Analytics Answer Whether Broncos Overpaid Randy Gregory

Billy Turner | OT

Knowles noted that the model loved the contract the Broncos gave Turner. He signed a one-year, $2.5M contract after the Packers cut him. The PAYME metric valued Turner at $10.4M, after the veteran had several quality seasons with the Packers.

While it remains to be seen how Turner will fare with the Broncos in his second stint, he does come on a low-cost deal. The only risk here is that Turner doesn't play well at all, but the Broncos did hedge their best by retaining Anderson and adding Tom Compton.

Of course, with Turner and the others on one-year deals, it's not a given the Broncos have their long-term solution at right tackle.

D.J. Jones | DT

Jones got a sizable deal at three years for $30M. That might seem like an overpay for a defensive lineman whose best trait is run defense, but he's good at generating quarterback pressures and freeing up other linemen.

PAYME valued Jones at $10.7M, so his contract is in line with what he might have been expected to get. Knowles noted that Jones was a better signing than Folorunso Fatukasi, who got the same amount of money from the Jaguars.

"Jones has been a force as both a run-stopper and an interior pass-rusher for San Francisco—only seven sacks over the three seasons, but a substantial amount of pressures to go along with excellent run defense.... While I love Fatukasi as a player, he's more of a one-dimensional run stopper than Jones is, and $10 million a year for a run-stopping nose tackle is a bit much."

Randy Gregory | OLB

As Knowles noted, edge rusher is a position of "yeah, but..." though some numbers need context. This brings us to Gregory, who will earn $28M over the next two years.

PAYME valued Gregory at $4.9M, but as Knowles wrote, he missed time in 2019 and 2020 with injuries and because of suspensions. That valuation jumps to $8.8M if you only account for his 2021 season.

Still, Gregory's signing isn't risk-free. Given that he's missed so much time on the field, the Broncos are counting on him to be available and to make an impact during the next two season at least. 

If he delivers, his signing might look more like a bargain. But if he misses too much time, Broncos fans won't be happy with this deal. There's a reason PAYME valued Gregory as the least-valuable edge rusher contract handed out in the NFL this year. 

Josey Jewell | ILB

Jewell's two-year, $11M deal is viewed as a slight overpay. His PAYME value came to $4.5M, whereas Jewell will average $5.5M per year on his contract.

However, do note that Jewell didn't break out until his third season, plus he missed time with injuries in his fourth season. While it might be a slight overpay, it's not one I'd sweat as much.

The good news is the Broncos can cut Jewell after the season if things don't work out. They aren't tied down to him for as many years as they are with Jones and Gregory.

Kareem Jackson | S

Jackson was included for his notoriety. He signed a one-year, $2M deal with incentives. PAYME measured his worth at $4.4M, so the model is favorable to Jackson's deal.

Although Jackson isn't the same player he was when he first joined the Broncos, he's shown he can be a solid contributor. As with Turner, the only risk is that he doesn't play well at all, but the Broncos do have some young safeties who could step up.

I do wish more contracts had been evaluated — K'Waun Williams is one in particular, given that he got a two-year deal. It would have been nice to see how Melvin Gordon's deal measured up, but he did re-sign just prior to the draft, so that may be why it wasn't included.

Regardless, the Football Outsiders is one way to look at the value of a contract. However, as with any player, what ultimately matters is what the player does on the field. That will really tell you whether the contract is a good deal or not.