retiring due to concerns related to such head injuries. However, the 25-year-old spent portions of last offseason training in jiu-jitsu to learn how to fall in a way that would help him avoid concussions, and he then started all of Miami's 17 regular-season games and also this past Saturday's 26-7 wild-card playoff loss at the Kansas City Chiefs. 

According to ESPN stats, Tagovailoa finished the regular season ranked 10th among qualified players with a 60.7 adjusted QBR and first with 4,624 passing yards. He was tied for fifth with 29 touchdown passes, but such numbers only tell a portion of the story regarding his campaign. 

"They went 1-6 and averaged 15.1 points per game on offense against teams with a winning record," Barnwell noted about the Dolphins. "Against the rest of the league, they went 10-1 and more than doubled their scoring, generating 35.5 points per game." 

Some NFL executives reportedly believe the Dolphins should make Tagovailoa available to other clubs and look to sign current Minnesota Vikings signal-caller Kirk Cousins in free agency this March. There's currently no indication the Dolphins would move on from Tagovailoa during the upcoming offseason, while Cousins could give the Vikings a discount to stay in Minnesota for at least two more years. 

Barnwell added that Tagovailoa might "have little choice but to bet on himself and hope that next season turns out to end much more comfortably than this one did" because Miami may not yet be willing to give the 2020 first-round draft pick "a market-value contract" considering how he and Miami's offense performed against winning teams this season. Against the Chiefs, Tagovailoa completed 20-of-39 passes for 199 yards with one touchdown and one interception.