Analyst names Seattle Seahawks among NFL teams most likely to regress in 2025

The Seattle Seahawks have made a list of the NFL teams most likely to regress this year, courtesy of Matt Johnson at Sportsnaut. Other teams that made the list include the Washington Commanders, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Commanders are an obvious regression candidate, as are the Steelers. However, we disagree with Detroit on the account of their injuries last year that kept their ceiling artifically low. Fully healthy, the Lions were easily the best team in the NFL in 2024 and it wasn't close. The Chiefs have been due for a regression for years but it hasn't happened - and Patrick Mahomes has proven he can carry even a lackluster skill group to the Super Bowl - so we'd take them off the list, as well.

As for the Seahawks, it really could go either way. We expect Seattle's defense to play at an elite level day one and continue going strong as long as their core pieces are healthy. The x-factor will be whether Sam Darnold can replicate what he did last year in Minnesota. Johnson doesn't see that happening.

"It’s more likely that Seattle gets the quarterback who posted a 78.3 QB rating with a 63-56 TD-INT ratio in his first 56 games than the MVP-caliber quarterback who compiled a 106.4 QB rating and a 35-12 TD-INT line in his first 16 games with the Minnesota Vikings last year. The Seahawks don’t have the infrastructure to help Darnold perform anywhere close to the level we saw in 2024. With inferior quarterback play, a 10-7 team last year will win no more than seven games this fall."

Going from 10-7 to 7-10 would be a pretty big step backwards - even if you believe Darnold won't be able to match his production with the Vikings.

We're still in the camp that says Darnold made a legitimate break-through last season - and a modest step down in his supporting cast isn't going to take away the remarkable abilities he put on tape. Those traits were always present with Darnold ever since he was drafted - it just took him an abnormally long time to really put it all together and start living up to his potential.

The Seahawks will have to figure something out regarding their interior pass protection - maybe those fullbacks will serve as an extra body-guard in the pocket. Whatever the solution, if they can find a way to keep Darnold upright long enough to keep delivering what was the best deep game in the league last year then this offense will be just fine and this team is going to be a real dark horse threat.