Analytics Disprove Ridiculous ESPN Take on Broncos QB Bo Nix

Broncos Country is in a bit of an uproar over a recent Bomani Jones interview on the Mina Kimes Show. Jones dissed Bo Nix and, therefore, the Denver Broncos.

Broncos fans have a right to be upset because Jones’ opinion was based on a flawed analysis and seemed to be rooted in his college assessment of Nix instead of what transpired in his rookie NFL season.

Jones stated that he is “not a Bo Nix guy and will not be a Bo Nix guy for a while.” Jones' opinion, as stated by him, is based on two things: Nix’s college film and ESPN analyst Benjamin Solak’s breakdown of the number of passes the Broncos' QB had behind the line of scrimmage as a rookie.

“I saw your guy Solak make this point: if you were not high on Bo Nix going into the draft and there wasn’t really that much in the season that should change your mind — it’s a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage, a lot of use of the scheme to make it easy for you," Jones told Kimes. "That catches up to you. No matter how good you think Sean Payton is, you can only scheme your way so far if that’s the scheme you’ve got to do to make it work with your quarterback.”

A Flawed Premise

Let’s break this down to understand the flaws. Nix is no longer a college quarterback or a rookie. He has a full season of film, including a playoff game, to evaluate his play.

Jones seems to be biased because of his pre-draft evaluation instead of watching what Nix did this past season in the NFL. Nix's improvement over the course of the season, his ability to make all the NFL-level throws, his 29 touchdown passes, being in the running for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and the fact that he was the offense for the Broncos because of a nonexistent running game. That was Jones' first mistake.

Jones’ next mistake was relying on an analysis that no longer holds true in the NFL. Coaches are not using passes behind the line of scrimmage to shelter a quarterback with limited skills.

The New NFL Status Quo

Passing behind the line of scrimmage has actually become the offensive philosophy of all quarterbacks. The folks over at Gridiron Intelligence conducted a study of NFL passes since 2006. They found that completions behind the line of scrimmage have grown tremendously, and nearly every quarterback today is doing it.  

It's true that Nix ranked second behind Tua Tagovailoa in percentage of completions behind the line of scrimmage in 2024.  However, that was only 3% higher than Patrick Mahomes and was exactly the same as Mahomes' 2023 numbers. Would Jones tell us that Andy Reid is scheming this due to Mahomes' limitations? I would think not. 

If you compare Nix in 2024 to Mahomes in 2023, their percentages behind the line of scrimmage, from 0 to 4 yards and 5 to 10 yards, are almost identical. Combined with that fact, there were 25 qualifying quarterbacks with a percentage of completed passes behind the line of scrimmage greater than 20% last season, and it's easy to see that this is how coaches are scheming nowadays. 

In 2006, there were only two quarterbacks above 20%. That analysis showed that nearly every offense in the NFL is focusing on passes behind the line of scrimmage. It has grown tremendously and continues to do so.

The analysis also showed that this growth impacts passes in the 0 to 4 yards range far more than other distances.  Offensive coordinators are not using the “negative air yard” passing game to support a limited quarterback; it's the new offensive philosophy and the new short passing game in the NFL today. 

The Takeaway

Jones has a right to his opinion, but in his capacity as an NFL analyst, he should at least base that opinion on current facts and strive to remain unbiased. Otherwise, he looks foolish.

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Broncos Country has a right to express its displeasure with Jones on social media.