Analyst Sees Chiefs Having to Work Harder to Win Division

Most people can easily find 11 wins in the Chiefs’ 2025 schedule after seeing it for the first time Wednesday. And assuming free agent Jaylon Moore or first-round selection Josh Simmons can shore up Kansas City’s obvious issues at left tackle, maybe the Chiefs get to 12-5, or even 13-4.

Adam Schefter is preaching caution with regard predicting the customary Chiefs win totals.

“I would say this,” the insider said on Thursday’s edition of NFL Live, “that this may just be the single toughest division and the most division challenges that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have faced since he started as the Chiefs' starting quarterback and took over that job from Alex Smith.”

Mahomes took over for Smith in the final game of his rookie season, making his first NFL start on Dec. 31, 2017, in Denver. Since kickoff that day, the Broncos have started 11 quarterbacks (Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix) and employed four full-time head coaches (Vance Joseph, Vic Fangio, Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton).

The Raiders in that span have had five full-time head coaches (Jack Del Rio, Josh McDaniels, Jon Gruden, Antonio Pierce and Pete Carroll) and started seven quarterbacks (Derek Carr, Jarrett Stidham, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder).

The Chargers have had more stability in that period, but have exited the playoffs in disappointing fashion on two occasions.

In the meantime, Mahomes has gone 35-5 against his division and the Chiefs have extended their streak of AFC West titles to nine seasons (2016-24). But Schefter thinks Kansas City will have to work harder than ever to reach double figures in that streak.

“The Denver Broncos should be improved over where they were last year,” he said. “The Chargers in the second year under Jim Harbaugh should be that much tougher, and the Raiders have a new head coach, a new attitude, a new running back that's gonna be able to help carry that offense.

“I see huge division challenges all across the board for the Chiefs, making it difficult for them to finish in the top five with as many wins as they normally do.”

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