Analytics Predict What Role Awaits Broncos Rookie OL Alex Forsyth

Entering the 2023 NFL draft, the Denver Broncos had only five picks, and one of them ended up being the third-to-last pick in the seventh round. Once in a while, a seventh-rounder ends up being a 'find' and turns out to be a good player. 

The Broncos have to hope that seventh-round center Alex Forsyth is one of those gems. The Broncos need Forsyth to become a solid player in the middle of the line because the incumbent center, Lloyd Cushenberry III, has struggled. 

Will Forsyth take over the starting role in 2023? Taking a deep look at how seventh-round drafted players in the past have fared in the NFL over time can offer some future predictions for Forsyth.

The Probability Metric

The first step is determining the probability of becoming a primary starter in the NFL based on position and round. The probability of a player drafted in the second half of the seventh round becoming a primary starter is 0.035, regardless of position. That's a next-to-none likelihood.

Interior offensive linemen fare better than the average position when drafted in Round 7, though. They have a probability of becoming a primary starter of 0.105, which would indicate that Forsyth has a slight advantage over some positions drafted in the same round.

Translating the Metric

This gives some insight into how a player's overall career might pan out, but what about his first year in the league? For seventh-round rookies, the analytics don’t paint a great picture, but there was a fair number who started games in 2022.

In 2021, no players drafted in the seventh round became primary starters for their respective teams in their rookie season, but that number increased to two in 2022. In 2021, 10 rookies (32%) started at least one game, and in 2022, that number jumped to 16 rookies (39%). None of them started all 17 games, and the average starts went from two in 2021 to three in 2022 for all seventh-round rookies.

READ: Analytics Predict What Role Awaits Broncos Rookie S JL Skinner

Forsyth's Outlook

The odds are long that Forsyth will start games as a Broncos’ rookie. However, the future appears promising. 

Cushenberry is going to be an unrestricted free agent after the season, and his backup, Kyle Fuller, was signed to only a one-year deal. Cushenberry struggled with the injury bug last season, missing more than half of the year. 

Fuller didn’t start any games last season, but played in all 17. He is next in line if Cushenberry misses time. This leaves Forsyth on the outside looking in. 

If Forsyth displays versatility along the inside offensive line, he could get some time at guard. However, the chances of him starting any games as a rookie are slim.