Analytics expert: Cowboys won't win more than nine games

A national sports analytics writer doesn't expect the Cowboys to win more than nine games this season. Dallas won 12 games and the NFC East division crown last year. 

Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post introduced bets that could provide good value--one was betting the under (9 or 9 1/2 wins) on the Cowboys.

“A lot of skill and fortitude go into a year like that, but so does a bit of luck,” Greenberg wrote of Dallas' 2021 season. “Specifically, the Cowboys enjoyed a lot of turnover luck on defense. Generally speaking, turnovers have always been more random than people think, and success at forcing them doesn’t carry over from year to year.”

Cornerback Trevon Diggs tied the NFL season interception record with 11 picks. Although Diggs is good, he is unlikely to reach that total again. 

The Cowboys face big problems on the other side of the ball. Left tackle Tyron Smith, a mainstay on the offensive line, will miss most of the season with a left hamstring injury. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith was the fourth-best offensive lineman in the league last season.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has proven he can handle pressure, but he had reliable targets in recent seasons. In the offseason, star wideout Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. As the 2022 season looms, wide receiver Michael Gallup is still rehabbing a torn left ACL. 

The Cowboys' schedule is challenging. Three of their first five games are against the Rams, Bengals and Buccaneers. All three of those teams have made a Super Bowl appearance in the past two years. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 2018.