Analyst paints gloomy picture of Seahawks replacing Geno Smith with Sam Darnold

Shortly after it was learned that the Seattle Seahawks planned to trade quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders, it was reported that the Seahawks agreed to a three-year, $100.5M contract with former Minnesota Vikings starter Sam Darnold. 

For a piece published Wednesday, ESPN NFL analyst Ben Solak shared why he believes Seattle will regret making such a financial commitment to Darnold this offseason. 

"Seattle's offensive line was one of the worst in the league last season, as Smith was pressured within 2.5 seconds on 18.8% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate according to NFL Next Gen Stats," Solak explained. "And the pass-catching group of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn't hold a candle to that of (Minnesota's) Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Darnold won't even get that same trio Smith had; Metcalf is a Steeler now, and Lockett has been released."

ESPN's Brady Henderson reported on Wednesday that the Seahawks had agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Few, if any league executives, would consider going from Metcalf to Valdes-Scantling a positive for any club. 

ESPN's Seth Walder warned before the legal tampering portion of free agency began on Monday that certain stats showed Darnold wasn't elite during the 2024 regular season even though he finished Week 18 ranked fifth in the league with 35 passing touchdowns and fifth with 4,319 passing yards. Per Pro Football Reference, Darnold was 15th among qualified players with a 60.4 adjusted QBR, 15th with a 47.7 percent passing success rate and 17th with a 66.2 percent completion percentage.

"The Vikings' defense (fourth by success rate and second by expected points added per play in the regular season) regularly gave Darnold better field position and score differentials than Seattle's gave Smith, which makes passing easier," Solak continued. "Darnold played in a play-action-heavy offense under (Vikings head coach) Kevin O'Connell, which makes passing easier than the straight dropback offense Smith was forced to captain under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb (who has since been fired)."

For what it's worth, Darnold will be playing under recently hired offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak with the Seahawks. Kubiak's offense is similar to O'Connell's, and Kubiak was the San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator when Darnold was San Francisco's backup during the 2023 season.